The Arab Spring

Yemen ceasefire: dead before it started

For the second time. No surprise, neither side is ready to quit.

I just still have to wonder what Saudia's endgame is, here. The Houthi aren't going to go away for anything short of a land invasion followed by a savage counterinsurgency operation (and that's assuming that both of those ops would be successful). The logical goal for the Saudis would just be to put the hurt on them until they are willing to negotiate, but negotiate with whom? They can't be deluded enough to think that Hadi will come back.

It looks like there is no endgame here. "Bomb the question until it goes away" appears to be their approach.

They could be wanting to put the old royal family back in power, but I suspect that there is no long term plan and that is right with it being the "bomb stuff until the problem goes away" way.

Personally, my theory is that it's simply Salman's dementia speaking.

Except its his 30 year old son personally planning and leading the campaign. Salman merely gave his okay to do so.

I think if the Houthis win Aden (and they are very close), that may stop the pretence of putting Hadi back in power, but as for peace...who knows.

Oh BTW, Mubarak got 3 years for corruption. Slap on the wrist if there ever was one....

He should have gotten at least the same sentence as Morsi and die in prison.

But Morsi is one of Those People The Military Don't Like. Mubarak is a fine upstanding citizen who just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Now watch Mubarak's sentence get commuted to house arrest out of humanitarian leniency, or parole, or whatnot. Because Sisi is merciful, you see.

The guy is in his 80s, right? I mean, Henri-Philip Petain got similar treatment for doing something a whole lot worse.

But at least Petain saved his own country beforehand, that had more to do with the leniency than anything else. Mubarak will be released purely because the government doesn't really care about punishing him.

edited 11th May '15 8:55:22 PM by Rationalinsanity

Report on increased use of child soldiers in Yemen, in all factions. Not surprising, given the youth bulge.

A Moroccan F-16 and a Saudi AH-64 have been lost over Yemen. The Houthis claim to have captured the crew of the AH-64 alive, while the F-16's pilot is believed to be dead.

edited 12th May '15 4:50:36 AM by Krieger22

It would be nice if the Houthis managed to gain some leverage for future negotiations with the Saudis, but alas the AH-64 seems to have managed to return to Saudi-controlled territory.

Also, losing one helicopter is hardly the Battle of Stalingrad.

I can see the Morrocans using this as an excuse to bow out though. Fighter jets are glamourous. And expensive.

Especially when they're less than five years old, as Morocco's batch of F-16s are...

Jesus Christ this happens with Jordan and now Morocco. American made aircraft must really be unreliable pieces of crap.

No aircraft can survive being shot down — the F-16 isn't, and was never designed to be, something like the A-10^note  Not that many Air Forces can afford a specialist aircraft like the A-10.

edited 12th May '15 11:17:13 AM by Greenmantle

Why are your expectations so high? The F-16 is not some kind of nigh-invulnerable super jet.

Most military equipment will break if you shoot it.

Especially if they're using iron bombs instead of expensive PGMs.

Might get the wealthy Arab militaries the kick in the pants they need not to waste money on equipment for its own sake and instead buy what they actually need.

In this case, NOT an F-16.