The Arab Spring

The Saudis are intensifying their airstrikes on the Houthis after the shelling of Saudi border towns

[War Crimes intensify]

edited 6th May '15 11:02:39 AM by AngelusNox

This is not gonna end well at all. The Houthis are burning a lot of goodwill they earned from overthrowing Hadi within Yemen if they keep shelling the crap out of civillian vessels...

They are already hated in Aden. Killing more Southerns won't make a difference.

Was anyone under the illusion they were "good"? Same flavor different brand.

More often than not those armed revolutions and violent take overs have the "freedom fighters" to turn against the population shares they don't like violently.

Yeah, the Houthis had something resembling a moral high ground, especially if they had left Aden after smacking around the Hadi-aligned forces, then you just entrench and sit back and wait for an international mediator to fix things. Counterattacking simply gives credence to the Saudi narrative that these people are a threat and justifies Saudia's meddling.

Even though the main reason for Saudi meddling is not wanting to have the (current?) Saudi friendly government replaced by one under Iranian influence and is largely seen as a Shia/Iranian proxy in a Sunni majority country.

This only gives the Saudis some resemblance of legitimacy for their actions.

edited 6th May '15 11:24:20 AM by AngelusNox

The Saudis are a threat to them and the world is either siding with the Saudis or remains neutral. Unless the Saudi coalition stops their military campaign, the Houthis have no reason to let their enemies have a secure beachhead in the south.

edited 6th May '15 11:21:53 AM by GrandPrincePaulII

Sadly true, from a military perspective.

They ain't really Iranian proxies. They're Shia, but they're Fivers, not Twelvers. Not to mention by virtue of being Yemeni, they reall don't answer to anyone outside their lands, even if they take advantages of opportunities being offered.

Also, the government may have been Saudi friendly, but they did absolutely nothing to resolve the people's concerns, largely leaving in place the Saleh-era status quo. Hence the political capital the Houthis gained by overthrowing Hadi.

Also sadly true.

edited 6th May '15 11:29:33 AM by FFShinra

Yeah, about that

It is nearly the same thing Iran does for Hezbollah

Them being Shia alone is enough to put the Sunnis at unease, them being funded by Iran puts the Saudis on the "Oh fuck no!" territory.

edited 6th May '15 11:38:30 AM by AngelusNox

The second paragraph of that Reuters article shows exactly why I don't jump at the sensationalism. I'd also note that Shias and Sunnis within Yemten don't really have the same aminosity as they do in, say, Iraq.

Also, the support being described is from after the coup. The Houthis got into power all by themselves. That Iran is now trying to get influence with them is unsurprising, but it does not equal control because the Houthis are not beholden to Iran in the first place and because Yemenis are notoriously wary of foreign influence (another reason the Hadi government was deposed). The Houthis are merely taking advantage of it, the same way they are taking advantage of Saleh's loyalist forces.

Saudi Arabia could have easily courted the Houthis themselves if they had bothered at the time.

In short, Iran might want another Hezbollah, but they ain't gonna get it.

edited 6th May '15 11:38:11 AM by FFShinra

It is too soon to say they won't be under severe Iranian influence, specially when Iran can pull What Have You Done for Me Lately? due to the materiel and financial support and if the Houthis don't become complacent towards Iranian interests, they may as well paint targets over their heads for Saudi bombers.

Even if it is after the overthrown, they have been receiving support from Iran for a while, which they would make much harder for them to make their achievements without them.

Most of their achievements, post-coup, have been attributed to Saleh actually, using men and material that were still loyal to him within the (western-equipped and funded) Yemeni Army. Indeed, since most of the Saudi airstrikes are hitting Saleh loyalist units and facilities, all this air campaign has really done is make Saleh less of an asset, which is fine for Houthis consider he himself was once their enemy.

Iran may be giving some support, but again, they have no leverage with the Houthis.

EDIT- I'd also like to warn against posting anything from Gulf Arab sources like Al Jazeera (or sources quoting Al Jazeera). They have had a vested interest to make it seem like the Houthis are agents of Iran long before the coup, without evidence.

edited 6th May '15 11:58:37 AM by FFShinra

Do you have another news sources I can read? Aside Reuters and BBC the AJE is my balance to the Western media outlets.

Also, I don't think the Saudis would be all too happy to be the sugar daddies of a Shia led group, given the history of how aggressive the House of Saud is against the Shia.

I'm well aware the Qatari funded AJE would have some bones to pick against Iran, but at this time it is virtually undeniable the Iranians have their hands in this mess, just less overtly than the bomb happy Saudis.

edited 6th May '15 12:03:13 PM by AngelusNox

They do post-coup. But Reuters (which is a trustworthy source, generally) even admitted they don't know the level of support that exists post coup. And no one has given evidence of anything prior to the coup.

Also, Saudia has, in fact, been an ally of Yemeni Shi'ites in the past. They supported the royalists (who were not only Shia but actual religious leaders too, with the title of Imam) during the North Yemeni Civil War that had deposed them and replaced them with a Nasserist dictatorship (naturally backed by Egypt) that eventually gave the world Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Well, given that the Saudis are going into the Yemeni fight, the Houthis are Iranian proxies by definition.

Iran may or may not care about the Houthis, but the latter are shooting at the Saudis and the Saudis' allies. More to the point, religiously and ideologically, as far as I can tell the Houthis have no reason to not be at least moderately friendly toward Iran, so it's not like Iran supporting the Houthis is likely to backfire on them a la America supporting the mujahideen in Afghanistan.

Given that, Iran has every incentive to turn Yemen into a decade-long quagmire, ideally just around the time that the House of Saud has to figure out how they're going to reform their succession mechanism.

Mind you, wasn't Iran involved in Oman before the Revolution?

The Shah sent troops to help the Sultan put down a revolt. Said Sultan was eventually overthrown by his own son,who offered amnesty for all rebels who surrendered,and crushed the ones who didn't. Apparently Oman is quite well off now,compared to the other nations in the regions anyhow.

I know . The Dhofar Rebellion was one of Britain's "Little Wars" in that period.

Wrong thread.

edited 6th May '15 2:30:26 PM by Quag15

@Ramidel - Like I said, it's no surprise Iran will try. But the Houthis really don't give a damn what happens beyond their borders, and indeed only shot at the Saudis after the Saudis already started bombing them.

If its becoming a sectarian war, thats more due to Riyadh than anything else.

And no, just because the Saudis are fighting them, it does not make them Iranian proxies, because a proxy implies some kind of control to the power they are supposedly a proxy of, which Tehran does not have. Is the Saudi intervention useful to Iran? Of course. But that doesn't mean the Houthis are under their control.

The Saudis have dropped leaflets stating that they will consider Saada an enemy military zone beginning at 7 p.m. (noon ET) Friday.

They've previously proposed a 5 day ceasefire for humanitarian aid to arrive as well, apparently.

The Houthis didn't heed it last time, they won't this time either.

Oman's role in the Yemen conflict

Wise statesmanship from Oman.

The Houthis have agreed to the five-day truce.

Cue the Iranians sending a cargo ship loaded with humanitarian aid to Yemen. Even if they were sincere, this won't go over well with the Saudis.

Muammar Gaddafi's son Saadi has appeared in a Libyan court on murder charges.

EDIT: The ceasefire didn't stop the Saudis from trying to get some last airstrikes in, and the Houthis allege that the airstrikes have destroyed the tomb of the Houthis' historic leader and damaged the Imam Hadi mosque.

edited 10th May '15 8:35:47 AM by Krieger22