The Arab Spring

Trump has cancelled a trip to South America to oversee the situation in Syria. No way some kind of response isn't coming.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/10/politics/donald-trump-south-america-trip/index.html?adkey=bn

Well, at least I still remain as far from him as possible.

Anyway, Russia is also joining up with Syria in calling out Israel too.

The US, France and the UK are striking Syrian chemical weapon sites.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/13/politics/trump-us-syria/index.html

http://defence-blog.com/army/russia-threatening-supply-long-range-air-defence-systems-syria.html

The Russians are now threatening to arm the Syrian military with a long range air defence system.

Sooooo, it seems that their claim about 71 missiles being intercepted is complete bullshit as usual.

Yazidis who suffered under Isis face forced conversion to Islam amid fresh persecution in Afrin

Israel Will 'Eliminate' Assad if He Continues to Let Iran Operate From Syria, Minister Warns

Dear lord....

As much as the death of the chinless wonder would make so many happy, having a sovereign nation assassinate the leader of a neighbor is a can of worms....

How do y'all think Northern Syria will pan out? Do you believe it will last? Expand? Be reabsorbed into Syria? How many Waleses is it in size?

Depends on Turkey, frankly. Russia has no beef with the Kurds and Assad is too weak to take it back himself, even with Iranian ground support. Too much ground to cover. But even in the scenario of Turkey taking it, I don't see Erdogan handing it over to Assad. Not without something hefty in return.

Old news, but Princess Latifa is not seen since this month.

Alright sports fans, its been awhile, but we have some news from Yemen.

The port of Hodeida, which the Houthis use to get food and fuel to the territories they control, is on the verge of a massive attack from a UAE-backed force consisting of Hadi supporters, Southern resistance, and most notably, the Republican Guard of one Tareq al Saleh, nephew to the late president. His unit is considered the best trained and equiped on the Hadi side.

Most analysts seem to have concluded that such a battle, if it were to actually commence (currently its just a slow advance up the coast, as they deal with landmines laid by the Houthis), it would be the most brutal this particular conflict has seen yet. Some even say it might begin a new, more brutal, phase of a war that has largely been in stalemate since the GCC stepped in.

And lo, the battle has begun. 4 Emiratis already reported dead.

Attackers have taken the airport.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/yemen-airport-saturday-1.4709492

Well, the airfield anyway. There are reports today that there is heavy fighting over the terminal, according to Peter J Salisbury of Chatham House. (great to follow on Twitter, if anyone is interested in Yemen).

Meanwhile, in Syria, it looks like Assad's forces are going to push on Daraa, which is problematic given the countries that province borders...

It seems a far right Norwegian group is fighting in Syria under Russian command: Link is to a blog covering the conflict and is in Russian, so careful of bias.

Normally wouldn't post something from them, but they had a picture...

Hope those boys enjoy being on a watchlists until their grandkids die once they get home...

The BBC is reporting that 250k Syrians are fleeing the governorate of Daraa due to the new offensive Assad is launching. Both Israel and Jordan have sealed their borders and aren't letting anyone in (though they are allowing limited aid through to them).

Lot of speculation that Putin and Trump will make a "deal" over this situation when the meet in the next few weeks.

Make that 750k, again, according to the BBC.

I'm starting to wonder, with all the borders closed, if they will all just die in the deserts trying to reach Iraq or if they'll breach into one of the closed off countries...

The Norwegian group fighting in Syria's known as the Scandinavian League.

Syrian Army troops, backed by Russian MPs, are in control of Daraa. FSA'll be doomed.

Edited by Ominae on Jul 12th 2018 at 7:41:42 AM

The FSA has been doomed since the fall of Aleppo. This is simply the final nail in the independent opposition's coffin. The only players left are the Turkish backed factions of the FSA (I think they are called the SNA, but I have to double check) and the US backed Kurds of the SDF. Granted, thats still about a third of the country, but neither patron is interested in letting them push out for more territory, at least for the foreseeable future.

What happens next depends on so many factors, one can't really predict which course will be taken:

1. Things go as they have for the last year or so and Assad simply absorbs all of Syria again.

- Even if the media coverage currently makes it seem like this will be the case, it relies on too many things not changing in the always-tumultuous middle east, nevermind among the great powers. There is a high possibility other complications toward this narrative will come about in the next few months or so. There is a small possibility it becomes more easy than it currently is for Assad and company, mostly through actions that would have to directly empower both Iran and Russia, which the US and Europe do not care for respectively. Still, it is possible for this to be the end game, moreso as each day passes by...

2. The independent rebellion regains steam and sends Assad back to mid-2015 levels of desperation.

- This could only happen if Russia gets distracted by something (Ukraine ramps up, or they get a deal that involves abandoning Syria or some such) and/or Iranian manpower has been somehow nullified (either through another conflict or trouble back home or some combination thereof). And even then, they would require Jordanian/Lebanese/Iraqi/Turkish help in some form or fashion, none of whom are interested at the moment. This is the least likely scenario.

3. Turkey uses its proxies in Idlib to take more land to keep Assad and the Kurds off balance.

- This is not as impossible as it sounds, but it depends entirely on what Erdogan's end game is, and whether he can convince the Russians that it works for their interests too. Iran will not want to start shit with the Turks as long as Turkey doesn't outright decapitate the Assad government or take the lands closest to Lebanon and Israel. In short, if Erdogan kept his attacks only against the Kurds, or if they must lose land, it's not the coast or Damascus or Daraa/Quinetra governorates, then they won't care. But thats a tough sell, and Erdogan may not yet have the relationship with his recently-purged military to make good on that. Would also depend on the US agreeing to abandon the Kurds, but there are already reports about turning Manbij over, so its not entirely impossible that the US uses this as the excuse they need to wash their hands of this, provided the Turks give them full license to drone any terrorists they find in the area.

4. The Kurds push beyond the Euphrates and take over Syria.

- Turkey would never allow it, the Russians might be okay provided the Kurds agree to the same things Assad did for his support, the Iranians would be displeased but it would depend on the great power situation regarding this whether they risk fighting them. The US would probably like the end game, but wouldn't dare invest the money and equipment needed for them to do it. I could see Russia using them as a pawn against Iran should their interests in Syria ever diverge to the point of breaking their current codominium, but the likelihood of that is also quite low. Probably the second least likely scenario.

5. Everything collapses into Yemen-style anarchy and stalemate.

- More likely than one would think. If something happens to Iran or Russia's support, but nobody wants to invest in the rebels for a replacement, Assad does not have enough internal support to maintain inertia, even after all these victories. He would either devolve into a Damascene/coastal warlord, or he would end up eliminated in some fashion or another. The rebellion would mildly strengthen without the pressure of the government, but without support, they can't do much beyond local or provincial gains. Sadly, I see this as the most likely outcome, in the mid to long term. Iran can't maintain its presence forever, and Russia only cares about the coast and the PR of sticking with an ally. They won't allow themselves to hold the bag.

6. A grand peace deal a la Lebanon is reached.

- Both Russia and the US, in their separate processes, have been trying for this to no avail. Unless a solution is imposed upon Assad by force, he won't bite when he's winning, and there is no credible leader of the rebellion left to negotiate with anyway. That being said, if Syria does fall into anarchy and Assad himself becomes irrelevant even diplomatically speaking, the surrounding nations could decide they need to step in to prevent instability from again burdening them. Maybe this is the end scenario of the anarchy scenario, but I don't think it happens until that rock bottom event is reached.

7. Partition.

- A variation of the above, this would acknowledge the reality that "Syria" no longer exists and that some change in borders would be necessary. Arabs are loath to back this idea, because they already think, collectively, that the colonial-era border drawings are a big reason why they have problems now. Not to mention, with the exception of the coast, none of the regions are economically viable on their own. If there is partition, it would almost certainly require annexation by the surrounding nations (a scenario I'm sure Erdogan would be happy with, and maybe the Lebanese, but not sure if anyone else would be willing). An unlikely, but possible scenario if Assad can't make something work out of his gains...

I'm sure there are more possibilities that I am forgetting just now, but thats how I see things playing out.

It seems there is significant unrest in southern Iraq right now. Mass protests in Basra. The Army is being redeployed from former Daesh territory in aid of civil power.

The way its being reported, it looks like 2011 all over again...

So in Yemen, there was a massive airstrike last week that killed scores of schoolchildren. This has, naturally, created a huge backlash in the US Congress, since its US weapons that were likely used in the strikes.

In the recent defense budget that was signed into law, the Do D must now let Congress know what it is doing to limit Saudi-Emirati indulgence into warcrimes.

So far, no real results.

EDIT- Anyone still reading this thread? Plenty going on, but if there is no audience to report to...

Edited by FFShinra on Aug 16th 2018 at 5:13:17 AM