A Beautiful Thread for the Beautiful Game

Yeah I saw that earlier on in the BBC news. It wouldn't really surprise me if it was true, given his stated record of setting fire to things, but it's probably best at the moment not to assume he DID do it. It's more likely stupidity rather than malice at this stage.

Although I don't understand the significance of the timings you've mentioned (I think you've probably put more effort into your system than the people who've made the actual system), the system sounds pretty good. I didn't understand how exactly this will ensure that promoted teams will stay up (Best Of mentioned the chances of your best players being bought, and the 90 million windfall doesn't seem to prevent the kind of yoyoing between leagues that tends to happen). I won't debate the IPL point because I simply don't have the time to watch - the tournament coincides perfectly with submissions month.

The specific timings are meant to avoid conflicting with matches in the Premier League, given that Sky and BT want to prioritize their cash-cow on the television sets over lower league matches. Also, by making placement in the playoffs matter, you'd be decreasing the amount of teams that don't deserve promotion and embarrass themselves a year later for it (a la 2007/2008 Derby and this year's QPR).

Speaking of which, it might be time to discuss this year's Championship’s Premier League hopefuls.

With only 2 points separating 1st from 4th, the race for Premier League promotion is the closest that I’ve ever seen in following soccer. The race for the final two playoff spots is pretty tight as well, with Brentford and Wolves needing only 2 points to nab 5th and 6th. Here are my verdicts on who are automatically going up, who will be going to the playoffs, and who will miss out and why.

• Bournemouth (Current Position: 1st)
  • Eddie Howe has done a phenomenal job in providing champagne soccer despite having a low budget and a stadium that can only fit 12,000 fans. When I heard about Bournemouth’s terrific run of form, I thought that they were going to poop out by April and end up in 9th or 10th place. When I saw the Cherries massacre Fulham at Craven Cottage after getting my master’s essay done, however, it became crystal clear that the Cherries were serious in their push for promotion thanks to their gung-ho, no-holds-barred attacking play-style. My only reservation to them hanging on to 1st, however, is that the players lack experience in clutch situations such as the final three games. On paper, their final three games should be comfortable as they face mid-table teams with nothing to play for. However, my Spider Sense is telling me that some of their players are going to buckle under pressure and there are a lot of similarities to Bournemouth and last year’s Liverpool which ended up losing their title at Selhurst Park. With regret, I believe that they are not going to get the final nine points needed to reach the top flight for the first time in their club’s history.
  • Verdict: Playoffs, but only just missing out on automatic promotion.

• Norwich City (Current Position: 2nd)
  • The Canaries shocked lots of Premier League followers when they were relegated at the Emirates last year. While their campaign got off to an inconsistent start, the appointment of Alexander Neil has done the trick in giving Norwich a second wind. Partially due to Neil’s attacking tactics, players such as Nathan Redmond and Bradley Johnson have enjoyed a spike in form at a critical time and they have been utterly unstoppable in the last two months. Moreover, unlike Fulham and Cardiff City, Norwich only lost 6 senior players and have a very similar starting 11 to that of their Premier League days. With a great new head coach, a boost in form, and consistency amongst the squad, I don’t believe that the Canaries are not going to make their first season back in the Championship their last in a very long time.
  • Verdict: Automatic Promotion

• Watford (Current Position: 3rd)
  • Watford has been a promotion contender for a while now and their head coach has done well to bring back excitement to Elton John’s club. With an international mix of players experience in playing in the top flight such as ex-Spurs keeper Heurelho Gomes and home-grown players eager to support their club, they have excited fans with an prowess for scoring goals and maintaining possession to starve their opponents. Unfortunately for Elton John, Watford is the last team I think of when it comes to consistency during times of high pressure. While they face two mid-table clubs and one relegation-threatened club, I could easily see the Hornets’s opponents maintaining solid defenses to prevent their forwards from creating opportunities. Watford buckled under pressure before and I got a bad feeling that they will buckle under pressure again.
  • Verdict: Playoffs

• Middlesbrough (Current Position: 4th)
  • Say what you will about his tactical similarities to Jose Mourinho, but Aitor Karanka has transformed Boro into a force to be reckoned with not just in the Championship, but in England in general. I, for one, am particularly impressed with the form of players such as Patrick Bamford and I think that lots of players in their squad are good enough to solidify Boro in the Premier League. That said, they still have to play against Norwich and Fulham, the former also fighting for automatic promotion and the latter threatening to crank a Wolves (back to back relegations from top flight to L1). I have no doubt that Boro will be in the top flight one way or another, but their next two games will make or break their season. For me, I think they have just about enough in them to break through.
  • Verdict: Automatic Promotion

• Derby County (Current Position: 5th)
  • Life has been tough for Steve McClaren without their talisman Chris Martin and my runaway favorite to be automatically promoted from the Championship is now saddled with the likelihood of facing another arduous postseason. The only tough fixture they have left is their road match at Millwall, a club notorious for their ability to get out of relegation trouble at the last minute and its fans’ hooliganism and racism. While I am not sure how they’ll win at the Den, their other two matches should be comfortable enough for them to get the results they want. A disappointing end of the season for the Rams, but they should be grateful that their squad (even without Chris Martin) is good enough to not be in the same situation as Blackpool, Wigan, Rotherham, Fulham, or Brighton.
  • Verdict: Playoffs

• Ipswich Town (Current Position: 6th)
  • Mick McCarthey’s side is back to winning ways after an indifferent run of form in February and March. With players like Tyrone Mings providing pace on the wings and Daryl Murphy and David McGoldrick providing Ipswich goals, the Tractor Boys have been making a last minute push for a playoff spot. However, Ipswich have been very inconsistent in their matches against mid-table opposition. They have the tools and the fixtures needed for them to advance to the playoffs, but I’m not sure how they will seriously threaten other teams in the playoff mix this year if they do advance. Regardless, they will have to win or draw against Wolves to solidify themselves in the last playoff spot which I think they’ll do… barely.
  • Verdict: Playoffs

• Brentford (Current Position: 7th)
  • In their first season in the Championship, the Bees have shown themselves to be a superb side. I can’t understand why the owners want to let their manager Mark Warburton go after this season, because the club has been very exciting to watch with their versatility and their excellent offense. The final three fixtures should bring them 9 points but I think the damage has been done to their playoff hopes with their last two draws against Nottingham Forest and Derby. They are 3 points behind Ipswich at the moment and if Ipswich gets points from their game against Wolverhampton, then it could be too late for the Bees to make it to the playoffs. A Bittersweet Ending to their season perhaps, but Brentford fans should keep their heads up as their club has done far better than what most people expected them to do in the Championship.
  • Verdict: Misses out, but only just.

• Wolverhampton Wanderers (Current Position: 8th)
  • Wolves have enjoyed solid performances in the last few months, but they couldn’t have chosen a worse time to enter in a rut. With back-to-back losses to Birmingham City and Boro, Kenny Jackett’s side are now 3 points behind Ipswich in the playoff spots. Speaking of which, all three of Wolves’ remaining matches will be against either promotion hopefuls or teams in the relegation zone. Lose any of the three and it’ll be over for Wolverhampton’s chances to go to the playoffs. Given that they have to face Ipswich this Saturday and Millwall on the final day, I can’t see Wolves successfully playing catch-up now.
  • Verdict: Misses out.

edited 16th Apr '15 10:01:15 AM by sanfranman91

Is the pushback against the SFA finally happening?

Hope so. Meanwhile more odious, nauseating, repugnant rhetoric from CONCACAF. Apparently Sepp "if you are looking for the definition of "corrupt bastard" in the dictionary, see here" Blatter, is like Nelson Mandela and Jesus:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32342080

Someone at CONCACAF has a chip on their shoulder.

edited 17th Apr '15 4:36:04 AM by Achaemenid

"The Trinidad & Tobago Football Association praised Blatter, 79, as the "father of football"."

Well, he's fucking old enough to be.

NotTheOnion.

Doublepost:

Vitória Guimarães 1-0 Braga

Well, after an almost-dry spell of a month and a half (which only included a win against a team that is close to the relegation places), we finally won a big game. And against our arch-nemesis/rivals to boot!

Assuming Belenenses doesn't win against Benfica, that means we'll keep a healthy distance from them (we're in fifth place). And since Braga is in fourth place, we shortened the distance between us and them (though we still have to wait for a couple of slip-ups from them in the next matches - it is unlikely they'll lose points, though).

I hope the team becomes more confident. We showed some decent agressiveness tonight, that's for sure.

So, FA Cup semi-final against Reading today. Last season Arsenal went into a semi-final against Wigan as favourites, but with Wigan having won the FA Cup the season before (the final was against Manchester City) and knocked City out again on their way to the semi-final, there was a distinct possibility of the lower-league side having an advantage.

Arsenal, though, were hungry after a season that was coming crashing down after long period of league dominance. Wigan got the first goal and it took Arsenal ages to catch up, and eventually it went to penalties. My most lasting memory of that game remains Källström's goal - almost the only contribution of the weirdest Arsenal signing of the last decade or so.

Reading don't look as threatening on paper as Wigan. Arsenal have won 16 of the 19 games (in all competition) they've played in 2015. This is a great run but of course there's the danger of complacency. Recent Arsenal sides would not have had the mental fortitude to win the nervy games against Burnley, Newcastle, Manchester United, and QPR. This side are showing - after shocking failures near the middle of the season against Anderlecht, Swansea, Stoke, and Manchester United - that they have the focus to hold on to a lead and know which risks to take.

Wenger hasn't rotated a lot over the past month or two, and this can be a problem. Currently there's no danger fitness-wise - with only a game a week there's ample time to rest - but players who can't get first-team football will decline and become unhappy. That's why I would do some rotation if I were in Wenger's boots, but also try to maintain a balance in the side. Here's who I'd send out there:

Szczesny
Debuchy-Mertesacker-Gabriel-Gibbs
Flamini-Arteta
Walcott-Wilshere-Welbeck
Giroud

Walcott and Gibbs would risk unbalancing the side by being so committed to attacking all the time. I've tried to correct for this by having both Flamini and Arteta in the line-up to hold the midfield against counter-attacks. All of these players need football sooner rather than later, just to keep match fit.

I've picked Debuchy because he's back from injury and needs to play, and a cup game is a good opportunity to come back. He'd also bring a more defensive element than Bellerin to account for Walcott's reluctance to track back.

At left-back I've gone with Gibbs. Monreal has been on great form recently but I still prefer Gibbs. He attacks too much at times but when the opposition have the midfield clogged it can make all the difference to have full-backs surging forward to add some options for the man on the ball to pass forwards. Welbeck works hard and needs to play some more. I know he'd prefer a go centrally but I wanted to rest Alexis and I didn't want to rotate Giroud out at the moment because he adds a defensive element in set pieces. Welbeck can cover for Gibbs a bit, but they do need their defensive midfielder to bail them out if they lose the ball in the opponent's third.

I wanted to rest Özil and Cazorla even though much of Arsenal's recent fluency is based on them. Instead I've opted for Arteta as a deep-lying playmaker when he's not defending, and Wilshere as the central link between the flanks and Giroud. This does make for a midfield that can be defeated by superior manpower, but the idea is that the front-3 will roam constantly to keep defenders running while Gibbs and Debuchy advance to add movement and options in the build-up.

Wilshere must resist heavy tackles, retaining the ball under pressure. That can be his weakness at times but I get the feeling he'd be stronger now because he's itching to get back in the squad and playing at #10 he'd have a healthy dose of pressure and an opportunity to play to his strengths.

Diaby, unfortunately, has no place in the squad at the moment. He's been out so long it's hard to justify shoehorning him in when so many players are waiting to get a shot at first-team football. I hate that his time at Arsenal will end like this but I can't for the life of me claim that he deserves a new contract. There aren't many places open for next season's squad, anyway. Because if all this I'd have Coquelin on the bench as cover for Arteta and Flamini.

Monreal, Bellerin, and Chambers would be the defenders on the bench. One could argue that Chambers needs a game more than Mertesacker, but since I've already rotated Koscielny - Arsenal's best defender at the moment - out of the line-up I'd keep Mertesacker in to retain a bit of consistency in the side. Gabriel has had a promising start to his Arsenal career and I'd have no problem trusting him.

Last season Wenger had the second-choice goalkeeper starting the cup games, and this season hasn't been any different. With Ospina firmly established as the 'keeper in league games Szczesny can play the cup fixtures to stay hot. Ospina would be on the bench. (Martinez has been loaned out.)

In addition to Coquelin, the substitute midfielder would be either Cazorla, Özil, or Rosicky. I actually have a very hard time deciding whether to start Rosicky or Wilshere, but I'm opting for youth rather than experience because of the already high age of the midfield I've picked. Özil and Cazorla would get a rest.

With Welbeck, Giroud, and Walcott already in the squad the final forward option is Alexis. He could replace any of the front-3 if necessary. Rosicky and Wilshere can slot in at either flank, as well; so if Giroud needs to come off Welbeck or Walcott can step in at centre-forward.

Thus my bench would be Ospina, Bellerin, Chambers, Monreal, Coquelin, Rosicky, and Alexis.

This might very well be the final Arsenal game for Flamini and Arteta - at least for the season, and quite possibly their career, as well. I think they'd be aware of that possibility, and would want to leave a good impression. Rosicky might also have similar thoughts if he was to play. Walcott and Szczesny are currently subject of intense speculation, with the former in contract negotiations again with the club. They'd want to prove that they're Arsenal's future. I hope this pressure on so many key players in the squad would result in a hunger that could match that of Reading.

Now that I've picked my starting XI I might as well list what I think Wenger will actually go with:

Szczesny
Debuchy-Gabriel-Koscielny-Monreal
Coquelin-Cazorla
Ramsey-Özil-Alexis
Welbeck

He's reluctant to rotate so he'd mostly stick to a winning formula, testing the patience of a number of players who think they should start. I think he'd choose Koscielny over Mertesacker to retain consistency.

Ramsey would bring balance, with Özil, Alexis, Cazorla, and Welbeck roaming and switching positions to create a fluctuating attacking unit that would be hard to defend against.

Coquelin, of course, has been very reliable - statistically he's the best defensive players in the Premier League since he returned to the first-team in December - but I'd argue he needs to sit out a game every once in a while, both to stay fit and to maintain at least some rotation.

I have Wenger picking Welbeck to keep the striker happy. Giroud would be a strong option on the bench, but his defensive contribution in set pieces would be missed until he comes on.

Well, this should be fun to watch.

Heart of Midlothian's local rivals/Butt-Monkey of Scottish football Hibernian FC have crashed out of the Scottish Cup with a 1-0 loss to Falkirk, making it 113 years since Hibs last won the tournament.

How does that fine chant go?

edited 18th Apr '15 10:11:20 AM by Achaemenid

I guessed Wenger's line-up almost entirely correctly. He picked Gibbs over Monreal, though - as I hoped he would.

Sanchez is the only goalscorer at half-time. A very nervy game, with both sides managing long-ish periods of ball possession.

The second half will be more open, as Reading can't afford to just keep clogging the midfield and hoping for the best. They'll have to push.

Arsenal leading 1-0 at half time. English commentators being stupid idiots (again) apparently. lol I'm watching it with non-English commentary, and even without understanding it you can easily feel that they aren't stupid idiots (mainly because they even said on air what BFG meant LOL).

edited 18th Apr '15 10:14:45 AM by entropy13

Mertesacker off for Gabriel. Reading have equalised.

Yeah, that's another bit I guessed wrong about Wenger's selection - Arsenal started with Koscielny and Mertesacker. It took until 63 minutes for the Gabriel-Koscielny pairing I had expected to get on.

1-1. Going to extra time... The referee has favoured Arsenal a bit, to be honest. I'll feel sorry for Reading if they lose after such a focused performance.

Reading 1 - 2 Arsenal after 120 minutes. Alexis scored his and Arsenal's second at the end of first half of extra time.

Deserved victory in the end for Arsenal - they took their time getting into the game but in the end they managed to put together enough dominance to get the goals they needed.

Szczesny was a bit disappointing, as was Welbeck. Özil and Alexis impressed the most. Gibbs also looked a little bit out of it, but I'm sure that'd be remedied with a bit of playing time over the coming weeks. Debuchy was solid.

edited 18th Apr '15 11:55:59 AM by BestOf

Congrats on making it 2 for 2 on Finals appearances, Best Of and Entropy.

Yeah, while I thought Reading and Arsenal were pretty even, it was ultimately Adam Federici that did his Championship side in during extra time. While I feel bad for the Australian, I'm glad that we saw an exciting semifinal. In the final, we'll see either the Gunners either win back-to-back FA Cup titles, Stevie G getting his well-deserved farewell FA Cup title, or Tim Sherwood winning the first title in his promising managing career. Should be fun regardless.

edited 18th Apr '15 12:50:56 PM by sanfranman91

SUPER CALEY GO BALLISTIC, CELTIC ARE ATROCIOUS!

Inverness Caledonian Thistle 3 - 2 Glasgow Celtic

Hahahaha. What a stunning result. That's Celtic's treble hopes hosed now.

You know, if Rangers and Hibs don't go up, this will be one of those rare seasons where you can feel just as much schadenfreude at your rivals as pride in your own team.

Should be a good final. The SFA must be furious. Hope Falkirk win it. They've played so well against HMFC this season and it looks like they'll miss out on promotion, so hope they can grab some silverware nevertheless.

EDIT: And it looks like St Mirren are going get relegated too. God is a Jambo.

edited 19th Apr '15 8:00:03 AM by Achaemenid

Might have known it would be Inverness Caley that would hose the treble chance for Celtic this year. They're a bogey club for the Bhoys.

Gooner Tim is in the FA Cup Final lol

So, turns out Chelsea are almost one billion pounds in debt.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3016432/Club-club-guide-Premier-League-s-financial-health.html

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the EPL is crazy.

So when did RA go bust then?

If there was any justice Chelsea would now have to go 10 seasons where they have to make a profit in the transfer market. Meanwhile, Arsenal have emerged from the stadium debt and will be able to buy about one Özil/Sanchez a season (assuming they'll keep selling players either from the fringe of the squad or on the decline). Manchester United will keep pushing on as usual after a season or two of not-quite making a title challenge (and I'm including this season in that transition period).

EDIT:

...WAIT.

So while I was counting votes (it was election day in Finland) Aston Villa beat Liverpool in the FA Cup semi-final?

Liverpool would've been a fun opponent but obviously Arsenal have a better chance of beating Aston Villa, especially after the previous Premier League result between Aston Villa and Arsenal. After failing so miserably in the league and Champions League - let alone the League Cup - the FA Cup is Arsenal's only chance for a trophy this year and I believe Villa can make the game fun without being quite as much of a final boss as Liverpool would've been.

I almost don't care that we got a fucking horrible election result again. Almost.

edited 19th Apr '15 2:54:45 PM by BestOf

No, before it's just one "big" buy ala Ozil and not much else, AND have to sell (and BEFORE that it was have to sell to buy, but not at Ozil/Sanchez levels). Right now it's one Ozil/Sanchez per season AND still afford to buy Welbeck, as well as Gabriel in the winter transfer window.

wait what

Arsenal 2005 or so - c. 2013:

• Have to sell the player with the highest transfer value
• Can't refuse any sale at above £20 million or so
• Can only buy inexpensive squad players or youth prospects at cut rates.

This is similar to what the likes of Swansea, Southampton, and Newcastle are doing now. That's where Arsenal was during those years. Note that before Özil Arsenal's record transfer fee was the 2008 purchase of Arshavin at about £15 million. Arsenal could only afford that because they had sold Henry.

After 2013 it became:

• Can afford to refuse to sell anyone
• Can afford to buy one star a season
• Can strengthen squad with players around the £10-£20 million range

Selling is now a matter of trimming the squad to fit within the 25 registered players, rather than not being able to refuse any sale at the going rate. This sort of stability is vital because Arsenal no longer have to worry about key players leaving because the club can't afford to keep them.