A story in which one small change has a ripple effect, resulting in massive changes.
Derives from a proverb-turned-poem which traces its origins as far back as the 14th century (making this Older Than Print). Probably the most well-known version is the one which appeared in Benjamin Franklin's Poor Richard's Almanac:
For want of a nail, the shoe was lost; For want of a shoe, the horse was lost; For want of a horse, the rider was lost; For want of a rider, the message was lost; For want of the message, the battle was lost; For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost, And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
A Staples Business Depot TV commercial from the 90s, directly references the trope with a different scenario.
For want of a paperclip, a page was lost. For want of a page, a contract was lost. For want of a contract, a deal was lost. For want of a deal, a factory was lost. For want of a factory, a company was lost. All for the want of a paperclip.
Toshiba Electronics commercials depict this inside the mind of the CEO, leading him to hold back on releasing the product to make sure it has all the features it needs, regardless of the cost. For example, adding shock-proof hard drives to their PC's. He imagines an electrician dropping his laptop, picking it up and plugging it into an outlet at a relay substation, which causes a spark that knocks out the power. This leads to a person's roommate opening the refrigerator, sniffing some milk, noticing it's spoiled but drinks it anyway, immediately turns into a zombie, and unleashes the Zombie Apocalypse on the world.
An ad series for DirecTV starts with a customer experiencing some flaw associated with digital cable, which cascades into random scenarios like waking up in a roadside ditch, selling your hair to a wig shop, or re-enacting scenes from Platoon with Charlie Sheen.
Anime & Manga
The basis for the plot of Dual! Parallel Trouble Adventure is that reality splits depending on whether a construction worker on site when Lost Technology is found takes a sample home when his crew's ordered to destroy the evidence. The Hero, Kazuki is at first able to see into the other reality, and eventually crosses over.
The reboot of the Rozen Maiden manga features Jun, the protagonist of the original manga, who decided to take the blue pill path instead, resulting in him not meeting the dolls and remaining a hikikomori for the remainder of his mid school duration. We meet him as a disgruntled college student with a bad side job, and frequently being laughed at due to his past status as a hikikomori. That is, until Shinku and the other dolls from the original continuity appear in his continuity...
One of the recurring themes in Legend of the Galactic Heroes, where seemingly minor events cause a huge impact on history. What if Kircheis had been armed during Ansbach's assassination attempt and survived instead of died? What if the supply depot Muller attacked had fought back instead of surrendering, so that he couldn't rescue Reinhard? What if Hilde hadn't persuaded Mittermeyer to attack Heinessen to force a ceasefire, or if Yang ignored said ceasefire? What if Yang hadn't allowed the "Imperial escorts" on his ship so that they couldn't assassinate him?
In the Mai-Otome manga, Sergay is not Nina's father and Nagi, while not a very good person, is not the main antagonist. As a result, Nina stays on the heroes' side for the entire story.
On a lesser scale, Sergay is not anonymously paying for Arika's education in the manga, forcing her to take on several side jobs and leaving her no time to study, at one point putting her in danger of failing and dropping out.
In Dragon Ball Z, the main timeline ends up being VERY different than the one Trunks comes from for reasons that aren't really well explained. For example, Androids #17 and #18 are much more powerful in the main timeline but not really all that evil (they do initially intend to kill Goku out of boredom but don't really go out of their way to hurt anyone else). Android #19 didn't exist in the Trunks' timeline nor did Android #20 (Dr. Gero had never turned himself into an Android). Goku also got sick MUCH later than he did in Trunks' timeline.
Actually much of this was explained. 17 and 18 were altered to be more powerful because of Trunks's arrival and the power increases of the other characters. Since Goku died in Trunks's timeline, Gero's focus changed and he made the androids into world domination machines (adjusting their personalities for the task) still strong enough to take on inexperienced Super Saiyans but still weaker than the main timeline versions. Gero probably altered himself and created Android 19 because of the appearance of more combatants with formidable power levels. This was because Trunks warned them about the androids and they trained to become more powerful. Also, in Trunks's timeline Goku was the one who fought Frieza on Earth by teleporting using instant transmission and the fight caused the virus to kill him sooner. Since he didn't go through any big fight, when Trunks killed Frieza, Goku never caused the virus's progress to accelerate and kill him when it did in Trunks's time.
The difference in strength between the main and alternate timeline versions of #17 & #18 was explained differently in the manga. In the ‘Trunks: The Story’ chapter when Gohan was fighting #17 & #18, immediately before #17 kills Gohan, #17 tells him that he’d been using no more than half of his power. After a short timeskip we see Bulma & Trunks debating the need for a time machine. Trunks thinks he’s already gotten strong enough to defeat 17 & 18, while Bulma thinks he’s too naďve since he was only at about Gohan’s level and Gohan was still killed. After this we see Trunks leave to fight them and the next panel we see they’ve put him in the hospital. There is no actual proof that the full magnitude of 17’s power (and possibly also 18’s) was revealed to Trunks before he went back in time. Assuming that Trunks was unaware of 17 & 18’s full power in his timeline, it would explain his surprise at their power in the main timeline. This would also indicate that the androids from the main timeline were actually just as strong as those in the alternate timelines and that Trunks was simply unaware of that fact.
In Blood+, Saya and Diva are twin sisters. Joel raised Saya like a daughter, whereas Amshel kept Diva locked in a tower, treating her like an experiment. When Saya receives this history lesson, she can't help but sympathize with her sister, knowing full well that they could just as easily wound up with their roles switched.
As revealed in Mobile Suit Gundam Unicorn, just about everything that's happened in the Universal Century, from the Earth Federation's MO to the One Year War and beyond, could be traced in some form or another to the Laplace incident in UC 0001.
The fanfiction tag 'Bad Ending', or variations of it, is often used to signify a story that diverges from canon events with tragic results.
Anime & Manga
The central premise of Lyrical Nanoha fanfic Game Theory is that Precia Testarossa is a little saner than she was in canon, and consequentially knows that being an outright Abusive Parent is a really bad way of controlling Fate. The result is that canon gets turned on it's ear, and Butterflies Of Doom spread even more changes.
Horseshoes and Hand Grenades is a Kamen Rider Fourze fic that starts with Kengo trying to save Gentaro from death (ep. 32). What actually happens? Gentaro was resurrected by a serpent called Ophiuchus who brainwashed him to believe that his friends didn't care that he died. This has caused the Kamen Rider Club to do their best to fight their former friend, brought in seven Kamen Riders and characters from their shows, and many stories detailing Simultaneous Arcs involved with many other secondary characters.
What might have happened in Bleach if Ichigo had been a few seconds slower when recovering his powers in the Shattered Shaft? Not Quite as Planned answers that question in the most awesome way possible.
Fallen King's events begin when Pegasus wins the duel instead of Yugi.
Bleach's fanfic A Grudge Not Held has Rangiku never getting hurt by Aizen's lackeys and therefore giving Gin no reason to join him for revenge. Gin is still the captain of the Third Division, but as he spends most of his time with Rangiku (who is now his Vice Captain instead of Toshirou's), he formed more bonds and more concerns about others (he still has an incredible sadistic streak, though). This leading to him and Rangiku busted Rukia out of her jail. Several matches up to the Deicide arc are changed. Also, there are other important factors such as Hitsugaya is the one who follow Aizen instead of Gin, Harribel is killed by Yamamoto, Gin's never developed the poison in his Bankai, Rangiku is stronger because she was trained by Gin, etc...
Reversal Of Fate, a Tsubasa Chronicle fan fiction by Tonight's The Night is set up on the basis that it is Syaoran, not Sakura the one who lost who lost his memories and Sakura would have to be the one finding the feathers. As their personality and experience are different, the story branches off almost immediately resulting in different sets of Character Development for them.
Shinji And Warhammer 40 K's starting premise is that discovering the eponymous game as a child gave Shinji Ikari a hobby that helped him build confidence and strategic, tactical, and interpersonal skills, with the resulting Character Development changing the way he deals with the events of Evangelion canon. It eventually turns into something more like a crossover.
Queen Serenity coughed while casting the resurrection spell that would revive her daughter along with everyone else. The result? The Moon Princess is Nanoha Takamachi, as seen in White Devil of the Moon.
In The Unicorn At HogwartsTwilight Sparkle's friendship with Neville leads to her saving him from injury during their first flying class, and the incident that got Harry recruited to the Quidditch team never takes place. This leads to Harry being reluctant to attend the Halloween feast at first, and when he does come downstairs, he gets cornered by the troll and Twilight has to rescue him. On the other hand, Word of God stated that he wrote Hermione out of the story's main plot because he felt that she and Twilight Sparkle are too similar in personality and characteristics, and so felt that not having her attend Hogwarts would be better for the plot. Thus, Twilight was sent to a version of the Potterverse in which a nail had already changed the plot somewhat.
Magical Pony Lyrical Twilight, a Fusion Fic of MLP and Lyrical Nanoha has the Jewel Seeds landing in Ponyville instead of Earth, thus setting the events of the three Nanoha series in Ponyville instead.
A lot of people die who would have otherwise been saved in Hybrid Theory because the presence of so many new people running around means that any given Contrived Coincidence in the source material, such as a Sailor Senshi being in a specific park at a certain time, simply might not happen.
We get to see how the Hellsing manga would develop if Alucard was taken out near the start of its story. It isn't pretty.
A Man Of Iron has Tony Stark taking Jon back to Iron Pointe with him, meaning that he isn't there to befriend Samwell Tarly at the Wall. As a result, Sam is rescued by Tyrion before he takes his vows.
Another story actually mentions this trope by name; In Chaos Theory, the nail in question is that instead of letting Ilya vanish mysteriously into the night after her cryptic message, Shirou tries to make nice with this little girl who's clearly out on her own. This jumpstarts some Character Development for Ilya, letting her see that her target is more than Kiritsugi's favorite and not nearly as cold as her father was, becoming a what some consider a fanmade "Ilya Route".
The Back to the Future fanfic "The Almanac Chronicles" has several, but one in particular stands out. President John F. Kennedy is not assassinated on November 22, 1963. It is implied this was due to Biff saving someone's life while on vacation in the Bahamas, a vacation he would not have taken had he not made his fortune from the almanac.
In the Total Drama story, Legacy, a delay of a few seconds has consequences that reverberate for years.
In the Superjail! fanfic An Unexpected Child, the Mistress becomes pregnant with the Warden's child after the events of her debut episode "Ladies' Night". This of course leads to a strange chain of events, involving a maze in the center of the Earth and a circus that gets its entertainment from slaughtering, that ultimately result in Mistress having the baby, a one-month premature little girl whom she decides to name after her mother and also Warden's mother in their honor, at the end.
The confirmation of an alien invasion force on it's way to Earth has far more of an effect than one would expect as shown in Worldwar: War of Equals. For instance, some people die earlier than they did in OTL such as Hugo Chavez and Robert Mugabe, has people living past their date of death such as Muammar Gaddafi, has some leader stay in power longer such as Hosni Mubarak, has wars such as the Arab-Israeli Conflict and the War On Terror either put on hold or ended, among many others.
The Super Dangan Ronpa 2 fanfic System Restore diverges from canon when Togami trips and falls during the blackout at the party. This results in Hanamura killing Komaeda instead of him, drastically changing the events that follow.
This is the basic premise of Total Drama Underdogs, as it shows how TDI would have been if Ezekiel never made his infamous sexist comments and Courtney was eliminated instead of him. The changes get each time bigger as the story unfolds.
In "What if Snape Died", we see a timeline where James fails to save Snape's life. Remus Lupin and Sirius Black were expelled from Hogwarts for the prank. That and James having no time for friends ever since he and Lily started dating resulted in Peter Pettigrew being a loner for the rest of his days as a Hogwarts student. Pettigrew still became a Death Eater but never had a chance to spy on the Light or frame Sirius with anything. After graduation, James, Sirius and Remus had no news from Pettigrew until his death during a raid that took place after James and Lily's marriage. Because nobody overheard the prophecy, Dumbledore decided to keep it to himself out of fear the Potters and/or the Longbottoms might accidentally call Voldemort's attention to it if they knew. Harry grew up with both parents until he was five. Then, while they were out to shop, Voldemort and some Death Eaters showed up. Lily sacrificed herself to save Harry, Voldemort was defeated and Harry became the Boy-Who-Lived. James and Sirius were around to raise Harry despite Dumbledore still wanting him to live with the Dursleys. James said he'd rather kill Harry. In the meantime, Lucius Malfoy killed Frank Longbottom and was forced to spend the rest of his days in Azkaban as punishment; Xeno Lovegood found out Voldemort was a half-blood named Tom Riddle, published it and was killed for that, resulting in Mrs. Lovegood selling the Quibbler and not risking her life in any charms experiments so she'd be around to raise her daughter. Narcissa Malfoy, under the excuse of applying for the Defense teaching position, entered Hogwarts Castle to slip Riddle's diary to Percy. She ended up joining her husband in Azkaban. Sirius Black took custody of Draco Malfoy, who became a non-bigoted Ravenclaw. James became the Defense teacher and Harry used his link to Voldemort to end the curse on the job. James Potter and Alice Longbottom got married and had a daughter named Lily. During Harry's first year as a Hogwarts student, Quirrel took the Astronomy position instead of Defense. By the time he lost his life attempting to steal the Philosopher's stone, Voldemort already had no Horcruxes to keep him alive.
While the basic concept of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality is "Everyone is smarter and the Idiot Ball doesn't exist," the missing nail that brings about the most change is that Harry's aunt Petunia reconciled with her sister Lily, and went on to marry a prestigious scientist instead of Vernon Dursley. As a result, Harry has a happy childhood and is a great deal smarter, more cunning, and more cynical than his canon counterpart.
In Harry Potter and the Power of Paranoia Harry doesn't go back to Hogwarts fifth year and puts his identity under a Fidelius Charm in order to hide from Death Eaters and the Ministry. When Hermione forgets his existence as a result and decides Hogwarts is unsafe, she has her parents pull her out of school - but not before mentioning it to gossip queen Lavender Brown. Rumor spreads and eventually Muggleborn and some halfbloods are leaving not just Hogwarts, but Britain itself, in droves. As the author puts it, "The Great British Muggleborn Diaspora began with a simple conversation between two teenage witches."
My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic
In Rainbooms and Royalty, the central conceit is that Princess Celestia was in Cloudsdale rather than Canterlot when the Mane Cast earned their cutie marks, and took Rainbow Dash as her student rather than Twilight Sparkle, despite knowing that the Pegasus was more inclined to athletics rather than academics.
The oneshot "Tyrant" shows what happens when Twilight Sparkle chooses to NOT give up her alicorn powers to Tirek to save her friends.
A Minor Variation is another story that changes the events of the Sonic Rainboom, in this case by having rainbow dash literally lose a shoe for want of a nail. It diverges a LOT harder than Rainbooms and Royalty.
And in The Cadanceverseboth of them went evil, forcing Cadance to seal both away, leading the Elements of Harmony to go to a group of musicians instead. (Oddly, Fluttershy is still an element, albeit of Generosity rather than Kindness.)
Make a Wish has Scootaloo dealing with the implications of this when her wish to be Rainbow Dash's sister comes true, rewriting history. Her first concern is her own parents who, while they had been happy enough in the original timeline, appeared to be better off in a world where Scootaloo's birth didn't force them to marry each other. The flip side of this was Rainbow Dash's relationship with her family, which appeared to develop problems precisely because of Scootaloo's presence. Though this is somewhat subverted with her father, who characters say would likely be how he was regardless.
The entire story of The Path of Absolution - Punishment hinges on Diamond Tiara taking the time to read the letter that the Cutie Mark Crusaders wrote, leading to her not publishing it and causing a whole bunch of drama to follow, starting with the suicides of the CMC and ultimately going for more darker stuff.
The Manehattanverse got kicked off by the Elements of Harmony being moved from the ruins of the castle to the Manehattan museum of supernatural history several months before the effective first ep. As a result Twilight Sparkle is sent there instead of ponyville and meets a different cast.
In the Stallions Of Harmony Verse Twilight Sparkle already has friends (Sunset Shimmer and Moondancer), so she wasn't sent to Ponyville. Instead, Prince Blueblood was, along with Shining Armor acting as his bodyguard. They, along with four other stallions, become the Elements of Harmony.
In Parting Words and its sequel The Great Alicorn Hunt, history diverges rather dramatically when Twilight Sparkle finally gets sick of Celestia's Trickster Mentor ways and quits being her student. For starters, Sombra gets his flank kicked in less than five minutes, and when Twilight receives Starswirl the Bearded's last spell, she has enough self-confidence and stability that she gets it right the first time, and all six of the main cast ascend...
Nav often plays the role of a nail in Diaries of a Madman when canon plots from Friendship is Magic crop up. Most notably, A Canterlot Wedding ends very differently due to his presence.
In TD the Alicorn Princess, Twilight ends up being knocked out by one of Rarity's out of control storms. As a result, TD ends up taking her place, and events wildly diverge from the canon episode.
In Sylvia The Sylveon, Bolt, one of Sylvia's brothers, is caught by a trainer in front of Sylvia, who is unsuccessful in saving him. When Sylvia reunites with Bolt, we find out that he was treated well by his trainer, has become much nicer as a result, and was released so he could start a family.
A New Chance Series diverges from Pokemon canon after the fifth movie when Ash, through a soul bonding technique, is able to save the Latios he befriended. Out of gratitude and a desire for adventure, he and his sister Latias end up joining him on his journey, while Ash gains the ability to speak with Pokemon. Other changes include:
Ash arrives too late to Mount Silver to save Larvitar's mother from the poachers that stole him, so Larvitar becomes Ash's official Pokemon.
Ash places fourth in the Johto League
Bianca goes from a one movie character to a recurring character in the first story, and later becomes Ash's traveling companion in Hoenn in the second story.
Pidgeot returns to Ash after being reminded of his promise by Pikachu, and goes with him to Hoenn.
Team Rocket are robbed by Rico, only this time they lose Arbok, Weezing and Meowth. Ash and his Pokemon are able to rescue them, which among other things, convinces Team Rocket to give up stealing Pokemon
Ned Stark Lives is about Ned Stark, well, being saved from execution by Joffrey when Varys drugs him to prevent Littlefinger's plans of starting a catastrophic war come to fruition. Apart from Jon's and Dany's stories remaining relatively unchanged, the state of Westeros is, in comparison to what happens in the books, much better because of this.
The Dragon Returns: Game Of Thrones deals with Rhaegar Taragryen, who had faked his death, who returns with his family to Westeros to take back the Iron Throne.
The Wrong Reflection: The established differences between the prime universe and the Mirror Universe mean that the typical "same crew as our side but EVIL" trope in Mirror UniverseStar Trek stories doesn't apply to the USS Bajor. There is no ISS Bajor because Bajor is part of the Klingon-Cardassian Alliance, and because most of Prime Eleya's command crew are members of Terran-allied species, there's no mirror version of them either. Frankly they were lucky to even get a Mirror Eleya, and she's an officer in the Cardassian military rather than the Imperial Starfleet.
Wily and Proud takes place in an AU where Rusty was a stray, not a housepet. This change means that he becomes ruthless and paranoid in order to survive, and ends up joining ShadowClan instad of ThunderClan.
Life as a stray comes with a number of hardships, he reasoned with himself. These hardships have changed me. This is not who I am. This is not my fault. I am an honorable cat. Nevertheless, the white tom lay dead at Rusty's paws, its fur matted with dirt.
Lola rennt (a.k.a. Run, Lola, Run): the wildly variant endings of Lola's twenty-minute "Groundhog Day" Loop can all be traced back to Lola's reaction to the boy with the dog on the staircase.
Sliding Doors has catching/not catching a train as the "nail" and ends with dramatically different versions of the protagonist.
The 'nail' moment was marked with music and later in the film when the protagonist had to make a decision the music was played again. Although we didn't follow this 'split' it implied that there were more points where a single decision would be important.
However, the event that happened in one case at the beginning of the film discovering her boyfriend's infidelity still happened in the other case at the end of the film, after many near misses, so on a broader timescale the system was not that sensitive to initial conditions.
Some events are constant between the two timelines. The system is still highly sensitive, though: in one of them, the protagonist dies.
In the movie Frequency, a son manages to send a message back in time and save his firefighter father's life. However, because of this change, his mother, who was a nurse, never left the hospital to make funeral arrangements and so was on duty to save the life of a man who should have died. This man turns out to be a serial killer who kills the mother and is now still at large in the present of the son.
The whole "Pottersville" sequence in It's a Wonderful Life is an example of this. George's having never been born turns out to have an indelible effect on the lives of pretty much everyone he's ever known in real life. (Of course, the whole idea of the movie is how much one man can make a difference.)
The Back to the Future film trilogy is a series of nails showing what would have happened if a certain event did or didn't occur:
In the first movie, Marty McFly's father was a wimp who couldn't stand up to the bully Biff Tannen, but after Marty changed events concerning his father in 1955, he becomes a more confident man who has Biff eating out of his hand, and Marty's family life has also improved.
In the second movie, Grey's Sports Almanac was the nail that, when old Biff from 2015 gave it young Biff in 1955, caused Hill Valley in 1985 to become Biff's lawless empire where he killed Marty's father and married Marty's mother, adopting her children in the process. With the nail removed, history reverted to how it originally unfolded in the first movie.
Also in the second movie, an automobile accident that would have happened in the third movie when Marty was racing with his friend Needles was the nail that caused Marty's future history to go down the toilet by 2015, eventually resulting in him being fired from the company he and Needles were working for. When the accident was avoided in the third movie, the YOU'RE FIRED message that Marty's girlfriend/future wife Jennifer Parker had received from the future was erased, meaning that their future could potentially become a better one.
Lampshaded by the scriptwriters in the Audio Commentary of the first Pirates of the Caribbean movie. The entire plot is basically kicked off by a corset being laced too tightly.
The Narada being sent back through time causes a divergence, creating the 2009 Star Trek reboot. James Kirk's father dies by suicide-charging his ship into it, James himself is born in space rather than Iowa, he and Spock do not meet on the best of terms, and Vulcan is completely destroyed.
Don't forget Starfleet technology being more advanced thanks to the scans of the Narada taken by the Kelvin. Then there's the destruction of an entire Klingon fleet, as well as a dozen newest Starfleet ships with the entire graduating class of the Academy.
There's a nail in that one, too: Had Sulu not futzed up trying to warp out with the ships, the Enterprise would have joined the others in the scrapheap.
There's also the potential that the Narada altered history BEFORE it actually arrived. The Kelvin is clearly represented as being a much smaller class of starship than the Enterprise, yet it has a crew of over eight hundred (from Pike's line about Kirk's father being "Captain of a starship for eight minutes, and in that time he managed to save almost eight hundred lives.") The TOS Enterprise had a canonical crew of only 435. Then again, this may be due to all the temporal cold war horse hockey from Enterprise.
This continues into the sequel, where Khan/John Harrison is found and awakened decades before he was supposed to, and Starfleet is in no condition for the coming war with the Klingons (when the emergency is called, only about a dozen captains and their Number Ones are present at the meeting). It's also implied that the Praxis incident happened much earlier than expected, possibly due to misuse of technology obtained from studying the Narada.
Additionally, since Kirk is much younger in this reality than before, some of his actions are more rash than an older Kirk (especially one who grew up with a father) might have made. In the sequel, he readily violates the Prime Directive in the most spectacular way possible, and gets demoted for this (and for lying in his official report about this).
Rules Lawyer and borderline Jerkass Genie Rumpelstiltskin offers Shrek a Deal with the Devil in Shrek Forever After: Shrek gets one day as a lawless ogre in exchange for one day from his past. Rumpelstiltskin takes the day Shrek was born, thus creating a world in which Shrek never existed. One of the biggest changes is the fate of Fiona, who without anyone to save her from the tower chose to Screw Destiny and simply escaped by herself.
The Lord of the Rings, as is mostly canonically adapted from the books (though occasionally not), bounces the outcome of its story backwards and forwards through the many separate applications of this trope within its work. Here are the lost nails, in numerical order:
1.Sauron, with his left hand firmly holding the Idiot Ball (as well as his mace), extends his right hand - the one carrying the Ring of Power - out to Isildur.
The whole point of Jay-Z's American Gangster is basically showing the mirror universe where Sean Carter kept on selling drugs instead of going into music.
Bowling for Soup's "Almost"'s verses each have chain of events that might have happened, if not for the first event in the chain only "almost" happening:
Verse 1: "I almost got drunk at school at 14 / and I almost made out with the Homecoming Queen / who almost went on to be Miss Texas / but lost to a slut with much bigger breastes / who almost dropped out to move to L.A. / and was almost famous for almost a day"
Verse 2: "I almost held up a grocery store / where I almost did five years and then seven more / 'cause I almost caught for a fight with a thug / who almost made off with a bunch of the drugs / that I almost got hooked on when you ran away / and I wish I could've had the nerve to ask you to stay"
Verse 3: "And I almost wrote a song about you today / but I tore it all up / and then I threw it away"
In Norse Mythology, Freyr is doomed to lose the fight to Surtur at Ragnarok because he gave his good sword away to Skirnir.
Play By Post Games
Fate Nuovo Guerra has at least two so far, being an Alternate Universe story and all. More obviously, the destruction of Fuyuki City caused the Einzberns to pack up and move operations to Lucca, where the next Holy Grail War takes place. Less obviously, the lack of a living Shirou results in Luvia getting killed while fighting a Dead Apostle Ancestor by herself, as well as the very existence of the Edelfelt Sisters Lumi and Lempi.
In Big Finish Doctor WhoThe Mutant Phase the Doctor and Nyssa arriving draws a Dalek over. This Dalek getting stung by a genetically-modified wasp nearly destroys the Universe. It is revealed to be a Stable Time Loop caused by Daleks from an alternate timeline, whose attempt to draw the TARDIS into the future caused it to land and create the alternate timeline, though the time loop was further made by the Dalek Emperor travelling back to prevent this.
During Magic: The Gathering's Time Spiral block, the middle set (representing the present) featured "alternate universe" versions of certain cards, primarily reprinting older cards into other colors that would best represent them if various mechanics hadn't been assigned as they were. Keeping in the spirit of "What if?", the flavor text on a good portion of the cards give quick looks at an entire subplot that revolved around what would've happened if Mirri had slain Selenia before Crovax had a chance to, thus fulfilling the terms of a family curse, turning her into a vampire instead of him.
In a nice scenario for a Dr Who style RPG the player's TARDIS comes to rest in the car park of a film studio. This causes John Wayne to have to find another spot so he is late and angry for his meeting to discuss playing Genghis Khan. Instead Ronald Reagan gets the role and cancer inducing radiation dose. President Wayne's foreign policy isn't a great success either.
John Wayne was a very heavy smoker throughout his life (at one point up to six packs of cigarettes a day!) and in 1964 nearly died of lung cancer (one lung was removed and The Duke needed supplemental oxygen for the rest of his life). Any contamination he might have received from the set of The Conquerer was likely just The Last Straw given what he'd already done to himself.
This is actually a means to become 'fragged' or disassociated from the right timeline in the time-travel RPG Continuum. You can destroy a time traveler by introducing a few of these little changes into his perceived timeline. "Replacing the nail" is a defense. Did an enemy time-traveler realize you sat in a coffee shop and read a book on Saturday, July 8th, 1995? He can frag you by doing something as simple as stealing the book out of your bag. You can reverse it by replacing a near-identical copy into your bag before "past you" notices the change. Screwing over a major historical event could bring down the wrath of any number of time travelers, all of whom find themselves affected by the change.
The true turning point of Clockwork And Chivalry's timeline is a Battle of Naseby that does not fall under this trope, differing from the real battle in almost every significant particular and ultimately ending in a bloody stalemate that leaves thousands dead and no clear victor, along with Fairfax MIA and presumed dead... but one of the most important changes to the battle and the course of history does fit this trope — The Earl of Carnwath is killed by cannon shrapnel, and is unable to prevent King Charles from engaging in his suicidal charge of the enemy forces, leading to his being captured and executed a full 3 years early following a trial that was even more swift and blatantly stacked against him than the real one, with both the lead-up to this and the aftermath of it leading to numerous changes in the course of history.
Higurashi: When They Cry has a bad case of this; every arc it's something else in the initial factors—minor things like a man moving into the village or even Keiichi giving someone a doll—that sets off a completely different scenario of bloody tragedy.
In Umineko: When They Cry we have Lion, who appears in a fragment where Natsuhi accepted the baby that Kinzo gave her and didn't throw him/her over the cliff, therefore letting Lion lead a well-adjusted life and not growing up to be Yasu. Though ultimately subverted in that Lion is still murdered during the massacre...or so Bernkastel claims.
A subversion is mentioned in the Ep 8 manga where it is mentioned that even if Battler would have kept his promise to Shannon/Yasu, Yasu would have still thought him/herself as furniture and so it still wouldn't have saved him/her.
A large number of 'nails' exist in Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors. Every possible choice- from Junpei's travel partners to whether or not you take a bookmark- influences your fate. Akane is watching them all unfold, to find the best fate for her to follow.
A little toy doll, of all things, ends up playing a pivotal role in Akane's backstory. While escaping the first Deadly Game with Seven, she dropped it and ran back to get it...which led to her getting caught by the murderous Zero and getting thrown in the incinerator room...which led to her Traumatic Superpower Awakening...which allowed her to establish a psychic connection with Future!Junpei...which saved her life...which meant that, several years later, she had to trap Junpei, herself, and eight others in a similar Deadly Game so Junpei could connect psychically with Akane's past self, fulfil the paradox, and ensure her survival. If not for that oneimportant item falling at that one crucial moment, the entire game's events could have been averted.
Erfworld Book 1 starts with this trope. The narrated opening scene shows the world's creators dropping one extra gem into a resource spot, which pays for an extra squad of units to go to field against Gobwin Knob's army, which is just enough to tip the balances in a heated battle, which means that Gobwin Knob's chief warlord gets an arrow between the eyes, which means that Gobwin Knob needs a new chief warlord before The Alliance shows up on their doorstep, which means that Wanda Firebaugh's bad day is about to get a lot worse. And then Parson blows up a volcano. Judging from the way the story is going, this was just the start.
In a time-travel example: the Schlock Mercenary time-travel plotline in Book 6 invokes this trope, but isn't itself an example.
Homestuck has innumerable offshoot timelines which all create elements necessary for the existence of the primary timeline. In one of those offshoot timelines, Karkat never runs the Mobius Double Reacharound virus. Without the virus (or some effect the virus had, such as possibly the deaths of the lusii), Gamzee does his From Nobody to Nightmare transformation much earlier than he was supposed to, and succeeds in murdering all of the trolls minus Aradia.
This also applies to the Alpha timeline; especially notable is the chain of events starting with Gamzee placing a harlequin doll in John's bedroom on Derse, which ultimately leads to Jack Noir destroying the Kids' universe.
In General Protection Fault, the Nega-Verse is what would happen if Nick and Ki were evil and acted on Nick's fantasy of taking over the world that was discussed in a brief arc early on. There are smaller examples, such as Nega-Trudy being as selfish as Trudy Prime until her mother's request for her to finde her sister (something Trudy Prime didn't hear about until after her Evil Plan failed) changed her for the better.
Parodied in this strip of Tom the Dancing Bug. Percival Dunwoody wonders if he caused the people of 2012 to turn into fly-men when he stepped on a twig in the Paleozoic; it turns out that he actually did it by killing off all the humans in 2011 and injecting flies with human DNA.
ThisSubnormality strip. If you look closely enough, the last panel nearly spells out this trope.
Decades of Darkness has president Thomas Jefferson dying of a heart attack. His bumbling successor James Madison manages to anger the New England states enough so they leave the union and defend themselves successfully in a war, splitting the USA forever. The slave states get the majority and transform the rest into an expansionist slave-holding empire.
Look to the West's very different world (Steam Punk revolutionary France, a divided India, French Australia, loyalist America) all stems from George II tripping on the carpet at his coronation in 1727.
The 4chan imageboard /co/ had a thread that speculated what would happen if Bruce Wayne's parents never died. The result? Bruce and a certain fellow named "Jack Napier" end up becoming best friends, Gotham City goes through a golden age, and the readers cried manly tears.
4chan's /tg/ board does this as well, some of the more recent ones, the crusades are won in the third crusade, the slew of changes involve a massive Kingdom of Jerusalem, The Library of Baghdad still stands, the reconquista never happened to its fullest extent, and the rising heresies move the reformation in a very different direction (Cathars, Flagellants and Waldensians rather than Anglicans, Calvinists, and Lutherans.) And these are the most normal things to come from it.
In the Chaos Timeline, Genghis Khan dying from a minor accident in 1200 prevents the unification of the Mongol tribes and their subsequent global conquests. The world becomes very different...
No Spanish Civil War in 1936 sees a (non-Stalinist) leftist Republican Spain not only survive the attempted coup in 1936 (with Franco critical to the thwarting of that plot), but become a junior partner of the Allies when World War 2 rolls along, having an anarchist (Buenaventura Durruti) for a president, and great advances in Spanish influence in the arts of the mid-20th Century, all because Casares answered a letter from Franco that didn't go answered in real life.
The Union and Liberty timeline begins with a small change in Andrew Jackson's 1828 campaign platform and changing a few words in a John Calhoun speech.
A More Personal Union begins when a young man recovers from a mid-autumn cold. The young man is the king of France, and the cold would have killed him; instead he lives for another seven years, and his continued reign brings very big changes to France.
Red vs. Blue averted this during Season 3. Church is blown back into the past and realizes that he can stop everything from happening. Instead, he just creates an army of Churches as he realizes that everything is set in stone. Because it was all his fault.
Season 10 goes to show that if Carolina had kept Sigma, her assigned AI and learned to realize that she wouldn't ever be able to beat Tex, Project Freelancer would have been spared a lot of pain and misery. Maine wouldn't be reborn as the Meta, as Sigma wouldn't be able to influence him; she wouldn't request both Eta and Iota as AI, which means that Wash would never have received Epsilon and learned the truth behind everything, and South wouldn't have gone Cain and Abel on her twin brother.
In Counter Monkey, Spoony recounts the "Leaping Wizards" incident wherein he was serving as DM for a Dungeons & Dragons module for the RPGA. Reading through the module, he found a particularly pathetic ambush by three wizards, each with a single spell. Knowing the encounter would be a cakewalk, he altered each wizard's spell so that, rather than each having the default Magic Missile, it was a variety of Sleep, Charm, and Ray of Enfeeblement. Through a combination of this change and some lucky rolls, the vastly outclassed wizards killed two party members before going down... much to the displeasure of the RPGA, as the module was intentionally weak to prevent player deaths.