Iraqi Kurdistan Referendum

Similar to what's happening in Catalonia, the Kurds in Iraq have started a referendum vote towards an independent Kurdistan and Iraq, Iran and Turkey are starting up economic blockades to the region since it garnered more than 90% of the vote. Flights aren't allowed there except if it's for diplomatic, military or for aid reasons.

Kurdish leaders mentioned that they want to use it as a basis of future negotiations with Baghdad.

Iraq/Iran/Turkey are starting military exercises, but the Iraqi government has mentioned that it's a thing that's meant to be done but Kurds are getting a bit paranoid.

Countries that have separatist problems including Canada and China are anxious, but are also keeping an eye on it. Al Jazeera reports that Iraqi Army forces are planning to take over key spots in the Kurdish border regions as a safety precaution.

https://ph.news.yahoo.com/iran-puts-economic-squeeze-iraqi-kurds-152733036.html (This is latest news on putting the squeeze on it)

edited 1st Oct '17 7:12:09 AM by Ominae

Opening this.

As far as I care, other countries need to suck up their change aversion. The Kurds issue has been procrastinated long enough.

I do wonder if (and it's a medium-sized if, at the moment), after the Iraqi part inhabited by Kurds becomes independent (or at least, able to fend off the troops from the Iraqi government), Kurds in other areas where they've been prominent for decades or centuries (including within Syria and Turkey) will try to join the Iraqi part and form the Kurdistan nation. I suspect a lot of blood will be spilled, if that happens.

edited 1st Oct '17 6:56:04 AM by Quag15

I suspect that Syrian Kurdistan will either move in that direction or towards it's own independence. Thing is if a united Kurdistan did come about it might not stay united very long as the various political factions struggled for power.

Problem is Rojava or Syrian Kurdistan has a different government structure than Iraqi (or now main) Kurdistan. They are a libertarian-socalist nation, like a socialist state but with more direct-democracy.

And Iraqi Kurdistan is a monarchy in all but name.

https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2017/09/29/how-big-an-army-does-iraqi-kurdistan-have/

There's a writeup on the current standing of the Peshmerga.

Baghdad has ordered the arrest of Kurdish officials (members of the electoral commission) involved with the vote, though they can't really enforce it.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41583900

Stay tuned boys and girls, the train has no brakes.

https://ph.news.yahoo.com/iraq-kurd-fighters-block-roads-second-city-mosul-083743539.html

Peshmerga forces have been given orders to seal off roads going in and out to Kurdish territory in Iraq.

AFP news agency tweet:

So far it appears to be thousands of troops on each side, staring eachother down from a few K Ms away. No violence just yet, though apparently the Kurds have ceded a few minor outposts in tactical withdrawals.

Here's hoping that Baghdad isn't pants on head stupid enough to start another civil war while their first one is just moving into the stay behind/insurgency phase....

Iraqi forces clash with Kurds in operation to 'impose security' on Kirkuk

One more conflict/war incoming, then?

edited 16th Oct '17 7:48:59 AM by Quag15

Kirkuk has fallen, Kurds gave it up without a fight and retreated.

Tweets showed Iraqi forces posing at the abandoned govt offices and secured oil/gas facilities.

Hope they don't advance on the non disputed areas....

Seems like Trump bothsided the clashes.

All he has to do now is bothside the Cold War...

Honestly that a better responce than I’d expect, the US government was never going to come out in favour of the Kurds against Baghdad, staying neutral is better than trying to shove the Kurds under a buss.

Lovely, we armed and trained both sides in this conflict... .

I hope IS is so weakened now that it won't benefit from any potential escalation.

I’d rather the current situation where we armed and trained both sides than the alternative, both sides having been slaughtered by ISIS.

It’s a shame that the US has no soft power at the moment, under a competent administration it might be able to get both sides to agree to a deal.

Fair enough, it is still very frustrating to watch.

I think this is the point where the US needs to step in. Both sides are well equipped and battle hardened, a civil war would be disastrous. Like, possibly way worse than the current fighting. Especially considering how many other players are involved here. Turkish and Iranian tanks are on the border and Turkey has been saying they'll work with Iraq to "pacify" the region, Iran wants to work with Turkey and there's Russian units all over in the border region between Syria and Kurdistan.

There's a real danger that US forces in Manbij and Deir al-Zor could get trapped or otherwise put in danger if a region wide conflict breaks out. There have already been close calls.

I'm not sure what steps could be taken but the US needs to take a strong stance ASAP.

They can't. If they take a stance any other than fully committing against the Kurds, Turkey's gonna get mad and the US needs them as a Cold War counterweight against Russia. If push comes to shove, the US will sell the Kurds out to keep Turkey in the camp.

There's also the fact that if the US were to side with the Kurds, half the Middle East will be screaming for American blood once more.

edited 17th Oct '17 8:30:27 AM by amitakartok

I don’t think that the US is capable of selling out the Kurds, they knew this day was coming, the US pulling support isn’t going to cause them to collapse.

Unless the US directly helps the Iraqi or Turkish armies invade Kurdistan I don’t see it happening.

Also I remain unconvinced on Turkey being needed as a counterweight to Russia, with the growth in Russia-Turkey ties it’s currently being a real shitty counterweight.

That’s before we get into the mess of the US foreign policy executive and if it’s even capable of having a coherent policy right now.

Shitty or not, a counterweight's a counterweight and the US has no other major ally in the region.