I think we'll see more e-books for sure- but I don't think publishers will ever abandon print books. I would hate to see real books go away.
I think publishers are an intergral part of publishing, and the move towards more and more self published books becoming available through 'proper' retailers is a worrying one.
Publishers employ editors- people who know how a book needs to look when finalised, who will help the author make the book the best it can be, and who know what works. I have a theory about 'big name' authors, in that some of them become too popular for the publishing house to challenge, which is why their later books become somewhat bloated.
Secondly I think we are in danger of being drowned in dross, the good stuff harder and harder to find. What will happen is an acceleration of the problems that have happened since supermarkets started to discount the bestsellers. Supermarkets sell stuff (books, turkeys at Christmas, Known Value Items - the 20 or so staples shoppers know the price of) at no profit, or even a loss, to get people through the door, and then make their money on all the other stuff they buy. Bookshops depend on the bestsellers to make the profit that allows the rest of the shop to survive. Faced with a tide of crap, people will stick to a few known names they know they will enjoy, because you are less and less likely to take a chance, because you are less and less likely to find anything good.
Overlaid on all this is the frightening power of Amazon. There was an article on the BBC site a few months ago- basically if Amazon are not interested, it doesn't get published mainstream. I think we are going to regret Amazon killing high street bookshops. You don't browse Amazon, you buy what you already know you want. You can only read those pages they let you, so you can't get the feeling for an untried author. So more and more people are going to stick with what they know.
In ten years time would Gaiman or Pratchett get published for the first time?
Do the job in front of you.I 101% disagree.
Since njrxll didn't present his counter-argument, I'll quickly say why I agree with him.
First of all, your first point makes the presumption that self-published authors don't hire editors. That's untrue. For the most part, you should be hiring an editor when you self-publish, or at least a proofreader. Editors aren't just traditional, there's for-hire ones for self publishers too.
Second of all, you seriously underestimate both Amazon's and other community's ability to keep Sturgeon's Law in check. If people find that a book is dross, they'll give it some two- or one-star reviews, and the better books will push it to the bottom of the search rank. Thinking about it though, it seems like the bad/good ratio in ratio is more 20/80 than 90/10, with the general trend of professionalism. And that 20% good is quite loud.
Third of all, Amazon might be powerful, but as stated in the article I linked, alternative stores like Smashwords might gain more relevance over time. To a point, it doesn't matter if you're not a pop culture success. If you have thousands or ten of thousands of buyers, you'll be able to profit off of a book.
For the last paragraph, I'm not sure what you're talking about. Why wouldn't Gaiman or Pratchett get published?
edited 3rd Dec '12 4:59:06 AM by chihuahua0
Because it makes for a nice scare tactic to claim they wouldn't, regardless of presenting any evidence for it.
Right now, today at this very moment, there are twelve Prachetts not getting published anyways. It's a statistical certainty based on how the industry works. You want to scaremonger? Don't make me giggle.
edited 3rd Dec '12 6:06:08 AM by Night
Nous restons ici.I don't really know much about the industry, but as a consumer I have to say I'm not having any problems finding books I'll enjoy - it's easier than ever, in fact, and the general variety of what comes to my attention seems to be better as well.
I think the problem isn't that we're inevitably drowning in dross, but the WAYS we find things we like are changing. People who've always been able to just walk into a bookshop and pick up something and enjoy it may be finding that no longer works. People, like me, who always walked into bookshops and found almost everything there unreadable guff are being offered new alternatives, like blog subscription.
Having read the article, it sounds to me like the main problem with the shifts is that in order to be successful, authors will also have to be businessmen, which is a shame because I've always felt that good art and good business are somehow spiritually incompatible. But that could just be the jealousy that I, as a non-businessperson, feel towards those capable of mainstream success.
edited 3rd Dec '12 8:09:19 AM by Kesteven
gloamingbrood.tumblr.com MSPA: The Superpower LotteryHear, hear.
Soon the Cold One took flight, yielded Goddess and field to the victor: The Lord of the Light.Yet, me (and a couple of my writer friends) disagree. There's something appealing about also being a marketer and seller.
Publishing's changing, and those who can wield a versatile skillset will come on top. No longer does "if you build it, they will come" work.
Personally, the idea that the business side of writing interferes with the art side is counter to the career of a full-time author. You might not want to author full-time, but I do.
edited 3rd Dec '12 9:33:26 AM by chihuahua0
It simply means that a professional author who cares about money as much as or more than about their craft, in and of itself, are going to compromise their artistic integrity sooner or later. That's the "spiritual" conflict had in mind, or at least my take on it. This does not necessarily have to result in a lessening of the product's artistic value - but it usually does have exactly that result, unfortunately, in my experience.
Soon the Cold One took flight, yielded Goddess and field to the victor: The Lord of the Light.You do know that kind of thing is largely the product of traditional publishing?
Yes. I'm merely humorously pointing out that in today's publishing standards were they not established authors, they wouldn't get published since they don't cater to that.
"Allah may guide their bullets, but Jesus helps those who aim down the sights."That's a gross exaggeration.
Yet it has an alarming amount of truth to it. Exaggerated yes, but still an alarming amount of truth.
"Allah may guide their bullets, but Jesus helps those who aim down the sights."
Because we writers are awfully untalkative about writing "politics".
Let me link to an article summarizing recent events in the publishing world. The only addition I would make is the whole Harlequin controversy, but that seemed to dropped off the radar.
Basically: What direction do you think publishing is going right now? How will self-publishing do? Traditional? Anything else?