The Arab Spring

A question: how many militia groups were organized across Libya during and after the civil war that ended Gaddafi?

All of them. This is only a short google a way.

@Shinra: I wonder if there is some kind of psychological bias at play that prevents the USA from realizing that their assistance to Saudi Arabia is increasingly unworthwhile. I mean, there is no indication at all that the Yemen conflict is advancing the interests of the US in any way and I am not sure about Saudia either.

IINM American's continued military assistance to Saudi Arabia is mainly to ensure Iran doesn't get into cross-Gulf shenanigans. It's already bold enough to stoke the embers of Shiite rebellion in Bahrain and the KSA's Eastern Province (lots of police officers working in the latter got shot over the past few years). Before the Second Iraq War, it was also part of a concerted effort to contain Saddam Hussein by making sure his southern neighbours aren't easy pickings.

Edited by MarqFJA on Aug 17th 2018 at 1:23:21 PM

&Yeah. Problem is, now they are bombing schoolchildren for no real reason (not that killing children is ever justified in war but...). And the Houthis have still not surrendered for all the force the Crown Prince is throwing at them.

I just kind of wished Riyadh and Abu Dhabi would be honest with everyone and just say what the war really is: old school conquest. The bombings, starvation, cholera...all of it leads to one very specific thing: the annihilation of the populace. All that is needed is time.

EDIT-

More news: The US is redirecting several hundred million in Syria stabilization aid toward "other priorities". A career ambassador in the State Department is being assigned to act as a "special representative to the Syrian government". AKA, an ambassador in all but name.

Edited by FFShinra on Aug 17th 2018 at 4:10:19 AM

There are also rumours that Syria is high on the agenda of Merkel's meeting with Putin tomorrow. Supposedly Putin is looking for Western money to rebuild Syria. And it looks like some Western government are considering to offer aid under certain conditions.

Not exactly the kind of outcome anyone wanted for Syria, but arguably inevitable given the political realities. And as long as the money is really used for reconstruction, there is no point in punishing the Syrian people for the outcome of the war. It is not their fault that Assad prevailed, yet they will have to endure under him.

http://m.spiegel.de/international/world/the-future-of-syria-under-bashar-assad-a-1223178.html

Edited by Zarastro on Aug 17th 2018 at 2:42:16 PM

News out of Syria mentions that the First Lady is undergoing treatment from cancer.

Indeed. Of course, that's the big question when it comes to the eventual use of the aid. I also have questions on the status of the ethnic cleansing program that has been in effect since 2013 or so (where property records are deliberately destroyed with parcels of land being offered to Shia foreign fighters in an effort to stack the demographic deck). Nevermind all the issues that will entail in the long term but....

Got a link?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-45117993

TBF, it’s been a few days now.

I can only imagine how many Syrians are wishing her ill when it comes to her treatment...

And Russia Today just plays up the False Flag Operation card to justify any action taken on the Chinless Wonder using Chemical Weapons again, over US threats of strikes against Assad forces if he used more Chemical Weapons.

Edited by AngelusNox on Aug 25th 2018 at 1:48:41 PM

At this rate, given how piddly Trump's retaliatory strikes have been, I don't even know why they bother lying about it anymore....

The first was pretty much worthless as retaliation strikes go. But the second one, which was planned by the Pentagon, did harm Assad's government and military a bit.

So it is going to be anyone's guess how this will work out.

Meanwhile, in Yemen...

It seems the Yemeni rial is in free fall, even with Saudi injections of cash into the (Hadi-controlled portion of the) central bank, due to said bank taking a decision to allow the currency to float earlier in August. Earlier, the pegged rate was 250 rials to the US dollar (the value of the rial was about 210 to the dollar before the war began) but this was unsustainable in the imploding economy. The value is now in excess of 600 rials to the dollar. Basics are unaffordable.

As a result, Aden is now seeing heavy protests, led by local unions who have called for a general strike throughout the city.

The Russians are bombing rebel held targets in Idlib province, as Assad's troops appear to be massing for another offensive.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45407401

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Sep 4th 2018 at 10:59:39 AM

This is gonna be a massacre.

Anyone know what Erdogan is doing....

Here's hoping that Turkey's economy going to into a tailspin prevents Ankara from doing anything...rash.

The US position over the past few days seems to be that they’ll take military action again if chemical weapons are used again. Given how Russia has been hyping up a false-flag chemical attack over the past few weeks it seems likely chemical weapons will be used. Not a good situation overall.

I've seen OSINT stuff on how the Russian/Syrian MO Ds are calling out the White Helmets and anyone supporting them.

State media has been going after them for years now. Not exactly OSINT any more.

Cheeto will hit some stuff, but he doesn't care enough to stop the inevitable. Assuming it happens at all, anyway.

@archon

- I saw some interesting OSINT images of the Russia MOD bashing the W Hs.

I doubt anyone could stop it at this point, the question is what Syria is going to look like when it’s all said and done. The potential for continued instability is high.

Yeah, they’re a favorite target of the Russian government. They’ve been going after them pretty much since their inception. It helps that they’ve done some stuff that’s actually questionable. It’s easy for the Russians to hit us on our support of rebel groups because there’s really no such thing as a “good rebel”.

OSINT is usually for grey lit or rivet counting, not so much reading the paper.

True that. At least a couple of recorded incidents involving some W Hs going against their orders do paint it that way sadly.

OSINT nowadays is one of the ways I go and look at the civil war in Syria.

Aside from that, I'm hitting news that an ISIL cache was taken by HTS.

Russia warns US of pending attack in Syrian area with US troops