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The final boss was already dying throughout phase 4
Crimson 1's plane lets off a cordium explosion when you deplete his third life bar, and at this point, he starts coughing, screaming in agony, and daring you to hurry up and finish him off. We don't know if cordium explosions are radioactive like real nuclear weapons, but if they are, then Crimson might be aware at this point that he's not going home even if he wins, so he puts his all into either taking you down with him or prompting you to kill him quickly.
The Deal between Sicario and Cascadia involved stolen cordium weapons, or the plans to make them.
It would be the one thing that would get the Federation off of Sicario's backs even if Cascadia didn't shelter them, and it would explain why Prez worries that they shouldn't have that kind of power.
No, like he really is one of those Kennedys
Contrary to that infamously tragic history, the Kennedys not only lasted through the Calamity but retained a political dynasty now in a new North American country. And so that's how we get "Diplomat." Now, say it with me: "nothing bad ever happens to the Kennedys!"
"The Deal" isn't any one specific items, but a number of items
It seems possible what Stardust is offering Sicario isn't just any single item, but a list tailored for each of Sicario's key members.

1. Sicario was offered various asylum status within Cascadia. It's heavily hinted in the post-campaign codex entries that Kaiser became head of Cascadia's newly formed Foreign Legion.

2. Comic, Diplomat, and Prez are probably given protection of some kind (but concerns about how well Cascadia can do so while recovering from the Presidian Disaster has Comic and Diplomat deciding to lay low for awhile).

3. Monarch's part of the Deal? A special ACG-01 Chimera, possibly procured from data recovered during Midnight Light, given that it's the only original design Super Prototype available before end of campaign, only has Sicario/Monarch emblems for camouflage options, and seems fit for what could be a rush-built in the time after the Prospero Calamity, considering its Ace Custom design build from a mix of conventional aircraft designs.

The Federation learned about parts of "The Deal" when Kaiser was on his recruiting push, leading to the events at the end of the game
Listen carefully to some of Crimson 1's taunting in the latter missions, claiming to having heard that Monarch was offered a deal by the Cascadian Independence Force and presuming it had something to do with holding power in Cascadia. Where would the Federation possibly hear that? From someone who heard Kaiser's offer from Cascadia when he went roaming after Prospero, either a spy, Federation loyalist, or ex-mercenary who decided to throw in with Feds much like Frost. When Crimson 1, who is also from Cascadia, heard this, he became furious that a mercenary was earning more respect from his homeland than he was. This and probably formal reprimands for his repeated failures to shoot down Monarch when he had the advantage at the Cordium extraction facility caused him to snap.

Icarus Armories is actually Gründer Industries
They got tired of Belka doing nothing wrong.
  • Jossed; Gründer Industries was shut down in the 2020s.

The Federation's military will likely spin off into "Freikorps"-style units postwar
Crimson 1, in spite of his rank and fame, still has limitations. While there were civilian leaders willing to lose with what honor they had left at Presidia, getting your hands on what are effectively nukes and an experimental plane capable of launching them (or at least guiding them home from a launch platform elsewhere) isn't something you can pull off on raw fame and rank alone. Someone very high up the chain of the command has to sign off on this. Someone like whoever signed off on the initial bombing of Prospero. They also have very few scruples, and clearly intended Prospero to terrify the Cascadians into surrendering.

Thus, components of the Pacific Federation's military deliberately hid their actual plans to either try to terrify the Cascadians into backing off again by demonstrating a willingness to keep using such weapons, or outright deny Cascadia any useful territory (thus enforcing 'victory at what cost'). Crimson 1, for various reasons happened to belong to this, but even without him present they might well have stabbed their own government and troops not in on the plan in the back to try and win the war. Naturally, this could fairly easily be spun into an ultranationalist "the civilian government backstabbed the military" direction ala Germany post-WW1 - a stubborn refusal to acknowledge defeat, or blaming that defeat on someone else.

If Crimson 1, who is effectively a Federal globalist in spite being a Cascadian, can go down with this, chances are there are a lot more furious soon-to-be-ex-Federation troops who are going to level the blame at the wrong group and won't work with the Federation government postwar, either becoming mercenaries themselves or paramilitaries within the Federation.

Prez dies if she's with you in the final mission
Just because she went unconscious doesn't mean her body didn't stop taking the Gs. See the Euthanasia Coaster for an idea what happens to someone maintaining constant Gs after g-LOC.
  • The cartoonishly over-the-top physics of the game aside, a dogfight isn't constant Gs like the coaster in the example. Unless you just fly in circles endlessly at G forces that would tear any plane apart, she'll be OK. Probably have a hell of a headache, though.

The object that the Federation found in Oceania, referenced by Faust, is a nuclear weapon
Before her death, General Faust mentions that the Federation discovered an object that all mercenaries hold as holy. It's something of importance that even Faust is concerned about it. And she states that it's something the mercs could use if the war is prolonged. So what could be considered so horrible? The idea is simple: Nuclear weapons of some kind.

Think, Australia of our world holds half the world's uranium supply, meaning they could have the resources to construct weapons of any kind. And Project Wingman takes place in a post-apocalyptic Earth that was similar to our own world before the Calamity. Since Australia is a US ally, it could be possible that American nukes could have ended up in Oceania from any surviving US forces trying to escape or maybe even pre-placed nukes. And nuclear weapons could help explain why the Federation invaded Oceania; mercenaries with modern equipment? Bad. Mercenaries with modern equipment and nuclear weapons? Very bad.

It could also explain where the Federation could build cordium weapons if they're akin to nuclear warheads, 15 years could be enough time to go from nuclear theory to cordium warheads.

Driver is actually an experienced pilot who was transferred into the reserve force
  • Considering Driver is able to display remarkable piloting skills on what is ostensibly supposed to be his very first combat deployment, one explanation is that Driver isn't a naturally gifted rookie, but in fact an experienced pilot who either voluntarily transferred to the reserve force to retire from active duty or was forcibly transferred, likely due to his penchant of picking up speeding tickets. One further clue is that in addition to numerous emails informing him about his speeding tickets, Driver also has emails concerning roster changes for his squadron, implying he's moved around units many times.
    • Further supported by looking at Driver's reservist credentials; his rank is censored, but shows seven hashes for one word, and if the Federation took after the US Air Force, that one-word rank would spell either Captain or Colonel, so he's pretty high up for a reservist.
    • In addition, the Black Eagles who witness his flying prowess point out that his flying style is very similar to those seen during the Federation-Oceanian War, implying Driver is actually a veteran of that conflict.

Crimson Team's insignia
There's a lot of meaning packed into Crimson 1's insignia (and Crimson Team's insignia for that matter). The red crown is an obvious foil to Monarch's own crown insignia. However, Monarch's crown can double as a butterfly, with the "body" shaped in a way that suggests at least two joined segments. Crimson's however resembles something else. The body is noticeably tinier and is almost just a straight line segment. Each "wing" also contains four red segments resembling gemstones that seem to emanate from that line. Considering what happens mid-way through the campaign and the finale? One way to interpret this symbol would actually be a cordium explosion on impact.

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