The Arab Spring

Hopefully at least the inevitable clusterfuck shakes things up enough in the Kingdom that reform actually becomes possible, and where's Marq in all this.

You can bet the US is going to get caught in the backlash too.

Really, the closest analogy that springs to mind are the conservative powers after the 1848 Spring of Nations. GCC is stamping on every potential hint of a challenge to their power.

edited 26th Mar '15 9:04:40 AM by SabresEdge

In all due fairness, what passes for a government in Yemen did call for this intervention, and it's not like the Houthies have the backing of most of the people.

But they have the backing of many of the rural citizens of their part of the country. They're deserving of certain rights, at any rate.

They have the backing of most of former North Yemen. For them, that's enough. And Hadi has far less of a mandate by comparison.

This is a seriously bad misstep. Oman, as usual, is playing it smart.

edited 26th Mar '15 12:02:45 PM by FFShinra

Oman seems to have the most astute foreign policy of the Middle East, to be honest.

By minding their own damn business and staying out of others?

Of course, we could point to statements like this as ignorance in the future, if Sultan Qaboos' death in the next 5-15 years causes the whole country to go to shit.

I never said this wouldn't explode in their faces, just pointing out that the narrative of the forum seems to be that this is an act of naked aggression, and while I enjoy making jokes at the expense of the Saudi's and the other gulf states, we do have to acknowledge that the last thing we need is another failed state in the Middle East.

Yes. In the Middle East, often the safest winning move is not to play. Oman is blessed by relative geographic isolation and small oil reserves. They've leveraged those advantages to become relatively prosperous and stable.

Eh, I think Qaboos' death is more likely to result in modernization or reform.

The cat is well out of the bag there.

edited 26th Mar '15 1:26:43 PM by Achaemenid

Oman got kinda nasty during the Arab Spring though, the focal points of the protests in Oman was a roundabout, they just went and demolished the roundabout and built a highway over it.

I thought that was Bahrain? Oman was one of the more okay ones.

And Oman doesn't stay out of others business, they act like the Swiss, as the broker to all the other sides in the conflict, notably the rest of the Gulf and Iran. The fact that they are neither Shia nor Sunni helps in this matter, but mits just as likely their location is what compels them, given they'd be sandwiched in an Arab-Persian war.

EDIT-

Qaboos himself is a modernizer, so I dunno if his death would speed it up or slow it down. Depends on who succeeds him since he's fairly ill these days.

Also, some news: Seems Egypt is sending the navy to help the offensive. Might even become a ground war.

edited 26th Mar '15 2:58:39 PM by FFShinra

He was a modernizer when the British Vader'ed Said for being useless forty-five years ago. Oman these days is governed fairly responsibly, but its hardly modern.

edited 26th Mar '15 3:17:08 PM by Achaemenid

Bahrain demolished the Pearl roundabout monument but I believe the roundabout itself still exists. I actually used the images of both destroyed roundabout centres for a uni assignment recently.

The BBC said something about Egypt having used Chemical weapons in Yemen during the 60's any truth to that?

@Achaemenid - Fair point.

Even still, I think on the whole, it didn't get dinged too badly.

US drops leaflets on Raqqa.

The leaflets have a nasty cartoon about Da'esh on them, showing clerics feeding young men into a meatgrinder.

Perhaps the PSYWAR people can revive the the old◊ classics.◊ "The Caliphate has no roof".

EDIT: IS apparently have a national anthem.

Arabs are parodying it.

You can listen to it here.

Personally, I think as far as the black clad genocidal fanatics glee club competition goes, the Waffen-SS have nothing to fear.

edited 26th Mar '15 5:23:49 PM by Achaemenid

What next, a legislature?

edited 26th Mar '15 6:35:33 PM by FFShinra

Legislatures are blasphemous to them, apparently. If it ain't the words of the Quran, it can't be law, so why would we need anyone beyond clerics to interpret the law?

legislatures with power are haram. "consultative bodies" are fine.

edited 26th Mar '15 8:43:41 PM by FFShinra

The royal family of North Yemen, long since exiled, has returned. What they do next is unknown.

I was not expecting that. Are they still powerful (as in, have connections with the various groups and tribes in the area)?

The credentials the Houthis claim from a tribal perspective? The royal family has that and more. The Houthi clan used to pledge their alliegance to these guys, so at least by tribal custom, they have some power, which does mean something in Yemen.

Of course that alone won't be enough, they'll need some charisma and some strength of arms to help them.

What I'm curious about is, since they were exiled in Saudia, if the Saudis are trying to put back the monarchy and, at the same time, undercut the Houthis, whose own strength is based off of a combination of tribal power, not being part of the republican ruling elites, and wanting to fight for the rights of Zaidis.

Or, if the royal family returned because they believe in the Houthis and are about to lend them their own credibility and, hopefully keep Riyadh in check since they'd be more acceptable than the Houthis directly (who, in this situation, would be the powers behind the throne).

It may be a carrot and stick tactic, conduct bombing to make things painful while offering a "out" of putting the royals back in power. the royals are sure going to look more attractive as rulers if they can guarantee an end to Saudi air strikes.

Quite possibly.

Of course, regardless of what the strategy is involving them, this almost certainly means Yemen will be partitioned and, more importantly, the Gulf states know it.

edited 27th Mar '15 11:20:44 AM by FFShinra

With the exile of Hadi the Houthi's are now in need for a new throne to be the power behind. I doubt even they think they can hold and govern all of Yemen on their own, but they can control who does.

The confused person's guid to the Middle East

edited 27th Mar '15 11:36:38 AM by JackOLantern1337