Clashes in Hasakah still ongoing. 100 dead thus far. Already the most significant combat in the Syrian Civil War since 2019.
EDIT-
Seems the Houthis tried attacking the UAE again
, though this time with ballistic missiles rather than drones. They were intercepted by Emirati defenses this time, however. US troops based in the UAE took shelter as a precaution.
Edited by FFShinra on Jan 24th 2022 at 4:22:11 AM
There's some reports that ISIL's taking advantage of discrimination going on there with the Arabs by the Kurds to join ISIL aside from that jailbreak.
Edited by Ominae on Jan 24th 2022 at 4:38:15 AM
Surprised Assad isn't taking advantage of the situation himself, actually...
Probably cause of the ceasefire with Damascus and the Rojava backed by Moscow. Only pro-Damascus civilian police/interior ministry forces are allowed there.
Well I guess I should have elaborated, I mean I'm surprised Assad's cops aren't going in the fray to save the day and thus look like heroes to the Arabs vs the Kurdish authorities.
That would have been a good idea.
The only elite unit that I can think of is the Special Mission Forces, though those guys are in Aleppo/Damascus.
Edited by Ominae on Jan 24th 2022 at 6:54:25 AM
Yemen's internet has been restored.
Seems like the Saudis were trying to target a member of the Houthi family when they knocked out the internet. Unknown if they succeeded.
This news piece from CBC News has new footage on the battle in Hasekah.
Cringe but free
Almost like everyone who saw the under-resourced facilities has been warning foreign countries whose ISIS member nationals are being interned there to take out their trash for years, innit.
Edited by eagleoftheninth on Jan 25th 2022 at 11:08:51 AM
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
Yeah the whole leave em' and throw away the key thing doesn't work short of a black hole.
ABC News got a recording of an Australian teenager who's stuck in the siege.
Cringe but free
Yeah, well, that's another messed-up thing about the whole situation. Some prisoners at Ghwayran have spent their whole adult lives there. There are kids at the al-Hawl camp who have lived their entire lives there. Not everyone who made the "hijrah" into ISIS territory did so of their own accord.
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-backed-sdf-retakes-key-prison-in-battle-with-islamic-state/6413538.html
SDF managed to get control of the prison back and forced ISIL fighters attacking it to retreat.
Thousands recaptured...but I'm more curious at how many are left at large...
More news on the SDF's success in stopping the prison siege.
It should be noted here, for posterity, that the Houthis have taken Russia's side in the dispute. I only bring it up here because they may be expecting a quid pro quo, which if they were ever granted, would almost certainly change the tide of this conflict in a big (and terrible) way.
I am guessing that my characters did the right thing when they sent out their hackers to shut the Russian government down...
Back in Real Life: What is that quid-pro-quo?
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
"We're giving diplomatic coverage, please give us military/financial support in our fight."
Is what I'm guessing.
Basically.
Even just diplomatic support would undercut Hadi, but material support would end the war.
Cringe but free
New York Times: Yemen’s Warring Parties Begin First Cease-Fire in 6 Years.
The truce, the first coordinated cease-fire in years, which was brokered by the United Nations, includes a stop to all attacks inside Yemen and outside its borders; the entry of fuel ships to a rebel-controlled port; and the resumption of some commercial flights at the international airport in Yemen’s capital, Sana.
“The aim of this truce is to give Yemenis a necessary break from violence, relief from the humanitarian suffering and, most importantly, hope that an end to this conflict is possible,” Hans Grundberg, the United Nations special envoy for Yemen, said in a statement announcing the agreement on Friday.
President Biden welcomed the truce.
“The cease-fire must be adhered to, and as I have said before, it is imperative that we end this war,” he said in a statement. “After seven years of conflict, negotiators must undertake the hard and necessary work to reach political compromises that can bring about an enduring future of peace for all the people of Yemen.”
The truce, which began at 7 p.m. Saturday in Yemen, is the first cease-fire agreed to by all sides since 2016. It coincides with the first day of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month of fasting.
Officials and analysts welcomed the move but cautioned that it was at best a first step in a long, complicated process of working through the many issues that have shattered Yemen, ravaged its economy and undermined the security of its wealthy, oil-producing neighbors.
The conflict began in 2014 when Houthi rebels seized Sana and much of the country’s northwest, sending the government into exile. A few months later, a military coalition led by Saudi Arabia intervened with a vast air campaign, hoping to drive back the Houthis, who are supported by Iran, and restore the government.
But the war settled into a grinding stalemate. Coalition jets destroyed infrastructure and bombed weddings and funerals, killing civilians. The Houthis deployed child soldiers, laid land mines and launched increasingly sophisticated drone and missile attacks at Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, another coalition member. The Yemeni government remained mired in infighting with other factions supposedly on its side.
The United States has not been directly involved in the war but is a major supplier of bombs and jets to members of the coalition and has provided Saudi Arabia with technology and intelligence to help defend its southern border with Yemen.
As the war progressed, the Houthis received military equipment and training from Iran, the Saudis’ regional nemesis, and launched increasingly sophisticated attacks on Saudi Arabia and, more recently, the United Arab Emirates. One attack last month set ablaze two large storage tanks at an oil facility in the western Saudi city of Jeddah.
Diplomats from the United Nations, other gulf nations and the United States have been trying for years to broker peace talks, efforts that have so far produced only short-term reductions in violence.
The barriers to the reunification of the country and lasting peace are many.
The Houthis’ grip on Sana remains firm, regardless of years of coalition airstrikes and offensives by the Yemeni army and its allies. The movement has set up a de facto administration to govern its territory and is not likely to give up control willingly without exacting concessions that the Yemeni government and the coalition may be loath to grant.
The coalition’s Yemeni allies are a fractious grouping that includes parts of the Yemeni army and armed successionists who have fought against each other. Yemen’s president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, is widely unpopular and seen as out of touch with the suffering of Yemenis, giving him little ability to unify the ranks.
And Iran has found that adding fuel to the war is an easy way to bog down Saudi Arabia, a practice it might not easily give up.
Still, the main combatants all appeared to be on board with the truce.
Yemen’s foreign minister, Ahmed bin Mubarak, welcomed the truce and said that two fuel ships would soon unload in the Houthi-controlled port of Hudaydah, easing a coalition blockade that has made fuel prices skyrocket.
He also said that limited international flights would soon resume at Sana’s airport, which the coalition bombed early in the war and has kept closed to all but limited humanitarian flights. That has made it much harder for Yemenis from northern Yemen to travel, including those wounded in coalition strikes who need treatment abroad.
Muhammad Abdel-Salam, a Houthi spokesman, expressed support for the truce on Twitter. Mohammed al-Houthi, a senior Houthi official, wrote that “its credibility will be achieved by its implementation.”
Mr. Grundberg, the United Nations envoy, said he would use the truce for further discussions with the parties “with the aim to reach a permanent cease-fire, address urgent economic and humanitarian measures and resume the political process.”
Big news out of Yemen.
In light of the ceasefire, which is holding thus far, it looks like there have been massive changes on the side of the Internationally Recognized Government of Yemen, or what I used to call the "Hadi Government" on this thread. I say used to because it seems Hadi is no longer the president.
To be specific, the following happened in order:
- With the ceasefire holding, the president and his cabinet and several major factions nominally aligned with the government all flew out to (or were already in) Riyadh.
- A few hours later, it was announced that Vice President (and General) Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar, once the most powerful man in Yemen second only to Saleh prior to the civil war, and more relevantly, the main supporter of Islah's interests within the Hadi government...has been sacked.
- A bit after that, it was announced Hadi was forming a presidential council (a suggestion experts had been begging him to do for at least the last year or so) and transferred power to them.
- The council, as follows:
- General Tariq Saleh, nephew to the late dictator, leader of what remains of Yemen's Republican Guard, and more broadly of the Joint Forces, a UAE-backed collection of militias and formal military units (including the Giants Brigade, the stars of the counteroffensive against the Houthis in Shabwa that also halted their momentum against Marib) based out of Mocha on the Red Sea coast.
- Major General Aidirous Al Zubaidi, the president of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council separatist group, former governor of Aden, who has made clear his intent on secession as soon as the war with the Houthis concludes, however it may.
- Governor (and General) Sultan Al-Arada, the Governor of Marib, the most strategically and economically most important province still under government control (or at least the parts of the province that make that statement true). Member of Islah.
- Rashad al-Alimi, the Chairman of this new Presidential Council (the others are all "Deputy Chairman" instead of just member). Formerly the Interior Minister of Yemen under Saleh from 2001-2008. Very little on him other than that, so likely the representative of what remains of Yemen's bureaucracy. Still a member of the GPC Saleh-era party, and hails from Taiz.
- Sheikh Othman Mujali, an MP, cabinet member (Agriculture minister) and, most interestingly, a member of a large tribe from Saada, where the Houthis are also based.
- Brigadier General Abed al-Rahman Abu Zara’a, the head of the Giants Brigade, part of the UAE-backed Joint Forces and hero to the anti-Houthi factions of Yemen.
- General (and Governor of Hadhramaut) Faraj Salmin al-Bahsani, who also commands his own military units based in Mukalla and backed by the UAE and friendly to (but not part of) the STC.
- Abdullah al-Alimi, (now-former) director of Hadi's Presidential office. With Islah. I know very little about this guy, but given that earlier reporting was about Islahi representation, this guy seems like a chair warmer.
It should be noted that there have been presidential councils throughout the history of both North and South Yemen in the republican era...but not in the unified state. It should also be noted that that history that did exist....is very poor. And based off the current makeup, I don't expect much better.
Other thing to consider: Hadi's legitimacy was barely extant from a legal perspective (and not at all defacto). These guys have the opposite problem, they all control forces and territory, but they have no legal standing except as an order from the previous leader. This isn't the only major change either, because it looks like the parliament (last elected in 2003, so many people have since died, left, changed sides...) has also been replaced by a 50 man "consultative council". Also rumors (probably because of the parliament replacement but not yet confirmed) that the constitution itself was repealed.
Given that after the announcement, they all met with MBS and Saudi Arabia completely coincidentally announced an injection of 3 billion dollars into the Yemeni economy, its very clear who pressed for this.
However, this may also be a good thing. Hadi, corrupt, power hungry, and incompetent, had not only been a thorn in Saudia' side for doing things like making the Houthis look good by comparison and firing more popular vice presidents/prime ministers out of pettiness, but had generally been come to seen as the main impediment on the anti-Houthi side to creating and maintaining a unified front. Not sure if this solution will be much better, but just about anything new is worth a try at this point.
A good collective leadership is usually (much) worse then a bad individual one in times of war. But maybe Hadi is so bad... Or the Saudis are giving up on this.
A lot of people are saying Saudia and MBS are doing this exactly because they're desperate to get out of this war, to your point.
Four of the members are UAE backed, four of them are Saudi backed, with two of them Islahi, one STC, and the rest nominally GPC (though of different factions, some being part of the Saleh loyalist faction and others being part of the faction formerly aligned with Hadi).
The UAE seems to have the upper hand in the make up. All four of their picks command substantial forces and hold substantial territory. Of Riyadh's picks, only Arada is comparable, though the chairman is also one of the Saudi picks.
It also, it should be noted, invalidates the UNSC resolution that authorized Riyadh's war, since Hadi is gone and the presidency itself fundamentally transformed.
EDIT-
It seems that ending the war really is the goal. As I was typing my above response, the final statement from the Riyadh Consultations (as these meetings are being called) was released, stating that the military option has failed and calling both for a peaceful resolution to the war and an answer to the question of southern seperation.
Edited by FFShinra on Apr 7th 2022 at 8:19:48 AM
https://twitter.com/zalali/status/1512080689323122690
So some things with the recent council establishment to consider:
For one, it is unclear what has happened to Hadi; he has not actually resigned after transferring his presidential powers.
For another, it is unclear what legal authority the president has to do this. To make matters more complex, part of the presidential order has outright stated wherever in the constitution the order is in contravention, that part of the constitution is "deleted".
Granted, this isn't the first time presidential diktat has occured, given who the previous president was and how he eventually delegated his authority.
Also, the new paradigm seems to be if the presidential council deadlocks, they have to consult with the consultative council. If they deadlock, the chairman of the presidential council just decides by himself. He also has a lot more sweeping powers compared to the other council members.
Finally, a lot of people they named to be on committees and such are spread out amongst the diaspora and were not consulted.
Does not bode well for this council.
You're probably right, but that comes with consequences. The US under Biden will not abide by such blatant disregard for civilian casualties. And given that 70% of the Yemeni population is under Houthi control (even if the physical territory they control is only 25% or so), Yemenis probably won't abide by that either. Especially since foreign disregard for Yemeni lives is how the Houthis have justified their police state.
The internet in Yemen is still down, by the way. I wonder how long it would take for restoration, assuming they even have the capability to do so...