Madness in Mali

@Shinra: The non-AD Tuareg have fallen apart even worse than Bamako.

The statement by Army Gen. Carter Ham is interesting and seems reasonable (the bit about having a similar military force as is operating in Somalia anyway), but I didn't get the bit about negotiation being the best tactic. Negotiate with who? And what could they offer that the occupiers (Boko Haram, AQIM and Ansar Dine) haven't already taken by force? I could only imagine that negotiation becomes feasible to both sides if a combined African Union / Mali Army force has almost totally defeated the Islamists, in which case why not just finish the job off and let Mali's government retake the region?

Folks certainly need to get their shit together if they don't want Mali to become an international terrorist haven. Err, more of an international terrorist haven.

edited 6th Dec '12 5:58:30 AM by betaalpha

Yes, but it's their greivances not being taken into consideration that allowed all this to happen in the first place. And unlike Bamako which seems to want to cut its nose to spite its face with regards to outside powers, the Tuareg would probably react well to being taken seriously, especially if that comes with practical help (I don't mean just militarily, but something to fill the vacuum that came after the end of the G-man's largesse).

If the Islamists are defeated, the more legitimate concerns of the Tuareg can be met in such negotiations so that they don't revolt again and create an opening for a group like AQIM.

edited 6th Dec '12 11:44:50 AM by FFShinra

And the Prime Minister has been arrested by the junta, according to the Associated Press.

[1]

What a terrible mess - my guess is that the junta, being effectively responsible for losing three quarters of the country to militant Islamists, are using their new-found powers to protect themselves from the consequences of their actions, even if they're only making things worse and worse.

I wonder if they'll go to the point of setting up a full-fledged military dictatorship in order to keep themselves from jail or even being acknowledged as the men who carried out this decade's most catastrophic blunder.

edited 11th Dec '12 5:19:38 AM by betaalpha

They can't do even that, having already tried in the beginning and then forced to back-pedal by setting up the transitional government or risk getting bulldozed by ECOWAS and the international community.

Honestly at this point, they should not be taken seriously. If Azawad is a threat to the region, let the region take care of it. Afterwards, whether it goes back to the Bambara or to the Tuareg should be an open question since it's clear the former don't know what they're doing with regards to the north.

The President of Mali has appointed a new Prime Minister

Well, that's not so good.

Okay. I've been trying to follow along with the news, but between all the factions and the talk of ECOWAS and an outside intervention and now the firing of the Prime Minister I am thoroughly confused. The coup d'etat, yes; the breakaway attempts of Azawad, the following internecine conflicts, spillover effects: I'm more than a little overwhelmed, so I'm looking for a fairly in-depth answer of what the world does know. Ready?

All right, ladies and gentlemen. What in hell is going on in Mali?

I may have adapted that from a line in 1776. Regardless, carry on.

Which part, precisely, is confusing you?

By this time I'd just like an overview of the situation. I was exaggerating, but not by much.

Let's see: in the North, the secular Azawad independence movement and the jihadis aren't actively fighting or quarreling, but they've shown rhetorical differences that haven't come to much yet. Little news comes out of there so far, though I'm curious.

In the south, the firing of the PM is what really confuses me. The PM was part of the unity government announced by the junta a few months back, right? So do we have any read on who ordered the arrest and why? Who benefits, which factions, what's happening?

Yes, the PM (former NASA scientist and head of Microsoft Africa BTW, for trivia purposes) was part of the unity government. And from what I read from the Reuters report, Capt. Sanogo called for the arrest, though it seems the PM's plane (he had been about to depart to France) was stopped by an ultranationalist/pro-junta civilian militia that blocked the runway (I'll edit this post with the name when I find it again), so it's unclear whether he ordered it through the rank and file or through allies among the civil populace or both.

As to who benefits, the Islamists up north benefit simply because the chaos in Bamako has put the brakes on/slowed down the international community's plans to intervene in the conflict (the PM, it seems, had just recently accepted the intervention plan, which had been the impetus for his dismissal for reasons I'll explain in a sec) because they no longer have a local partner. The ultranationalists/putschists benefit because while they want to keep Mali united and under Bamako's authority, they're also highly xenophobic and fear that an international intervention would not only sweep out the Islamists, but also the junta (since the latter has no support in the region and Mali under the previous regime was better in every way). As such, any slow down on interventionists plans helps the Malian Army politically, even if it only delays solving the problem.

That help?

EDIT-

The militia in question is the Yerewoloton, which was the same group that some months back beat up the interim president, Dioncounda Traore who, while still president, is currently recovering from his injuries in France.

edited 12th Dec '12 1:16:31 AM by FFShinra

[1]

Security Council has approved intervention with the caveat that they're properly trained and that all political options are exhausted first. No cap given to the size of the new force either, but they only have authorization for a year.

edited 20th Dec '12 4:42:00 PM by FFShinra

The cynic in me suspects that Ansar Dine will be using that "exhaust political solutions" caveat to string along the UN while they do their thing. The Quran says it's perfectly fine to lie to infidels, and what is diplomacy other than polite (well, okay, sometimes not so polite) lies?

And I can't see what offer would be remotely of interest to Ansar Dine that isn't "Let us continue to rule this land forever". They and other Islamic groups control the biggest cities in northern Mali. Why would they settle for anything less? You could try something like asking them to withdraw in return for enforcing Shariah law in the country, but (ignoring just how unacceptable that would be for the Mali government) I don't think they'd take even that because I think what they really want is to rule the country and use it as a platform for more conquest and power. Is there something I'm missing?

EDIT: Though it does say in the article (past a sickening bit mentioning the group recruiting child soldiers) that some of Ansar Dine's members are Mali nationals who could lose their land in the event of military action. That might help out. I fear the best resolution would then be a reduced war with the foreign / more extreme elements and a Northern Mali with a very rigid version of Shariah law that officially turns back any progress places like Timbuktu have made with women's rights and acceptance of other religions.

edited 20th Dec '12 6:06:02 PM by betaalpha

I don't think there is a political solution even if Ansar Dine played nice (which, I agree, they have no reason to). Maybe if the UN undermined them in favor of secular Tuaregs, maybe, but otherwise they really need to just try conquering them.

Then again, for all the naivety around "finding a political solution", it may just be cover for the UN/AU/ECOWAS to train a force big enough to take them on without having to rely on the xenophobic and broken Malian Army.....

Are there any more moderate Muslim groups present?

The secular Tuaregs and the Bambara (people of southern Mali) are, but they obviously back their own factions....

Which are?

this page mentions talks between the Mali government and two rebel groups (last paragraph but one) with the intention of exchanging autonomy with driving Al-Qaeda linked groups out.

edited 22nd Dec '12 12:10:36 AM by betaalpha

All the other factions that are not the Ansar Dine.....

Nice article. I think those giving the autonomy carrot to the Tuareg would be better off if they had concrete proposals. Autonomy could mean anything, especially in a historically lawless region such as the sahel....

edited 22nd Dec '12 12:52:10 AM by FFShinra

Bosco's read on things. The UN's planned intervention, it seems, will be designed to at least try to reimpose discipline on the Mali armed forces, even as it's designed to try to get the rebels back.

Ansar Dine is destroying historic sites again. Mausoleums of important figures in Islam are being levelled because "Allah doesn't like" them.

And, coincidentally, it generates headlines when things get quiet. Kinda like a toddler that whacks its toys when it's not getting the attention it craves.

Bet they won't destroy the whole lot for years, or until the press start to lose interest. Then they'll start on the texts. Frankly, I don't care. Because they want us to.

I hope this earns more ire from the locals. Won't it?