General Middle East & North Africa Thread

Sounds like it should be.

Iran elections: early results show reformists and moderates lead race

Nice. The question is whether said reformists and moderates will be able to get anything done.

Well, the few bits of analysis I've seen, is that it's essentially a vote to the continuation of Rouhani's policies. It's going to be interesting whether they'll get into a direct clash with the Ayatollah if they get a majority in parliament. Even if the Supreme Leader is the actual leader of the country, it would be interesting to see his reaction (and the IRGC's).

EDIT: Iran election: Reformists win all 30 Tehran seats

edited 28th Feb '16 3:52:59 AM by TerminusEst

60% turnout? I like the sound of that - it means that Iran's people think they can make a difference by voting.

I hope the IRGC are sweating.

Moderates and reformists win a majority in both the Parliament and Assembly of Experts.

for the future of Iran.

The Guardian Council still has their veto, don't get too excited about any potential change.

Seeing as the Guardian Council have to have approved all the candidates the Guaridan Council's role in scrutinising laws is unlikely to be massive, in that department it's just like the US Supreme Court, it's the vetting of candidates that's worrisome.

It's still a reason for cautious optimism. For all the "Islamic" part of the Islamic Republic, and the fact that the IRGC needs to be torn out root and branch, Iran is at least trying to be democratic, and the people are making clear that they like the idea of increasing liberalism and warmer relations with the West.

Also, a majority in the Assembly of Experts is probably something worth noting. They are the only control - sort of - on the Supreme Leader so to speak.

Is it okay to talk about the Caucasus countries in this topic? They are considered part of Western Asia along with the Middle East, but are closer culturally and politically to Europe and Central Asia than the Middle East/rest of Western Asia.

edited 29th Feb '16 11:17:10 PM by Bat178

The Caucasus has its own topic I believe.

There is a "Tensions in South Caucasus" thread (Which nobody has posted in for over a year), but no General Caucasus Thread.

edited 29th Feb '16 11:39:43 PM by Bat178

It's a separate area.

It might fit under the Europe thread to be honest, as I've seen definitions of Europe that stretch that far.

@Bat178 - You can necro it and ask the mods to change the title to a general Caucasus thread.

Reuse and recycle when possible.

Will Iran's elections be the end of reform? Ruhanni and his gang are conservative for the most part, they are just not as batshit insane as Achmadinijad and his crowd. None of the genuine reformists, the people who were in the green movement, have been allowed to run.

Dude. We aren't kidding when we say cool it with the doom. Being pessimistic for its own sake and sourcing those who make it a point to see the most negative outcome (and not always for intellectually honest reasons) isn't really a constructive argument.

No.

Good chat.

Yeah. It's not "the end of reform" when the choices on offer are conservative-versus-reactionary.

Would it be better if Iran were forcibly overthrown in a miraculous clean intervention that only removed the Guardian Council, Ayatollah and IRGC while somehow leaving Iran free to choose its own path? Sure (but note that I'm pretty sure that Iran would immediately vote the Guardian Council and Ayatollah back in). Now, back in the real world, Iran's voters have elected people who want to make reforms within the system, to the extent that the Ayatollah and GC will allow them to. It remains to be seen whether reforms will be carried out, but the ball's in the government's court.

I'm personally optimistic. The real rot in Iran is not with the clerics, it's with the IRGC, and I think that the Ayatollah planned the 2013 election in 2009 for the purpose of reining in the Guard. So yeah, we're going to see some helpful reforms, whether or not they're enough for Jack.

Considering the clerics support putting gays that don't submit to conversion therapy to death, I would consider them to be a bit of a rot, though that problem exists in all of Iran's neighbors as well. And further more the choices were indeed between conservatives and reactionaries, as in nobody else was allowed to run. This election is indeed good news, as it keeps things from getting even worse, but Iran is not on the path to "liberalization". It's like if Jeb Bush or Hillary Clinton were elected after a Trump presidency.

The IRGC will be restrained a bit more, and will probably have to give up some of it's controls over the economy, Iran will try to make friends in Europe and various other places, and maybe they will relax a bit with political prisoners and taking westerners hostage. But fundamentally little will have changed.

And no I am not advocating the US overthrow the Ayatollah, if only because of the wave of instability it would unleash across the region.

It's a bit old, but I'm surprised that this hasn't been posted. Haven't seen it in the terrorism or Arab Spring thread either.

Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1 million people

What's sad and ironic about this is that ISIS had previously captured and threatened to destroy the dam some time ago, but was fortunately pushed back. But now, thanks to neglect and a near total lack of resources to repair the dam, it's likely going to collapse once the water levels rise and put additional pressure on the walls.

There are other, smaller dams downstream, but they aren't large or durable enough to stop the torrent of water that'll hit if it breaks. Lots of farms rely upon the river and are right next to it, meaning those crops will be ruined too.

As for the forecasted casualty rates... I think it's an exaggeration, especially since the source is a former Iraqi (albeit one who now teaches in Sweden). Probably not even 100,000 if the government has the decency to warn folks or take precautions. But for the severe damage that the loss of food supplies via farm flooding will do? Hoo boy, now that'll be a real killer over time.

edited 8th Mar '16 4:04:43 AM by SgtRicko

I think it was talked about in the refugee thread. I'm surprised the US didn't try to replace the thing during the occupation. I mean besides it being hazardous, in the long term it will cost more to repair it constantly than to just build a replacement.

It was discussed in the global terrorism thread (but its important enough of an issue to need crossposting). I actually think the forecast is accurate because the dam is upriver from Mosul city, where Daesh refuses to let anyone leave.

Iran fires ballistic missiles, testing U.N. resolution

Time to activate Operation Nitro Zeus....