The Arab Spring

Doesn't Jordan have enough problems of their own? Stuff they're barely papering over?

I doubt their flirting with democratic reforms would combine well with a new mass of territory.

Most of their difficulties are due to lack of resources. Gaining Syrian oil fields and the banks of the Euphrates would mitigate that issue somewhat.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Pipe dreams. Nice ones, but still. The ethnic cleansing began under our watch, and we allowed it to happen. We always pick the easiest path, and it comes back to bite us.

If we could get rid of Daesh as the governing force in the territory they hold, we could put some sort of "Confederation of Semi-Independent Regions" together, but not looking likely right now.

Daesh could easily be removed as the *governing* force with the help of local elites. What's nigh-impossible for the moment is removing them entirely. Although with a group like ISIS, the foreign fighters only hang around until there's a new fad. If they are pressed hard enough in Mesopotamia, next year they'll all migrate to Libya, or Afghanistan, or Yemen.

The problem is quite solvable, the question seems to be one of willpower and motivation. ISIS tends to fight against people who, when push comes to shove, aren't that interested in fighting back. When they run into foes who are as motivated as they are, they tend to come off on the wrong end, which is why they've gotten about as far as they're going to get in either Iraq or Syria.

Indeed.

Nothing pipe dream about it. More of a pipe dream to think these people will want to live together even in a confederation after this war. You underestimate what this war has done for the long term.

edited 28th May '15 11:02:01 PM by FFShinra

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

It is indeed a pipe dream,as much as I would like to see a bow tie country, Iraq seems to have decided to outright subjugate the Sunni areas.

ISIS wooing ISIS alternates between sticks and Carrots in Palmyra. They seem more concentrated on establishing Palmyra as an outpost of their Caliphate than destroying the ruins.

edited 29th May '15 6:23:59 AM by JackOLantern1337

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.

The local elites have no reason to want to get rid of Daesh. Indeed, I suspect that they only managed to take these towns because they were invited to. And then there's the possibility, maybe probability, that Daesh has, or will, grow too strong for the local elites to control anymore. Wont be the first time that happened.

I figure Assad would have purged anyone he felt would go over to ISIS. That said apparently quite a few residents have relatives in ISIS.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/05/empire-imperialism-kaplan-ottoman-150528072223218.html

This is a nice read, usually AJE blames the US, Europe and Israel for everything but this op-ed was quite fair over how the Ottoman empire fell and the overreach of the Colonial Powers and US contributed with messing up the region.

Inter arma enim silent leges

Fighting has resumed in Aden between Houthis and Hirak. Also, the Houthis have killed the (Hadi-appointed) Governor of Sana'a in an armed clash.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Oh right didn't Hirak take a city from the Houthi's recently or something?

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.

ad-Dali, capital of the eponymous governorate, north of Lahij.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Four Americans are imprisoned in Sana'a.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Special Forces Launch Cyber Attack on IS

Keep Rolling On

Sounds positive. And I've not seen many places in which the word 'evil' has been used as appropriately as this. Though I am a bit leery about the article's source.

There are consequences to a terrorist organisation being so online...

edited 31st May '15 3:26:17 AM by betaalpha

And the article itself acts as weapon, that can make IS members paranoid about their own. Infiltrators everywhere!

Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele

Mubarak's old party headquarters is being torn down. The land will be used to expand the near by Egyptian Museum.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.

Thanks To Extremism, Iraqis Revive Ancient Religion

Welcome to Estalia, gentlemen.

Calling it a Kurdish-specific religion is definitely nationalism gone a wee bit stupid. (Actually, AFAIK the largest Zoroastrian community in the world right now are the Parsis in India.)

But I'm all for seeing the religion have a bit of a renaissance. Historically, the religion had a very strong tradition of tolerance, and I'm glad to see it being picked up again today.

I wonder what happens if the movement spreads to Iran, though. Doesn't Iran have apostasy laws?

edited 31st May '15 9:50:22 PM by Ramidel

Considering the direct impact Zoroastrian had on all the Abrahamic religions, wouldn't it be Of the Book enough to have some leeway? (Not counting idiots who ignore that as it is.)

Not really. Putting aside the whole "Zoroastrianism influenced the Abrahamic religions" thing (which I've always found a rather nebulous claim, IMHO), it was still around when Islam emerged, and was overthrown when the Arabs conquered Persia. It was denounced as nothing more than "fire worship" (IIRC, that was based on how Salman al-Farsi, a Persian-born Companion who converted from Zoroastrianism to Islam, described his previous faith).

edited 1st Jun '15 12:33:43 AM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Are you kidding? Where do you think the notion of demons and angels subservient to the real top dogs came from in the first place?

And, never trust a fresh convert: they'll simplify like crazy during the "I was so stupid for thinking that" phase.

More importantly: think long and hard about which local, organised religion early Islam seriously butted heads with in the region. There was a lot of mileage to be made in trying to downplay the similarities and emphasising the shiny, new differences.

edited 1st Jun '15 1:10:16 AM by Euodiachloris

From prior monotheist religions espoused by the past prophets and messengers that are recognized in Islamic teachings, naturally. Zoroaster is not named among them, if you're curious.

If you would not trust a fresh convert on faithfully assessing and describing his former religion, then who would you trust?

... Christianity was technically local to the region, in that it originated in the region of Palestine (hence why Jerusalem is a holy place for Christians) and there were quite a few Arab Christians around. Yet you don't see Islam denying its connections to both it and Judaism (or Abraham's effectively nameless religion, or the many other religions preached by the many past prophets and messengers that Islam recognizes).

---

EDIT: OK, seems like I need to double-check my info on Zoroastrianism. This part is news to me, though I need to properly confirm the sources cited here.

edited 1st Jun '15 1:22:15 AM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Yeah, I think you do need to do a little comparative study, mate. After all, if, say (hypothetically, mind you) "Ahura Mazda" were just another name for God... See?

Zoroastrianism was a darned sight more organised than either the early Catholic or Orthodox Churches were when Islam was really expanding. Also note the ethnic and political implications of who was basically organising it...

Yes, Zoroastrians were indeed granted dhimmi status by Umar.

Slightly moot in the current situation, though. Kurdistan uses the Western definition of religious freedom, while if ISIS catches the converts, they'll be apostates rather than People of the Book - the only Zoroastrians they'd probably grant protection to would be, say, if ISIS conquered Iran or India (it's hypothetical, bear with me).