North Korea uses ‘lofting’ technique to bring it ever closer to long-range missile goal
The principle, experts say, is that the higher a rocket can travel, the further it can reach.
“To avoid firing long-range missiles into or over Japan, the North Koreans have been launching them nearly straight up instead,” said Joshua Pollack, editor of the Washington-based Nonproliferation Review.
“They fly much higher into space that way, but come back down relatively close to their launch points.”
North Korea is not unusual in sending rockets to high altitudes — or “lofting” them — to test their range, but does so more than other countries because it is surrounded by other states, he said.
Kim watched the May 14 launch of the Hwasong-12 rocket early on a Sunday morning on North Korea’s east coast. The missile splashed down just 787 km from the launch site, but reached an altitude of 2,111.5 km, according to North Korean state media.
The South Korean and Japanese governments measured similar distances at the time.
Had the Hwasong-12 been fired at a shallower angle, it would have flown more than 4,800 km, according to David Wright, co-director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, which works to reduce the risk of nuclear use.
That would fall short of the mainland United States, but Wright’s calculations put parts of Alaska within range.
North Korea has been conducting missile tests at an unprecedented pace under Kim, who has tested about 80 rockets. While his father, Kim Jong Il, was in office, the nation conducted just 16 tests, according to monitoring by the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
North Korea has test-fired missiles at lofted trajectories in the past, but none as high as the Hwasong-12. It has used larger and more powerful rockets for space launches, but the Hwasong-12 is smaller, more mobile — and harder to detect.
The rocket has a powerful engine. Photos of the launch show the missile had four additional steering engines as well as its main engine, giving slightly more power and accuracy, according to Ralph Savelsberg, writing on the 38 North website.
After the May 14 launch, North Korean state media said the missile had been launched at such a high angle “in consideration of the security of neighboring countries.”
In 1998, Kim Jong Il ordered the launch of a two-stage ballistic missile, one half of which flew over Japan, prompting strong protests from Tokyo. Japan still protests at every North Korean test.
As Jong Un has accelerated his missile program and developed more mobile rockets with longer ranges, he has launched them ever higher.
This has other benefits, according to Pollack: It puts more stress on the nose cone as it re-enters the atmosphere, providing a more rigorous test than an ordinary trajectory.
For a missile to become a threat, its nose cone has to be able to carry a nuclear warhead, and that warhead has to withstand the incredible stresses of re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere from space.
Missiles that land closer to home also make it easier for North Korea to collect and analyze data to improve the missile program, according to Pollack.
As threatening as these developments sound for the United States, it took North Korea 20 years to finish developing the rocket which eventually put a satellite in space in 2012, said German aerospace engineer Markus Schiller, who has closely followed the North’s missile development program.
“It will be even longer until they have a real weapon deployed — if ever,” he said. A “real weapon” means an intercontinental ballistic missile that can be reliably launched under any circumstances, he added.
But if North Korea were to win support from outside enabling it to buy in rocket parts, he said, “they could have an ICBM next month.”
You know, at this point, North Korea successfully developing ICBMs and stockpiling a sizable arsenal is probably the only way this is going to end without a massive war.
edited 3rd Jul '17 12:27:28 PM by CaptainCapsase
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
There is no diplomatic solution at this point; under no circumstances will North Korea give up their nukes, not after what happened with Iraq and Libya (and to a lesser extent/to bring in an example unrelated to the United States, Ukraine) when they gave up their nuclear weapons programs. That being the case, there's really only two ways this can end; in war (which would be costlier than anything the United States has been involved since Vietnam) or North Korea successfully developing a nuclear deterrent.
edited 3rd Jul '17 12:54:59 PM by CaptainCapsase
A procrastination in of itself
I submit option three, a Chinese organised palace coup that puts a new Kim in charge.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Seoul reports a new missile fired by the Korean People's Army.
Apparently it hit the Sea of Japan again.
The Eternal War between the House of Kim and Poseidon continues.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
@Silas: China likely doesn't have that sort of influence in North Korea any more; the people who had those sorts of connections to the Kim regime were more or less thrown out of the government in the purge of Jiang Zemin's appointees; they'd have to outright invade to remove Kim, and their capital is within striking distance of North Korea's current weapons, meaning that's not going to happen, or at least not at a price that the United States would be prepared to accept.*
* Total withdrawal of US forces from East Asia and at least partial acceptance of China's claims in the South China Sea being what we're talking about, and the United States won't give that up unless it ends up on the losing side of a war with China.
edited 4th Jul '17 1:23:08 PM by CaptainCapsase
I agree with your post there for the most part, but why would US be obligated to pay that price? If China does invade North Korea it will be because China wants to change the regime, not because the US wants it to in order to stop its nuclear program. The US is not going to consider China's invasion as a favor and do favors in return; it's going to look at it with mixed feelings, replacing the North Korea problem with increased Chinese encroachment. And the US will strengthen regional defenses and perhaps join the invasion from the other side, loosely compared to the invasion of Poland in World War II. It's definitely not going to withdraw from East Asia since that's the opposite of what it wants in this scenario.
Side note: I don't find the Poseidon jokes all that funny. North Korean missile development is not a joke; a breaking news today I saw stated that North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile and that the US is taking this claim seriously.
That's precisely why there's not going to be a diplomatic solution with China here; overthrowing the Kim regime simply isn't worth it for them at this point in time, and probably never will be given they'll be either untouchable due to their nuclear arsenal or destroyed in the course of a war with the United States within a matter of years.
edited 4th Jul '17 2:53:25 PM by CaptainCapsase
The law in the night
Leaving them untouched and with a fully developed nuclear program isn't a good option either. Since NK is pissing off China and the US they will be even more cut off from the support they use to keep their regime afloat. Which is a matter of time until it implodes on itself and creates all those problems regardless.
The question is, are they going to fall before they attain nuclear capability capable enough to hold the entire East Asia hostage or they are going to fall with nuclear weapons and people crazy enough to use them?
Inter arma enim silent leges
The Wanderer
Here's some shots of the missile
KCNA released a statement from Pyongyang, saying that the launch is in part a greeting to Trump and to America as part of Independence Day.
That rocket looks like a bastard love-child of 50s and 70s Russian and American tech. I'd call it a missile, but it's just... so clunky. :/
Also, they really need to think about water wings. Just a design suggestion.
edited 5th Jul '17 4:15:20 AM by Euodiachloris
Night Clerk of the Apacalypse.
Pretty much all ballistic missiles are that ugly.
Who watches the watchmen?
@Angelus: Really at this point the only question is whether they're capable of miniaturizing their warheads. If the answer to that question is "yes", they're already untouchable due to the damage they could do to major population centers of US allies. We think the answer is no at this time, but it'll be only a matter of years if not months until that changes.
edited 5th Jul '17 1:28:09 PM by CaptainCapsase
A procrastination in of itself
I doubt that miniaturisation capability is so binary, they can probably miniaturise enough to hit Soul and maybe Tokeo, but not the US East Coast.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Nikki Haley mentioned in a UNSC meeting that Pyongyang is forcing them to consider the possibility of using force as a possible measure.
Keep in mind that it's Haley who said this, and her word doesn't always mean much of anything. Still something to think about though.
It's a pretty consistent message coming from the Trump administration in contrast to most other foreign policy issues where there's absolutely no coherent message: North Korea will be prevented from completing the development of their nuclear program with force if they don't desist.
@Silas: I honestly don't know; it's not just mass but volume you have to worry about with these things, and making the warhead so that it can survive reentry. That's a tough nut to crack, but it's really only a matter of time. Reports I've seen suggest that the North probably can't use their weapons against US allies at this time, it's the conventional and chemical weapons they have that are of far more significant concern.
edited 5th Jul '17 8:00:22 PM by CaptainCapsase
The Wanderer
Spoiler alert: Probably not.
Eating a Vanilluxe will give you frostbite.
Here's an article that looks at Trump’s Korea "policy" as an outgrowth of Bush's (and a similar video that touches on some other points). What stood out to me:
"Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter. So much for China working with us - but we had to give it a try!" 4:21 AM - 5 Jul 2017
If you threaten, have a plan. Because otherwise you end up with a worse situation and you look stupid and powerless. Which is precisely where we are now.
edited 6th Jul '17 12:51:30 AM by Eschaton
Mildly disconcerting because they have come up to the steps of the Blue House in the past using infiltrators but cocked up and got caught.
Who watches the watchmen?