Southeast Asia Thread

A survey of all 10 ASEAN nations about geopolitics issues. While ASEAN was mostly pro-U.S. last year, this year China is edging ahead.

Among the 7 countries with increased pro-China attitude includes most mainland nations except Vietnam and all Islamic nations. The mainland's geographical location gives China an advantage in investment, while the Israel-Palestine conflict soured the U.S.'s relationship with the Islamic nations.

Singapore stays mostly the same, still strong pro-U.S. leanings.

Unsurprisingly, the two nations with increased pro-U.S. leanings are the ones who face the most Chinese aggression in the sea. Also of note is that Israel is Vietnam's second most important weapon exporter, and the Philippines have been fighting Islamist separatists and terrorists.

More elaboration on this part. While all ASEAN countries are sympathetic to the Palestinians, Malaysia and Indonesia are particularly pro-Palestine and anti-Israel, to the point of not having diplomatic relations with Israel at all.

The anti-Israel sentiment has unfortunately led to widespread anti-Semitic sentiments. Many Jews now have to hide their faith or register as Christians for their safety.

The increasing anger at Muslim oppression also led to fears that radical Islamic factions would rise in power.

Oh, somehow I missed this. Last month Australia has become the newest member of the "Vietnam's BFF" club, having their bilateral relation to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Vietnam has been trying to cast a wide net of allies in the past six months, after China started pulling out their water guns.

Vietnam's CSP list includes China, Russia, India, South Korea, USA, Japan, and now Australia.

Pham Minh Chinh and Anthony Albanese talked about rare earth extraction and climate change, which hits South East Asia hard with a heat wave this year.

I've heard that Singapore and Indonesia would be the next goal for CSP upgrade. The maritime border between Vietnam and Indonesia should also be demarcated soon.

CSP?

Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. It is one of Vietnam's 3-tier bilateral ranking.

Comprehensive Partnership is the lowest tier (Obama reached this tier in 2013).

Strategic Partnership is the mid tier (like Philippines currently).

CSP is the highest tier possible. Biden skipped the mid-tier and jumped to this tier in 2023.

Now to figure out how to get ASEAN to present a united front on the South China Sea issue without China using the Cambodia-Laos-Myanmar trio to drive a wedge through the neighbourhood.

On a somewhat related note: Guardian: UN Secretary General António Guterres names former Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop as a special envoy to Myanmar. Bit of a sus choice, given her record on the issue.

China is actually pretty pissed at the junta right now. They've been funding all sides of the conflict as some sort of "stick and carrot" to the junta, particularly to force closing the scam centers.

Vietnamese real estate tycoon Truong My Lan has been sentenced to death for defrauding Saigon Bank for $12 billion.

There were literally tons of evidence against the guy - six tons of papers to be exact.

The state media said that the total damage was $27 billion, which is 6% of Vietnam's GDP.

Uh, I guess for a comparison, it is more than 3 times the money put to the PAVN defense spending (around $8 billion).

She must've had a very large basement.

$12 billion is well over twice the amount stolen in the 1MDB case, by the way. Eat your heart out, Najib.

Shame that Najib's getting a pardon...

Are we sure this was a fair trial? The Vietnamese government doesn't share China's control freak attitude and geopolitical sense of entitlement, but they are still an one party state.

Would agree.

I wouldn't be surprised if the VCP's doing this to distract the public of resignations/people stepping down from the party.

The trial was pretty huge, including 80 defendants total, and had been going on before the President's resignation.

Whether it was fair or not, it clearly isn't a distraction, but one of the main events of the anti-corruption campaign.

Philippines, Japan, and U.S. step up in maritime defense cooperation in the Controversial Sea. Biden said that U.S. support for Philippines is "ironclad." Yeah, I think it's gonna be as ironclad as U.S. support to South Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Ukraine.

Now to be fair, as someone who studies diplomacy, I think USA support in the Philippines will be slightly more iron clad than the other examples because the USA would really rather have the Philippines be a buffer state, and they don't want China to get any advantage over them.

Plus the USA have lots of leverage over current leaders. It's in the USA's best interests to support the Philippines more than Ukraine thanks to all the treaties and history.

Edited by RedHunter543 on Apr 13th 2024 at 1:36:09 AM

Disinformation has started in PH before Marcos even flew to DC to see Biden/Kishida. It's much more intensive.

Myanmar rebels have secured a border town near Thailand that is also a vital trade route. China has also enforced a ceasefire in the area near that town, so the rebels' control of that town is locked-in.

If the rebels can take control of the opium trade in the Golden Triangle, they'll choke out the junta's income.

Also, America won't let the Philippines go because the Philippines are a stationary aircraft carrier for us in the Asia-Pacific region.

History time: here's a neat article on the fast-ripening Champa rice (Oryza sativa aus) and its impact on the population boom in Song China in the 11th century. The cultivar originated in the Indian subcontinent and likely reached the Kingdom of Champa in previous centuries as part of the wider exchange that brought Indian culture and religions to Cham lands.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Lee-Hsien-Loong-to-step-down-as-Singapore-prime-minister-in-May

Singaporean PM Lee Hsien Loong is leaving politics next month. Lawrence Wong is the next PM.

More on rice: Rappler: The Court of Appeals of the Philippines has issued a cease-and-desist order on the commercial distribution of two genetically-modified crops developed by domestic institutes, namely:

• A strain of golden rice developed by the Philippine Rice Research Institute. The strain, built on three decades of international research, features a maize gene that cause it to synthesise betacarotene, which according to the institute allows the rice to "provide at least 30% of the average requirement for vitamin A". Big deal for a country where a significant chunk of the underage population suffers from vitamin A deficiency.

• A strain of Bt eggplant developed by the University of the Philippines Los Banos. The strain had a crystal protein from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis inserted as a biological insecticide, in order to make it resistant to insect pests.