2016: A Damnable Year

right/left has nothing to do with how bad last year was. Though partisanism in general does.

As far as the Doomsday clock goes, it's not just about nuclear war; we're dangerously close to the tipping point when it comes to the environment, and looming technological developments will undoubtedly add even more sources of existential risk factors for the human species. A survey of experts put the odds of human survival over the course of the 21st century at approximately 80%, which aren't odds I'd be prepared to bet everything on.

The odds of a mass casualty event claiming more than a billion lives over the course of the 21st century are meanwhile close to 35%.

edited 23rd May '17 9:59:08 PM by CaptainCapsase

I really doubt that our chances are that low. I get that a mass extinction could be likely, but what event could possibly kill every single human being out there in the 21st century? Only a truly global epidemy, probably. That study still seems sensationalist.

Yeah, I don't really see a major apocalypse event happening anytime soon, it seems really farfetched for something to wipe out 7.5 BILLION people!

However, some predictions for the future are really bleak. The excellent Future-Timeline.net website, which I posted some of before, is an example. If you thought two thousand sixTEEN was bad wait till you hear what they say about two thousand sixTY... (Warning: May cause sadness, though then again this is a pretty pessimistic thread to begin with, predictions taken from the "2060" section combined with bits from other sections)

"Population, which peaked at 10 billion people in 2055, is now going into decline as millions perish due to war, starvation, environmental disasters, and terrifying new threats like nano-technology terrorism. The global economy is in intense turmoil, beset with problems it is incapable of adressing. Corporations which have survived for decades disappear overnight. Half the world's nations are bankrupt, US national debt is 4 times that of it's GDP. Upward social mobility has become next to impossible.

The world is in a rapidly degrading geopolitical situation, driven by an unending stream of climate refugees, as temperatures have risen by nearly 4 degrees Celsius. Increasing numbers of equatorial countries are being classified as failed states, with collapsed governments and directionless populations. The most destitute regions have become reclassified as "fourth world" countries. Much of Europe, particulary the Mediterranean area, has had martial law and military occupation in many cities, with hardline, nationalist governments coming to power in Italy, Spain, Greece, and more, and much of the continent is in political deadlock over food and water sharing. Cities such as Venice, Barcelona, and Athens are being emptied due to heatwaves, drought, cyclones, and sea level rise. Africa has been almost entirely consumed by desertification, and South Africa is being overrun by refugees from countries like Botswana.

Asia is no better. Bangladesh has been emptied of it's populace, many fleeing to India, which is unable to support this surge. Most of the refugees have to live in vast shanty-towns along the border. Lawless, overcrowded, and with disease spreading rapidly, it has become one of the most dangerous regions in the world. Pakistan has been declared a failed state, with armed gangs seizing the little food and water left. Tens of millions of refugees attempt to leave. China is also in decline as many move northward to more stable climates, and is divided between the coastal areas and eastern plateaus. Many areas in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam have been abandoned due to rising sea levels. The Middle East has been reduced to a wasteland of anarchy, with Turkey being one of the few semi-stable countries left.

North America's situation is pressing as well. The USA is in a disasterous economic system, and large numbers of Americans are moving to Canada, creating a great deal of friction between the two countries, exacerbated by growing violence. A massive flow of immigrants from Central America are entering the US, but due to it's disasterous economy they have to cut off immigration, leaving many displaced. The southwest is one of the most destitute regions in the country, with food and water rationing required permanently, and much of the Gulf Coast, including cities like Houston and New Orleans, has been abandonded. Combined with desparate measures to seal off the country, deep regional and cultural divides have been emerged not seen since the Civil War, and neo-facist, extreme nationalist parties have come to power.

South America is in even worse shape, with the northwest mountainous countries facing collapse through extreme drought. Peru, Bolivia, Venezula, Columbia, and more have degenerated into a set of armed camps. Most refugees move northward, but few make it. Finally, much of the islands in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean have been abandoned, many of the survivors moving to Australia and Papua New Guinea. However this cultural shift has led to hundreds of languages and cultures dying out.

Only a few stable countries are left. Canada, Russia, Iceland, Norway, Finland, Sweden, and Denmark have actually benefitted from climate change, and have become prosperous, while the UK, New Zealand, and Japan have cut themselves off from the mainland and become self-sufficent, while Turkey has escaped the worst of peak oil and sealed itself off from the rest of the Middle East".

Thankfully, the website continues by stating that this major collapse will be reversed in the second half of the century. Still, it's really scary that THIS could be the situation in the future.

Multiple disaster scenarios occurring in sequence, probably as a direct consequence of one another.

For example, severe climate change results in geopolitical instability, leading to a series of great power wars, culminating in a large scale exchange of strategic nuclear and biological weapons.

Such a scenario would result in the collapse of modern human civilization, and leave any remaining populations far more vulnerable to natural extinction events triggered by volcanic activity, high energy celestial events, or collision with an asteroid or comet even if it didn't wipe out the human species on its own.

One shouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, considering that the dinosaurs vanished, too. But then, humans have way more abilities to adapt to different climates and circumstances. Unless the whole world turns into an environment even humans can't survive from one day to another, some of us will always survive.

I know I should just drop the "2016 wasn't the worst" thing, but I can't really. I think that is because as a very optimistic person (I wrote a major essay for my 9th grade class about how the world is getting better), statements like "More bad things in a single year have never happened" or "one of the darkest years in modern times" or "2016 is the tipping point to the collapse of civilzation" as well as the fact the year is listed under Trauma Conga Line (as well as Growing Up Sucks being essentially a complaint about the year, plus it was listed under Darker and Edgier before I deleted it) make me sad, given just how hyperbolic and untrue those are (In my opinion, of course).

edited 24th May '17 6:56:42 AM by WhatArtThee

The absence of evidence for advanced civilizations other than our own in the galactic neighborhood strongly suggests that one or more of the steps on the road to becoming an interstellar civilization more or less capable of enduring until the heat death of the universe is exceedingly unlikely to occur. I find it very unlikely that all of those bottlenecks are in our past; to me it far more plausible that there are multiple moderately large filters rather than a single limiting factor on the proliferation of intelligent life, some in our past, and at least a few in our future.

The risk of human extinction isn't high, but I definitely think it's non-negligible, certainly enough that we can't take the future survival of our species for granted.

edited 24th May '17 7:41:20 AM by CaptainCapsase

I think we don't have nearly ENOUGH information to actually say that any of that is true. We're currently only locked onto one planet, and until such time as we actually find evidence of an alien civilization, all we have is wild speculation. Speculation backed with science, yes, but it's still speculation based on a sample consisting of only ourselves.

It is actually not impossible that through a fluke, humans were the only species close by which managed to adapt well enough to develop that far.

I think we need a new thread. This was fairly specific to 2016, and this conversation is, for obvious reasons, increasingly general.

Agreed