Future World Conflict Zones

Hi all!

I'm doing a story with part of it set in a future war zone, but I can't decide which country/countries it should be in. I know it's hard to predict future areas of conflict, (no one saw Syria coming) but with current data we can see where they might happen. Right now I'm looking at:

The Philippines (islamic revolt expands) Indonesia (extremism and separatism) Myanmar (a continuation of the current conflict) Sri Lanka (Islam vs. Buddhists and a resurrection of Tamil nationalism) India (Either regionalism, a resurging Maoist revolt or a war with China) Botswana (desertification and the fact that their economy is diamond based) Sudan (because its Sudan) A water war of the 'stans in Central Asia The breakup of Pakistan

I read somewhere that Tanzania is on the verge of civil war, but I haven't been able to find anything on it.

Another scenario I'm looking at is the breakup of North Korea due to competing generals and civil war.

Which scenarios are plausible? Are there any other places that could provide an interesting setting for a future war here on earth?

Plausible? Any of em. Likely? Few if any. India vs China is more likely than the Philippines going all civil war.

At present, you're looking either back to the Middle East and North Africa, Eastern Europe (Russian shenanigans are at it again), the Korean Peninsula or the South China Sea/Western Pacific Ocean as most likely.

Of course the ISIS invasion of Iraq is a good throwaway reference as a starting domino.

Really, every society with an oppressed population and an oppressive government (by local standards - this is key) is a powder keg. I'd go ahead and make it the United States, in fact!

We've got enough guns, ammo, and extremists (on both sides!) with itchy trigger fingers here to have a full-blown revolution in the next 10 years or so. Combine that with a federal government that is seen by its own population to be ineffective due to an ever-widening gap between political ideologies (as well as an inability to cooperate that borders on schizophrenic), and an economic system that is largely doomed to fail (look up 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century' by Thomas Piketty, and Hanauer's 'Zillionaire' letter here), and 'The Second Civil War' is not as far-fetched an idea as you'd think.

Oh, and we've also burned through enough goodwill to make international intervention unappealing, though it's unlikely anyone else will put aside their own problems to help. (Russia will have serious political/economic by that point, China's bubble will have become unsustainable, so it'd probably be South America to the rescue!)

Botswana as a conflict zone? Impossible. Yes, Botswana suffers from desertification and a primarily diamond-based economy, but they are one of the most economically and politically sound states in Africa. Compare that to neighboring Zimbabwe, or states like Central African Republic or Democratic Republic of the Congo.

edited 10th Oct '16 10:18:12 AM by arcada188

This article by Foriegn Policy Magazine should interest you.

The most dangerous simmering potential conflict right now is the South China Sea, esp with the potential to draw in the United States. Although realistically I dont expect a shooting war anytime soon, the stakes are high for other nations in the region, and one can easily imagine some trigger happy pilot setting something off.

I could, in extremis, see some of the western and northwestern states becoming problematic. Most of the troublesome areas don't have much in the way of population, though. In the even of serious unrest, I'd expect Canada to chime in, given how close they'd be to the hot zone.