Canadian Politics

You're right, I just didn't feel like writting a complete essay on the nuance of abortions stances from my phone and decided to just raise a specific argument that I was aware of.

Do you prefer Mulcair, Harper, or Trudeau, Eowyn?

I support Mulcair. I've been a supporter of the NDP for as long as I've paid attention to politics. I don't agree with them on abortion, but I don't see abortion policies in Canada changing regardless of who's elected (even Harper regards it as electoral poison and muzzles any of his backbenchers who try to bring up the subject) and I agree with the NDP on most other things, especially the need to reduce poverty and inequality.

Justin Trudeau seems like a decent enough guy (and easy on the eyes), but he had next to no background in policy or politics before joining the Liberals as an MP, and I get the sense he's at least partly doing this out of a sense of obligation to his father's legacy. I saw him on the Rick Mercer Report years ago when he was a teacher, and he said then that he never wanted to get involved in national politics. It feels like he's running on looks, a name, and a few policies picked to get attention and look hip (e.g., marijuana legalization), without any coherent vision. And the Liberals absolutely gutted the Canadian foreign aid program under Chrétien, which is something that matters a great deal to me - ours used to be one of the most admired ones in the world, on a level with the Scandinavian countries, and now - thanks to both Chrétien and Harper - it's pretty much the worst of any developed country.

Harper's just a blight on the Canadian political landscape. He's completely turned people off politics with his endless political attacks and never-ending campaign mode; he's undermined the effectiveness of Statistics Canada - you can't make good policy without good data, and I think he's undermined them for precisely that reason, because he doesn't want government to be effective; he outright committed election fraud on a level worthy of Rove, with the Conservative Party giving voters wrong information so that they wouldn't go vote; and he silences and fires and launches personal attacks at anyone in the civil service who disagrees with him. I desperately hope we can get rid of him in next year's election.

I'd be okay with a Liberal-NDP coalition, but preferably with the NDP as the larger party and Mulcair as PM.

edited 19th Sep '14 2:03:13 PM by WarriorEowyn

What about its stance on Israel?

How was it like for you when Layton took the NDP to Official Opposition stratus?

Do you believe the NDP will return to its third party slump after next election?

How about the NDP staying as opposition, but the Liberals as the government and the Conservatives as the third party?

edited 19th Sep '14 2:05:56 PM by Sledgesaul

I'm downright pissed at Mulcair for being so mealy-mouthed on the mistreatment of Palestinians. I've been to Palestine twice, I've talked to people working for peace on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. I've seen Palestinian homes and wells demolished by Israelis who wanted to drive them from their homes so that they could replace them with settlements. I've seen the Wall cutting right through the heart of Bethlehem. I've talked to people who work in Hebron, walking to school with Palestinian kids to try to dissuade settlers from throwing rocks at the children. I've seen, in the two years between my trips, how rapidly the settlements have expanded, how Israel has been trying to fragment East Jerusalem and the West Bank into every-smaller pieces to allow increasing annexations of Palestinian territory; I've got a blog post discussing that issue in particular here: http://ordinary-gentlemen.com/blog/2014/09/03/what-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict-is-really-about.

While I'd like to see a two-state solution, I think the Israelis have made that impossible with the extent of their settlement expansion, and Israeli actions indicate that they don't even want a two-state solution. So drop the issue, and give Palestinians the vote. Israel already controls everything about their lives; they should be able to vote for the real government, not the puppet one. Have one state. The Israelis have made their bed, let them lie in it.

I think this is the moral issue of our time, on a level with (and similar in many ways to) apartheid, and I hate that Mulcair's being so cowardly on it. I wish we still had Jack, who wasn't afraid to take moral positions on controversial issues. But it's better than the full-throated and unquestioning support that the other two parties are giving to Israel.

(On your other questions: I was delighted when the NDP became the official opposition, and they've been far more effective at opposing and calling out the Conservatives than the Liberals were. I think they can maintain their strong position, but it will depend on how effectively they wage the election how well Mulcair and others can elucidate NDP policies and defend against Harper's attacks, how effectively Mulcair navigates differences between NDP supporters in Quebec and in other provinces, and whether Justin Trudeau can effect some degree of Liberal resurgence in Quebec [I think and hope the Bloc's down for the count].)

We're not competing in the next election to be the official opposition. We want to govern.

edited 19th Sep '14 2:16:20 PM by WarriorEowyn

Just about the one thing I've seen nearly every Canadian say is that they hope the Bloc Québécois is out for good. I know the Parti Quebecois similarly got stomped.

Most of the Canadians I've talked to seem convinced Harper will win because of Trudeau and Mulcair butting heads so much, although Harper could go back to having a minority.

edited 19th Sep '14 2:21:32 PM by Sledgesaul

Justin Trudeau seems like a decent enough guy (and easy on the eyes), but he had next to no background in policy or politics before joining the Liberals as an MP.

Granted, the same attack could be levied at Harper, who was younger when he first became party leader.

If Mulcair doesn't start recovering the polls fast (we could be looking at a early election in the spring, especially if the Tories balance the budget), Layton's gains are all but doomed.

edited 19th Sep '14 2:32:50 PM by Rationalinsanity

Justin's had, I think, a much shorter career in politics than Harper had before he became PM. It's just been such a fast rise - from a few years as a backbench MP to party leader - that I'm not confident he's prepared, and he hasn't demonstrated a clear vision for what he would want to achieve in government. The Liberals have tended to try to be an "all things to all people" type of party, and though that can serve them well when in power, it leaves them somewhat rootless now that they're a third party.

EDIT: As regards polls, provinces and ridings matter far more than national numbers. The NDP is still leading in Québec, and that's where many of their seats are. There are seats in Ontario and in the West that they'll never lose.

What we can't afford to do is split the vote between Liberals and NDP and let the Conservatives get another majority.

edited 19th Sep '14 2:43:56 PM by WarriorEowyn

Trudeau is moving to the left in a lot of issues, but his support for Israel annoys the fuck outta me. Same with Mulcair; Harper is expected because he's desperately trying to emulate the GOP.

Trudeau is moving to the left in areas where Mulcair is going right, and it's gonna cost the NDP. To be fair, though, if the Bloc is gone for good, then the Tories, Liberals, and NDP would firmly solidify as the go-to Power Trio for Canada, doubly so if Mulcair stays in opposition, becomes a kingmaker, or wins an election.

Oh, and are the provincial Progressive Conservatives at all aligned with Harper's conservatives?

edited 19th Sep '14 3:02:57 PM by Sledgesaul

That depends on where you are. In Atlantic Canada there is a very clear difference between the two; and Conservative leaders generally don't appear alongside Harper during provincial elections. I know Bailey (who brought the Tories back into Opposition in Nova Scotia) never appeared or even mentioned Harper during the race.

I also know a lot of die hard Tories in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland that won't so much as consider voting for the federal Conservatives post merger.

As for vote splitting; the thing is that there are very few truly competitive three way races during the Federal election. Usually one party is relegated into third place in most areas, and they have no chance of beating the other two.

A lot of the latter and a little bit of the former. The federal Tories are considered too socially conservative, a little crazy on the economy and far to Western orientated in general. A lot of us in the east see them as the Reform party wearing the deceased Progressive Conservative party's skin.

edited 19th Sep '14 3:10:17 PM by Rationalinsanity

Is it because Harper is toxin or because some of the ProCons are actual progressives?

edited 19th Sep '14 3:11:30 PM by Sledgesaul

I know the Alberta Procons are basically Harperites. Ontario Procons as well.

Which of the provincial Procons are actual progressives, and how progressive are they?

From my knowledge, very few of them are truly progressive in the usual sense of the word. They are centre-right to the core for the most part, just not as far to the right as the feds.

The Tories out east are pretty normal for the most part... the Nova Scotia Progress Conservative party screws us every time; just like the NDP and the Liberals (though they have a tiny grace period, having just gotten into government for the first time since the 90s).

http://thechronicleherald.ca/editorial-cartoon/2014-09-19-editorial-cartoon#.VByepFNNHEw.facebook

NDP forced a debate in dead women.

An election is underway in New Brunswick. It currently has a Conservative government led by Neo-Harperite David Alward. I suspect the Liberals will win.

Mulcair is also challenging Harper himself in Iraq, calling it dangerous to involve the nation in Iraq again. He's forcing the Conservatives to answer questions on why they should get involved. Harper's staying silent and will not hold a vote on Iraq.

Could it be that Trudeau becomes PM with Mulcair as Opposition Leader?

Progressive Conservative is literally an oxymoron. A conservative is someone who wants to slow down and consider all the options first while a progressive is someone who wants to charge into the future right now. You can't be both.

And they're mostly Conservative, yup. The only real progressive party is... Well, nobody, really.

Once again a tight race between libs and cons in NB. As much as I like the NDP I sometimes wonder if it wouldn't be better for us lefties to merge. Every close race currently would be a landslide if even half the NDP voters showed up.

Lieutenant-Governor Elizabeth Dowdeswell of Ontario has been sworn in. And it was pretty snazzy, too: she went from the ROM to the Ontario Provincial Parliament in a horse-drawn carriage escorted by policemen on horseback and cavalrymen!

Liberals won a majority in New Brunswick, of course.

Whar has to happen for Harper to finally lose?

Something really nasty coming out in the Duffy trial would help, and that's set for April. And his numbers need to recover if he's going to retain his majority anyway, which he might be able to do with a balanced budget/lots of pandering tax cuts.

Beyond that; more scandals and an inability to regain the public's trust could cost him his job.

Is Harper likely to lose, retain his majority, or get another minority?

Heated Mideast argument erupts.

I'd say there's a decent chance for him to lose, and minimal chance of retaining his majority without a significant shift in the political winds.

Classic Tory deflection move there.

edited 24th Sep '14 2:14:57 PM by Rationalinsanity

Mulcair's silence on Palestine was infuriating, but it's nice to see he defended that anti-IDF fundraiser by keeping the topic to Iraq and calling the Tories out for the deflection.

Who will you vote for in the election?