The Arab Spring

It'll get ugly as hell if not properly handled, though. The difference between "peacekeeping" and "screw the Shiites" could become academic...

Given the Bahraini intervention, I think we're already there.

Saudia should be careful not to paint itself into a corner. The Houthis have fought them down before after all and it'd be embarrassing to let it happen again now that they've played up the Iran connection waaay the hell up.

My guess is the GCC won't touch the north and will instead try to keep Hadi stable in the South. If the Houthis don't try to advance beyond Taiz southward, the GCC and the UN might settle for a soft partition.

EDIT- Of course, if the Houthis advance into the former South, that will give everyone the green light to trample them because so far, all the rhetoric about the Houthis wanting to take over all Yemen still remains just that: rhetoric. And as long as it does, there will be a faction that believes the Houthis will want to do business vis a vis southern autonomy or even seperation. If the Houthis cross that line though, it'll be a bridge too far moment for them.

edited 23rd Mar '15 12:13:38 PM by FFShinra

Was Taiz in or out of old North Yemen?

In. It was the only province of the former North that the Houthis had zero presence in til now. The Houthis were always, therefore, going to make a play for it, even if it wasn't the main source of Hadi's strength, which it was.

And as for Aden, it was the location of the Aden Emergency, one of Britain's "small wars".

And control of which is currently split between the Hirak and Hadi forces.

Losing Taiz is very likely going to be fatal for Hadi going forward. Even if he takes it back, it'll sap his strength elsewhere.

edited 23rd Mar '15 2:40:21 PM by FFShinra

Houthis are pushing into ad-Dali (also formerly North, and a place where they already had some presence) and, far more worryingly, Lahij.

EDIT- The Houthis also now control the town of Mocha (from which the coffee gets its name), giving them control of the strategic straits entering the Red Sea.

edited 24th Mar '15 12:46:00 PM by FFShinra

Has there been any progress in Aden?

I wonder if the Houthis will either limit or expand their trade with the nations nearby...

Aden is in slight chaos. A special forces commander loyal to Saleh tried to seize the airport a week ago before Hadi and Hirak forces besieged him and forced his surrender.

Gotta know Hadi's screwed over when he's relying on the Hirak for cover.

Though arguably the same is true (and moreso) for Saleh. Hadi is at least a southerner, Saleh went after the Houthis hard in the past.

Yeah, the president and the ex-president will not come out on top from this. Speaking of, here is some detail on Hadi's militia friend in Abyan.

Some news from Taiz, it seems the governor there, who I've noted before is the richest man in Yemen and an ardent Hadi loyalist, has threatened to resign after some of the military commanders there acted of their own accord and broke up a protest in Taiz.

I must say, I find this interesting, because that governor had managed to keep Taiz secure and under his control through his wealth. So either someone is paying the security forces even more (Saleh perhaps) or the governor has run out of funding and has been running things on local taxes and momentum. Either way, if Taiz remains in Houthi hands for, say, a month or two without serious threat from within the city, I'd say that governor just lost his bargaining chip...and that means it doesn't matter if Hadi retakes the city because his own man won't be able to hold it any further.

Hadi has fled the country. The Houthi have also taken the al-Anad base that just recently had US special forces stationed there. Reports all indicate that they're advancing on Aden. The Houthi spokesman has reiterated that they will not take over and only be there "a few hours".

edited 25th Mar '15 10:43:32 AM by FFShinra

Finally!...

More seriously, this is gonna become a showdown between the Houthis and al-Hirak, right? I can't see the government troops gaining any sort of morale now.

Yeah, the government troops are open to the highest bidder/local interests at this point. What comes next won't necessarily be a Hirak-Houthi conflict (if either side is smart). More likely, there will be a short period where everyone is trying to take the spoils from Hadi's faction. After that depends on what AQAP tries and/or whether the Houthi-Saleh alliance continues to hold now that Hadi is out of the picture.

Holy fuck that happened suddenly.

Just this morning i was talking to one of my professors about a mock-intelligence report on Al-Qaeda's capacity to cause disruption in Yemen, and he commented that it was a good report, but good only for today (which is true of most intel reports). Little did we know how right he was.

The Saudis have begun air strikes on the Houthis.

The US and Saudia are making a big mistake doing this....

US doesn't look like it has any chestnuts in the fire—just dragged along behind Saudia. All indications seem to be that this is a unilateral Saudi action; I suppose instability or possible Iranian influence on the border that's not backstopped by the Rub al-Khali roused Riyadh into action—especially since Egypt's proclivity for stepping unannounced on its neighbors toes may have set a precedent.

I just fear Saudia is getting caught up with a glorified red herring compared to, say, Da'esh. And the US doesn't need to make more enemies.

Anyone have any idea where Hadi ended up?

Saudi Arabia's sending in 150,000 troops, three quarters of the US contribution to Iraq War II. One of the worst-trained, least disciplined armies in the world is going up against experienced, capable Iran-backed guerilla fighters in a mountainous country.

This is going to be a fucking bloodbath.

Game-changer. The GCC is going all-in on this, which is frankly moronic when the much more ambitious ISIS isn't getting as much attention. It's going to be their Afghanistan/Vietnam, especially since they're going up against an army that's been fighting a guerilla war in this region for a decade.

<portentous voice>When a man rolls the iron dice, he never considers that they might come up snake eyes</portentous voice>

edited 26th Mar '15 7:04:17 AM by Achaemenid

I thought the Saudi's had a very well trained army,or at least well equipped. Mind you my country has/had quite a good army and continually looses these kinds of wars.

Edit: I love how they keep bragging about taking over Yemen's airspace, seriously who did they think would oppose them.

Edit 2: So apparently they got Jordan Pakistan and Sudan are participating,in addition to the Saudi's usual lackeys, Oman is the one Gulf State not participating. It sounds to me like the Sunni states feel like they need a victory over Iranian influence, and so are going all out over this.

edited 26th Mar '15 8:17:52 AM by JackOLantern1337

Well-equipped is absolutely not the same thing as well-trained. Saudispecialforces.jpg◊

His sight's on backwards.

I think there was a post in the military thread a while back that essentially stated that the Saudi army was effectively a gun club for the elite. Plus, Arab armies have tremendous difficulty trusting their own men.