The Arab Spring

No Easter bloodbaths, I hope?

Princess Basma Bint Saud Bin Abdulaziz tells the BBC there are many changes she would like to see in Saudi Arabia - but that now is not the time for women to be allowed to drive.

This interview is very interesting because Princess Basma Bint Saud Bin Abdulaziz is the niece of the current ruler. The changes are stuff like the constitution, divorce laws, changing education and social services and the role of the Mahram (chaperone)

Btw, this is why she thinks women shouldn't drive:

But the only way that KSA is going to change is if people change it from within

Dammit, there's the perfect reaction image for that on this very wiki, the one with Mal Reynolds trying to say something and failing, and I can't find it!

Even if I don't necessarily agree with it, I do admit it makes a certain amount of sense. The closest analogy I can think of is the American Civil Rights movement sputtering out in late Reconstruction due to lack of support among lawmakers and among the public, and making it through in the 1960s because that support was there.

No sign of Syria truce, according to the BBC.

I wonder if somewhere out there there is someone who is surprised.

Also, Syrian troops have apparently fired across the Turkish border on refugees. Now that's just a suicidal strategy.

They already did something similar on the Lebanese border last week.

Marq, while true, it's also not terribly relevant. Unlike Lebanon, Turkey is a Big Dog(tm), militarily speaking, and Turkey doesn't have a tendency to mind their own business as much as possible (a significant part of why the Lebanese military is the smallest in the region).

And, really, when was the last time you heard of a great Lebanese military victory?

Counting or discounting the Hizbollah? ;)

Anyway, Lebanon is Syria's lapdog anyway, whereas rleationships between Turkey and Assad are strained anyway. There's a nice comment by the deputy foreign minister of Turkey: "Starting tomorrow a new chapter will begin. Syrians fleeing the violence of the Syrian regime are under the full protection of Turkey.". He also heftily warned the Syrian regime against further attacks and said Turkey would react with 'appropriate means' in case of such attacks.

This is, frankly, the kind of talk that Assad's regime needs to hear from all around.

Does this mean that Istanbul is finally accepting the possibility of inevitable military conflict with Assad's regime?

Ankara

And no. That was not a threat of intervention, just of military defence of their border. At most I can see that escalating to the establishment of a "security/buffer zone", but even that seems unlikely to me.

If Syrian grenades, bullets or missiles were to fly over Turkey's border again, I would expect, having read those words by that Turkish diplomat, that an equal quantity of Turkish projectiles would in response be launched at the offending party to deter further border violations.

How likely is it for Ankara to use the Assad regime's transgressions on the Turkish side of the border as justification for calling upon NATO's "mutual defense" obligation?

I can't imagine that being very likely. Unless the shit really hits the fan, in which case NATO would've gotten involved anyway.

Yeah, definitely unlikely.

Given the recent Friends of Syria meeting, it looks like the general strategy is to accept that the rebellion will be a long, protracted affair, and that destabilizing the Assad regime without much care for who gets what aid is the agreed-upon course of action by the Gulf Council. Calling it in advance: this is not going to turn out well.

I don't think the rebels have the ability to defeat Assad, even if they're armed and I question whether the rebels would be particularly wonderful people even if they did get into power. The only thing arming them will do is draw out the war and make life worse for Syrian civilians. Sometime's it's hard to accept that we can't do anything much to help, but I think the least bad option at the moment is to sit this one out. There have been plenty of worse conflicts that we've never even heard of, much less considered intervening in.

edited 10th Apr '12 7:38:46 AM by WarriorEowyn

^ I'm a little skeptical they can win against Assad, myself, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely, either. I didn't think the Libyans would get their shit together, either.

edited 10th Apr '12 9:20:53 AM by Nohbody

Looks like Russia may be starting to soften their support for the Assad regime.

Well didn't they already say, when Annan was in Syria, that Annan's plan would be the test of Assad's character? Following a statement like that they have to criticise Assad if he fails that test.

Well it seems Erdogan, while on state visit to China (oh, irony...) made some pretty harsh but unspecified threats. Experts speculate that Turkey could start to establish a security zone in North Syria. At least, it seems Turkey is drawing together troops at the border for some time, but then again that could as well be for basic border defence against a troubled region and besides, it's unlikely that Turkey will act without international support. Which is kinda understandable.

This is the same Turkey that invaded Iraq because the PKK were attacking Turkish positions so yeah, I think they will act without international support

That was with Iraq's tacit blessing back then, not actually against the Iraqi government. Don't lay all your hopes on Turkey, that's kinda irresponsible anyway. Why should they, still the NATO country with the lowest GDP per capita, intervene in Syria when nobody else has the balls to? Expecting that of them would be kinda unfair.

lawmakers voted to extend authorization for the Turkish military to carry out cross-border attacks against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq. Turkish police also arrested more than 100 people across the country suspected of links to PKK rebels.

The Turks didn't have Iraqi support or their approval

Oh, I thought you meant back in the 90s. Well, in this more recent situation the thing was that nobody would dare to piss off Turkey by resisting, as the situation in Iraq is, shall we say, pretty instable anyway. Buit the Assad regime is fighting for its survival. That's a bit a different situation. No, Turkey most likely will not fight without at least sufficient diplomatic backing. And even then probably do nothing more than establish a buffer zone - if that at all. They won't topple Assad, that much is pretty much for sure.