The Arab Spring

Putin has rejected Turkish calls for a ceasefire, so it looks like a northern offensive is imminent.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45444276

Normally I'd figure Erdogan would just keep quiet now. But millions more refugees with a faltering economy would not be acceptable. I have to wonder if he would invade Idlib from the back to keep people from running away into Turkey because I do not think he can seal this border. The geography and the sheer magnitude of people that would rush it is impossible to deal with.

Besides, he could then justify it later under Neo-Ottomanism....

Well, it seems all the Turkish movement toward the border has given Assad pause. His army is still poised to strike, but it's not moving any further in.

While it does look like most of those who comitted horrible crimes in Syria will never be brought to justice, there is still hope that not all of them will escape justice:

German court sentences Syrian national to life in prison for war crimes

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/german-court-sentences-syrian-national-to-life-in-prison-for-war-crimes/

Most excellent. Assad might eventually "win", but he effectively earns an open air prison. Neither he nor his followers can hope to ever set foot in most of Europe at this rate.

This will also hopefully mean no more shopping tours for Mrs. Assad in Lonson.

Open air prison? It is their country.

And your point is what? My comment was that he can't leave because European courts in particular would arrest and prosecute him. Further, given the state of the country in question, it's not exactly paradise. Thus open air prison.

Plus even with a win it’s not Assad’s country, not really, half of it belongs to the Kurds, small bits of the south still belong to rebels he’s had to make peace with and other chunks belong to the Russians and Iranians.

https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-adel-al-jubeir

CFR has a talk with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeir.

Trivia: He studied in America for university, so his English is good.

My point, it is a bit strange to call someone who can not leave their country living in open-air prison. Most people never do it, in fact. Not that they can't - Europe and USA are not the only places in the world.

Edited by Smeagol17 on Sep 28th 2018 at 12:52:24 PM

It's an open air prison because it's a crater and also, despite the general defeat of the rebellion, not entirely under his control. Nor will it ever be, since whatever he controls now is only because of foreign forces.

Making this be about some sort of supposed regional myopia on my part is, to put it bluntly, idiotic.

EDIT-

Further, Assad in particular spent a good chunk of his life in London (where he trained as a doctor and met his wife). Therefore, your comment about how plenty of people never leave doesn't really apply to the chinless wonder. Indeed, the entire point of my initial comment is that despite the supposed fait accompli his regime may have achieved in the conflict, he can never enjoy the life he had before the war, where he was feted in every capital in Europe, where his wife enjoyed attention usually not put on middle eastern first ladies.

Edited by FFShinra on Sep 28th 2018 at 9:19:19 AM

It's pretty clear that Assad and his wife don't actually like living in Syria.

Plus he's going to have to spend the rest of his days unable to eat a meal or sip a beverage without pondering the possibility that they've been laced with polonium so that Putin can "hire" some new staff for the country.

Edited by FluffyMcChicken on Sep 29th 2018 at 1:15:46 AM

If we are talking about Assad specifically, than as a head of state he mostly travels where he is invited, I would think. The war did not change that. And I dont think the places he spends most of his day changed, too. His residence or most of Damascus are not a crater. If he spent most of this time in Europe before the war, it would be different. But I doubt it. And the west reconciled even with Gaddafi, for a time. Who knows what the future will bring.

Edited by Smeagol17 on Sep 29th 2018 at 1:01:15 PM

Except he used to travel to places to holiday and shop, even after becoming head of state. He is persona non grata in those places now. And if he was to go those places anyway, despite all that, he would be in danger of arrest. The war changed that for him, since this is about his reputation and how it affects lifestyle.

Further, with the exception of the presidential palace and downtown, Damascus is no different from Aleppo or Homs in terms of destruction. It is a crater. All of Syria is at this point, but the highest levels of it are in Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. Thats why the Russians are trying to get Europe and the US to help rebuild it.

Gaddafi is a bad example to bring up, since it took just one melodramatic threat to get Europe to oust him, reconciliation be damned.

Y'know, I used to think the same a year or so ago, but now I think Putin can't get rid of him even if he wanted to, simply because that would lead to a succession crisis with Russia backing one dude and Iran the other. More headache than it's worth at the moment.

Of course, but that they reconciled with him at all is remarkable, taking in account his past. And no one has accused Assad of being melodramatic.

Um, the Russians are asking for Western assistance to rebuild Syria? Why?

Russia's foreign minister recently visited Germany and openly asked for financial assistance.

As to why, Russia has nowhere near the financial assets necessary to rebuild Syria. And considering how unpopular his recent pension reform was, Putin is no doubt smart enough that pumping billions into Syria might cause an eaven larger public backlash.

This.

Except you aren't getting my point: it wasn't an actual reconciliation. And in Assad's case, he wouldn't have to threaten, he already has a record to act upon.

Not an actual reconcilation? When the spring came, they did to him the same they tried to do to Assad, with whom they were on normal terms, as you yourself noted. They reconcilled, all right, they just didn't care when an opportunity presented itself.

Edited by Smeagol17 on Oct 6th 2018 at 12:24:42 PM

It wasn't an actual reconciliation because Gaddafi only "reconciled" when the US-led coalition overthrew Saddam Hussein. He didn't want to be next, and probably would have been allowed to die of natural causes if not for him threatening Benghazi with annihilation.

And bear in mind Obama waited months after the protests started in Syria before he said the (in)famous "Assad must go". This after Assad had long ago started doing exactly what Gaddafi did, precisely because he used to have a lot more political capital with the West than the G-man did.

Should probably post here that either Oman or Yemen (in unlikely case, Somalia/Eritrea/Dijbouti) will be threatened by a tropical cyclone this week.

He began reconciling long before the second Iraq War. And yes, they disliked Gadaffi more, he was an eccentric (and also attacked them in the past). But this only shows that for Assad it woud be easier to reconcile, if he would desire it (and make some gestures).

Gadaffi's personal behaviour probably did not help matters. I have read somewhere that Sarkozy hosted him for a few days in Paris, and Gadaffi behaved so repulsively that Sarkozy said afterwards that he never wanted to meet him again.

Fub fact, the German pendant to the SUN apparantly speculated about Gadaffi's health problems, because he was suposedly farting all the times.