War in Ukraine

Both.

Sorry, I didn't know much about the Chechnya war except broad generalizations. I was always confused as to why Checnyans were fighting FOR Russia in Ukraine.

edited 30th Aug '14 12:31:34 PM by JackOLantern1337

Chechnya is a real life Game of Thrones - everyone is trying to outplay everyone else or get rich quick, and some warlords have their own private armies.

Yeah, and Putin looks like Roose Bolton. It is known.

I wrote about it somewhere in the depth of this thread. Too lazy to search, though.

To summarize the SCW - fuckload of Russians and lowland clans clean out most of Checnya with big losses, all the Scooby gang - Basaev, Maskhadov - sit in the mountains and occasionally do terracts, Russia resorts to assassinations, doesn't really help, Russian Chechnya president Kadyrov gets spectacularly assassinated (unknown perp), his son gets into power, uses ruse and trickery and wise ruling (if you rule out all those orgies and the occasional assassination) to get practically everyone on his side, eliminates opponents, sends cannon fodder to die in Ukraine (the Battle of Donetsk Airport), disgruntled freedom fighters join Ukrainian battalions to fight Russia.

Ah, and Chechens fought on both sides in the Georgia War.

edited 30th Aug '14 12:43:36 PM by emuran

It is known

Italy's Mogherini and Poland's get top EU jobs. Of special relevance is that Tusk A is Polish, and B spent years as an activist against the former Soviet Union. Not sure exactly how a sitting Prim Minister gets a position int the EU.

edited 30th Aug '14 12:42:57 PM by JackOLantern1337

Good to see Eastern leadership in the EU. Tusk is pretty competent from what I hear. Also began his premiership with a conciliatory policy towards Moscow. One hand giveth?

edited 30th Aug '14 12:47:38 PM by Achaemenid

I take it the EU marginalizes it's Eastern members?

Do bears shit in the woods?

edited 30th Aug '14 12:51:20 PM by LogoP

Not as much as you might think; but their economic situation is rather below that of the Western bloc which can cause problems for them. In addition, the three most populous EU countries are all Western European in outlook and economy. A greater voice for Eastern interests would be good.

Although personally, I would prefer the Intermarium back

edited 30th Aug '14 12:53:28 PM by Achaemenid

Yup.

We should archive today's discussion - a lot of interesting points was brought up.

I am honestly convinced that in the future historians will just discover the past by digging through the internet. Seriously imagine if the ancient Romans had Facebook. And if you go back in this thread there is so much foreshadowing that it isn't even funny.

Someone might find this interesting: Hungarian PM's opinion at the EU meeting today is that sanctioning Russia didn't achieve squat. Believing that it did and that it's going to solve the Ukraine problem is "fooling ourselves". He also says that the only real solutions are force and negotiation, but points out that it's a good thing nobody chose the former.

Related: since my last post, I learned that there might be something true in Russia's accusations of Hungary supplying Ukraine with tanks after all. The tanks in question were sold as part of a tender by the Hungarian military - and all of them were bought by a single group who then shipped those tanks into Ukraine. Whether it was a deliberate act of indirect aid or a coincidence is anyone's guess; my mother in particular thinks it was deliberate but I'm not going to cast a verdict myself for the simple reason that I just don't know.

Regarding public opinion, there was a pro-Ukraine flash mob in front of the Russian embassy at Budapest today, titled "Ukraine is not a colony".

edited 30th Aug '14 1:21:03 PM by amitakartok

I imagine the rest of Europe is nearly fed up with Hungary's pro Russian shenanigans?

Well, the flash mob evidences that the country's public opinion isn't behind the PM in this matter. He can yap all he want, nobody agrees with it; we too were forced to live under Soviet influence for decades (even though we had a much easier time than Ukraine). We don't like the idea of an expansionist Russia any more than Ukraine does and since Ukraine is right next door to us, we too would like if this war could end quickly and without too much violence.

At least I do.

edited 30th Aug '14 1:47:16 PM by amitakartok

Meanwhile odd things are happening in Russia:

• Russian reporters 'attacked at secret soldier burials'
• Reuters — Exclusive: Over 100 Russian soldiers killed in single Ukraine battle - Russian rights activists

NATO establishes new rapid reaction force The British led force will include troops from the Baltic states, Norway,Denmark, and the Netherlands. Canada has also expressed interest in joining. It will contain 10,000 and is supposed to be able to react to a crisis in a few days.

Putin says Russia must strengthen it's military and economic position in the Arctic. Canada will not be pleased.

edited 30th Aug '14 2:55:36 PM by JackOLantern1337

Wouldn't it be best to keep the Russian only related posts and news articles (such as that one about the Arctic) in the Russian thread? I suppose Chechnya is quite different from Ukraine. Just sayin', ignore me if I'm wrong.

Now, about Ukraine. Since my initial prediction of the conflict ending next year (and not this year, like some of you gentlemen here said) is on its way to become true, I would like to ask a huge question: what will be the main consequences, on a long-term:

1) For Ukraine as a whole (both politically and economically);

2) For the triangle between Ukraine, NATO and Russia (that is, militarilly);

3) For the sanctions.

edited 30th Aug '14 2:57:36 PM by Quag15

Agreed.

Honestly, long term I think it'll be status quo ante for the latter two. There just isn't enough political capital to do otherwise.

As to the former, I think it's too early for anyone to tell.

Due to my innate pessimism here is what I think will happen.

Russia will get it's land link to Crimea, ether through a puppet state, or by outright annexing Eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine will try to reform itself but ultimately fail, sliding further and further into economic ruin.

The sanctions will stay in place for a while, but be frequently undermined, my money is on France. Eventually there will be another "reset" and all will go back to it's fucked up normal, the only change being that the Eastern Nato members know that the West doesn't give a single flying fuck about them.

That is indeed overly pessimistic, from Ukraine's perspective. Speaking as a pro-Russian, I would be stunned if Russia somehow took all of the areas claimed by the seperatists as new novorossiya. With the exception of Odessa and Donbass, anti-Russian sentiment is not just a majority, it's the overwhelming majority.

Like I said Russia has dealt with being hated by it's subjects before. And never underestimate the ability of the international community to look the other way when they see something inconvenient. And never underestimate the stupidity of the average American citizen.

Not only that but Russia has Putin, the greatest magnificent bastard living today. The west has Obama, who's an indecisive clown, on the rare occasion he grows a pair Congress forces him to back down, and he has managed to piss off our tyrannical asshole allies, while failing to fully repair our rift with Europe, and runs a foreign policy so incompetent foreigners must wonder if we can even look out for our own self interest let alone that of the world.

France has Holande,who only won because JZ endorsed him in a rap, who presides over a crumbling economy, and a dissatisfied citizenry. Has somehow managed to get into single digit approval ratings at several points.

The UK has David Cameron, an out of touch aristocrat who couldn't even get the go ahead from Parliament to bomb Syria.

The only one who is remotely competent is Merkel, and she needs Russian oil, and is royally pissed of at the US, for spying, and the rest of Europe, for whining about Austarity while begging Germany for more money.

In short, unless their is a whole team of legendary leaders of the free world waiting in the wings then we are well and truly fucked.

edited 30th Aug '14 5:02:25 PM by JackOLantern1337

That hate isn't permanent y'know. If Russia provides services and jobs, that neutral faction will gain more power. Maybe even the pro-faction. Only the ardent nationalists who don't care about practical problems would continue to resist after that, and at least in the south and east, they're not in majority.

Don't underestimate the power of prosperity. Even if its only relative prosperity.

edited 30th Aug '14 5:02:14 PM by FFShinra

Russia can't even provide those things for it's own citizens, let alone potential conquered subjects. Besides never underestimate the power of pride. As far as many will be concerned the Russians came in and took the area by force and nothing will change that.

Now Russia is far from the west in terms of quality of life, but it is also most certainly better than Ukraine, especially Donbass. It is very possible that it could provide more stable public services in Donbass than the Ukrainian government could.

The real question is whether it will be able to provide a stable source of jobs and economic development. If Putin can succeed in reviving the economy there, that would probably secure the Russian position in Donbass. (That, admittedly, is a bit of a longshot)

That of course assumes that Russia even annexes Donbass at all, although at this point I would say that that is certainly Putin's best move.

edited 30th Aug '14 5:23:39 PM by Stripes-the-Zebra