The Arab Spring

Like I said, we should totally dump the Saudi's in the future, but right now Iran is far to unreliable,remember these guys have used death to America as their national chant for years. And to be frank Iran is kicking Saudi Arabia's ass in the Sunni Shia cold war, and the last thing we need is for the Saudi's to completely collapse.

In fairness you (alongside us) did stage a coup to overthrow their democratically elected government and install a brutal dictator, they're allowed to still be kinda pissed.

Also didn't the US once shoot down a a civilian airliner with 254 Iranian civilians on it? Iran might chant death to America but I'd suspect that the US government is responsible for a lot more Iranian dead than the Iranian one is US dead.

And I think the Captain and crew of the ship got rewarded or at least weren't punished for it. Yeah, Tehran has plenty of legitimate grievances with the US and it's allies.

Yeah. However, Iran is also on track to becoming a country that might mend fences with America. Not to mention undergoing a growing wave of democratization and liberalization.

Among the Iranian public, they have huge grievances with our government, but tend to consider the American people to be as much victims as anything. "Death to America" has mostly been a refrain from groups with about as much credibility as Joe Biden. (Ahmadinejad is out of power and has roughly the reputation of George W. Bush.)

Well technically their brutal dictator was in power before we overthrew their prime minister,but the overthrow allowed the Shah to amass more power. Also, as I recall being told, it was Musavi who struck first,reacting to the US convincing the Shah to dismiss him. And finally, and in an ironic twist, one of the groups that supported the coup the most were the Mullah's who now rule Iran,they viewed Communism as a threat. Also, the Iranians have backed terrorist attacks against US troops in Lebanon, backed insurgents against our troops in Iraq, and a whole host of other incidents.

And finally, I was not talking about the Iranians right to be peeved,but the fact that they wouldn't be a good ally.

Edit: Like I said, we should kick the Saudi's to the curb in time, and mend fences with Iran. But skrewing over the KSA so publicly and even before the nuclear agreement is finalized is just asking for trouble. In addition,like I said, Iran has been kicking Saudi Arabia's ass in this Cold War,and the KSA desperately needs a victory to balance things out.

Edit 2: As for the death to America thing, I remember CNN saying that it was normal, in particular it was said, and I am paraphrasing, "more out of habit than hate", in the aftermath of the nuclear framework deal, this was then joked about on Last Week Tonight.

Edit 3: And of course who could forget them storming our Embassy, and taking the staff hostage.

edited 21st Apr '15 5:52:01 PM by JackOLantern1337

@Jack

The Shah was not a brutal dictator until after we overthrew Mossadegh. If we hadn't, we'd be looking at another Jordan right now, perhaps more constitutional, rather than a theocracy.

The KSA should choose its battles more wisely then. This was a red herring and Iran was laughing all the way to the bank because, regardless of what the western media is saying, they weren't propping up the Houthis, at least not until after they had already seized Sana'a. For the same reason (alongside domestic troubles), the Pakistanis balked. Egypt was already getting wary of being drawn BACK to their Vietnam. The US was saving King Salman from himself more than anything else. Nothing "kick to the curb" about it. Which, by the way, we shouldn't do if we're smart in the long term.

So it was joked about on LWT. Doesn't make it any less true. The Houthis had the same slogan and they were kicking AQAP's ass. The US's own special forces based in Yemen were appalled we were letting Riyadh have their way with them.

Yeah, that's called a revolution. Shit like that happens. It was idiocy on our part to keep them in so long after the Shah was overthrown (which was not at the same time).

Anyway, glad they halted. However, the only thing that changes on the ground is that Saleh is weakened, which means the Houthis might cut ties with him soon enough. And if not, the dear former president now knows who his friends are and will likely do a bit of spring cleaning....

Video of an alleged Saudi airstrike on a Houthi weapons depot. Colour balance on the video is screwed, like a particularly infamous picture...

EDIT: The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister thinks that a ceasefire in Yemen can be reached in "the coming hours".

edited 22nd Apr '15 2:20:05 AM by Krieger22

Because obviously it was too much to expect a major Middle Eastern player to do the sensible thing and quit while he was ahead, sweet holy mother of god Salman is sending in his ground troops instead. Guess this is what happens when you have an absolute monarch with dementia.

And I thought our foreign policy was confused.

Damnit Saudi Arabia.

Good luck to the poor guardsmen getting sent into this mess...

I've heard that the young defence minister of KSA might try to use this intervention in order to improve his position in the looming succession struggle once the current king dies.

Speaking of a possible reconciliation between the Iran and USA, do you think this would be possible in the long-term? I mean the pro-Israel lobby is still strong in the USA and they probably would not approve of such a change in American foreign policy.

I do think so, but it will need a lot of work on both sides - both in terms of convincing themselves that the other site isn't evil and in terms of working together.

I guess Salman wants to start off where Ibn Saud ended....

Dawn is reporting that Prime Minister Sharif and the Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Raheel Sharif (no relation) are heading to Riyadh tomorrow.

Well that can't be coincidence...

Do note that while the Air and Land Forces (which were running the Yemen campaign and announced that they would disengage) are under the authority of the Saudi Defence Ministry, while the National Guard (which has announced that it's going in) is directly under royal command. Looks like Salman is overruling his ministers here.

edited 22nd Apr '15 7:42:12 AM by Iaculus

The defence minister is his own son. That must make for awkward dinner conversation...

And, it's going to backfire horribly. I really cannot see this turning out at all well. For anybody. -_-

edited 22nd Apr '15 7:48:22 AM by Euodiachloris

Yemen is the true Arab Vietnam.

If they were to move into Hadhramaut, they'd have an easier time of it, but if they try to move into the highlands, their fucked.

Hands up anybody who sees a quiet, in-House coup as a faction of the Family tries to put up a firewall...

edited 22nd Apr '15 7:54:29 AM by Euodiachloris

Salman might be forced into early retirement if he pisses off too many members of the family. It's happened before.

It's only speculation that this is in-house disputes. Well-grounded speculation, but still speculation.

Or you know, sending in troops to reinforce Aden, which last I heard was under siege.

I thought Aden was basically already gutted, aside from a few holdouts.

Sending troops to Aden would only succeed in liberating Aden. They tread further inland, they're fucked. And taking Aden would not be a cakewalk either.

Tis. But that won't stop anyone. Too symbolic.

edited 22nd Apr '15 7:56:19 AM by FFShinra

I don't mean right now (although, when it comes to the Sauds, the surface is always calmer than the currents). But, if things start really going pear-shaped, I think somebody is "going to have to retire on health grounds".