Canadian Politics

I could believe Rob Ford at least kind of cared about Toronto, even if his approach was terrible. I can not believe that Doug Ford cares about Ontario.

New polls show that Conservatives' previous double-digit lead has narrowed to about 4%. A few even have the NDP puling ahead to effectively tie the race up.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ontario-election-polltracker-1.4672850

Conservatives are still in comfortable majority ranges, but the NDP is within striking distance of throwing Ford into a Minority government.

I could see what's left of the Liberal support base flipping towards the NDP in order to hobble Ford to. Point is, its no longer looking like Ford will win in a landslide.

edited 22nd May '18 12:56:03 PM by Rationalinsanity

And here we see the worth of a more-than-two-parties system.

That said, some polls still give Ford an edge, the Liberals might have reach their floor, and the NDP need to take Conservative support (easier said than done) to have a prayer of forming even a weak Minority.

I think Ford is still likely to win, but if the trends continue and the polls are accurate, he'll hopefully be limited to a Minority and a few years in power. Winning re-election is difficult when your entire platform is nothing but promises that completely contradict each other.

Of course, we're also still seeing the effects of a "first past the goalpost" system too. But I guess you're right, silver lining?

I know nothing of the Ontario PC members, but are they likely to turn on Ford if his leadership has made their comfortable advance melt and he only gets a minority?

edited 22nd May '18 1:57:31 PM by Ghilz

I think a move to depose him is likely if he manages to lose (the PC upper ranks didn't want him there, neither did the majority of voters who showed up), but they'll probably keep him in place if they win a Minority to avoid the chaos of a leadership race when they have a 2 year window (if they are lucky) to actually get shit done.

If one of his scandals starts burning, all bets are off.

A recording of Doug Ford giving away bogus PC party memberships (they aren't free, can't be paid for by others, and he said that parts of the paperwork could be left blank) has been released. Ford downplayed but did not deny it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-pc-memberships-audio-recording-kinga-surma-1.4675893

It looks like the NDP's gains started with the NDP getting the attention of "anyone but Wynne" voters, and when Liberals voters saw Wynne had no chance, some of them started jumping ship to the NDP.

The two most recent polls had the Conservatives at 34%, which is not majority territory; however, the polls vary widely in estimating the Liberals' support.

I voted by advance ballot today, for Joel Harden (Ottawa Centre). His lawn signs are everywhere here.

edited 26th May '18 11:19:26 AM by Galadriel

The NDP need at least a 4% lead over the Tories (current tracking has them about tied), and solid turnout across the province (particularly among Liberal hold outs who are willing to vote for them to keep Ford out), if they have any chance of forming even a minority.

Man, the Conservatives should be kicking themselves for allowing Ford to get in over Elliot. They'd have had an easy time dominating the entire province (maybe 90 seats, with a few dozen NDP ML As as a token Opposition), and now they are trending downwards in almost every poll. All because they went with the loud populist over the professional.

edited 26th May '18 12:32:16 PM by Rationalinsanity

I'd have assume it'd have been the "Anyone but Ford" voters.

Since I'd assume someone who is "Anyone but Wynne" would just back Ford, who was leading anyway.

"Anyone but Ford" voters would go NDP now, but so would "Anyone but Wynne" voters who were only considering Ford on the basis that he wasn't Wynne.

I think there are plenty of people who want the Ontario Liberals out but aren't particularly conservative and would prefer not to vote for Ford. Now that it's a 2-way race between the NDP and Conservatives (rather than a mainly a race between the Conservatives and Liberals), those people would be moving to the NDP.

I think the Conservatives' vote share is at least as important as the size of the NDP lead. The last two polls have the Conservatives at 34%, and it would be very unusual for them to get a majority with that level of support, no matter how well-distributed their votes are.

edited 27th May '18 11:56:03 AM by Galadriel

I was going by the CBC polling averager, which has them tied at about 36%.

Also, if the Liberals are totally wiped out (and unless a few Liberal ML As are personally popular enough to overcome Wynne and 16 years of baggage, that's a real possibility), a minority government can't happen. One party will form a majority (barring an unprecedented surge by the Greens), and in a close race or a tie, that's going to be the Conservatives. Even if the Liberals are "only" reduced to singe digits in seats, that's very little room for a minority scenario.

The Tory vote share needs to shift, and in the right places, to the NDP by a decent amount if they have a chance. Could that happen? Who knows at this point...

edited 27th May '18 12:35:40 PM by Rationalinsanity

So Wynne opening the last debate with basically going "Sorry, not Sorry" is a bold move. Though I suppose when you're trailing as far back as her, any bold move seems like the right move.

Some news

A nanos country-wide poll shows the Conservatives polling ahead of the Liberals at the federal level.

And in a move that's not likely to help with that, Bill Morneau and Trudeau announced a plan to buy the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Kinder Morgan for 4.5 Billions. The plan would be to then finish it (An additional expense of 7.4 billion) and then re-sell it. Alberta Premier Rachel Notley saluted the decision, while BC's PM confirmed that they'd not stop their opposition to the pipeline.

I'm rather flabbergasted by this, honestly. Even Harper, whom people like to call a stooge for Oil companies, never sank to this level of investing public funds in this. Any claim Trudeau makes of being environmentally friendly are basically dead at this point, when he's willing to sink 12 billion of federal funds in a pipeline.

They're flat-out giving away a vast sum of public money to an oil company. It's ludicrous.

There is such a long, long list of valuable, life-saving things that could be done with $4.5 billion.

12 Billions. There's an additional 7.4 to finish the Pipeline. They aren't even buying a completed pipeline!

Considering the pipeline's general level of support (rather high, hell its even nearly split in BC), and the need for short/medium-term revenue, this was probably Trudeau's least bad option out of a bunch of bad ones on this files, politically speaking.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trans-mountain-pipeline-analysis-1.4682409

Taking a stand on this subject was probably out of the question, for any government.

edited 31st May '18 12:09:20 AM by Rationalinsanity

This is a really bad idea, and I support the pipeline. Didn't we learn government intervention in the oil industry doesn't work in the 80s? And who would even buy it after it was complete? I don't see companies lining up for it. Not to mention the billions of dollars that could go towards other infrastructure projects rather than this.

Well, obviously the money could go to other things, that's why many people elected Trudeau's party, to make sure that, in such a case, funds would be directed to other non oil-related projects. Between this and no electoral reform, that's a bunch of constituents lost.

Is there a reason that Canada doesn't form coalition governments and just goes for minorities?

It sounds like the direct state intervention is planned to be temporary, they want to sell it off to another company if they can. Whether that works out or not remains to be seen.

The other option was letting it fail or become constantly delayed, pitting two provinces at each other's throats, and Ottawa's.

Electoral reform was never going to happen without a 3-way consensus, otherwise Trudeau would be accused of election rigging. And since each of the parties in question favors a different model, that probably wasn't going to happen.

Oh, and we're definitely in a trade war with the US now. Trudeau and/or Cabinet should be speaking on it today. Hopefully we tariff everything we can, with prejudice. It will hurt and drive up prices, but the world needs to pressure the US back into reality.

edited 31st May '18 10:31:03 AM by Rationalinsanity

Isn't it deceiving to center a part of your campaign on a promise you know is never going to be fulfilled? Yeah, I know it's politics, but Trudeau was the one who made a big deal out of it, he now needs to face the heat.

I think he underestimated just how hard it would, and will have to answer for that.

The reason his government is having issues with productivity is because he unchained the Senate, and they've delayed a lot of his bills. If it happens, an apolitical Senate is a slow process. That will be immediately halted and reversed if Trudeau loses the next election mind you.

The parties are too different from each other to agree to form coalitions on the federal level. Also, I don't think the people like coalitions; the last time a coalition was threatened against the minority Conservatives they just dissolved the government, called for an election, and won a majority.

edited 31st May '18 11:13:38 AM by PhiSat

Until recently, coalitions involved bring the Bloc Quebecois into the equation, which is a non-starter. The Conservatives don't have any ideological partners, and the Liberals/NDP have never hit a sweet spot where they could team up, its either been a Liberal or Conservative controlled Ho C, with the NDP propping up Liberal minorities.