China Versus Russia

Seeing as discussion of big nasty wars with China has been tabled, who says it has to be about the US?

This thread is exactly what it says on the tin; war between China and Russia. I'm more interested in the theory of how it would play out, both now and likely consequences in the future, but if people can see a way it might happen in the future, and the political atmosphere needed to create it, go ahead.

Well I guess I can start by saying that the Chinese hold a lot of resentment against the Soviets since the Sino-Soviet split and there's also the issue of Mongolia. It's widely seen that the separatism in outer Mongolian and the independence of inner Mongolia is solely the result of Soviet meddling. Interestingly though, I haven't seen any body in China actually care about getting back inner Mongolia compared to say Taiwan. However, they'd love to stick it to Russia.

Ok.

(Notes on board, "Historical differences".)

What else could start a war?

edited 17th Aug '11 11:00:20 AM by GameChainsaw

There's historical precedent with the Sino-Soviet border clashes, which iirc were quite bloody.

Well during the split, Russia and China fought over allies a lot in a sort of repeat Cold War there. For instance, when the Vietnamese communists finally beat the Americans out of their country, they sided with the Soviets. In response, China/Russia fought first a proxy war via Cambodia (with our best friend Pol Pot) and Vietnam backed by Soviets. After Pol Pot turned out to be a crazy psychopath, China took it upon themselves to just invade Vietnam directly. That also failed.

So, if say Russia/China were to rise in power at the same time, they might try to gain allies again to box the other in. I'm not sure how well that would work since most Asian countries can stand on their own now without any assistance. It depends on how extreme the two take it, like if they presented the relationship as an exclusive-or... you either trade with Russia or you trade with China but not both. That would set up another tense situation.

The big issue of Russia/China fighting one another is that they have to do it through some pretty worthless land (in terms of arability) and it's also cold and harsh. One or the other side has to blitz through a lot of territory in order to get to important targets. So I don't really feel anybody has any chance of a quick victory.

I also tend to think the Great Wall might not be too useful in this war. :)

(Writes up on board; Sphere of Influence.)

I have to say, both sides would either have to fight through the Mongolian Steppe (Russia) or the Siberian wastes (China) to actually get to the others centre. However, doesn't Russia have a position to launch themselves down Chinas north-eastern coastline? Most of Chinas heavy industry is coastal. It could give Russia a quick victory.

As for another point of contention...

(Writes up on board; untapped resources)

Don't both Siberia and Mongolia have a great deal of untapped wealth? I know the Mongolians in Inner Mongolia have been suffering due to Chinese economic exploitation of their areas.

As of now the both have an Enemy Mine in the form the United States seem to speak as one voice, such as on issues in Libya and Syria. They hate each other, but it seems they hate the US more. That's why the formed the SCO.

Right now... I would bet on China. Russia has a slight tech advantage, but they just can't beat the numbers. US vs. China is easy because the ocean and incredibly superior USN answers the question for you. Unfortunately for Russia, they don't have that beautiful buffer, the Pacific Ocean.

Although money says Russia ends up nuking China, and then everything goes to hell...

The Chinese could just send 100 million people the the Russian Far East and that area would effectively be Chinese.

I dunno, the Russians have a lot of war experience. For all their shiny new guns, the Chinese army is comparitively untested in the modern era. They haven't seen combat for a while.

The Russian Army has only fought three even marginally major conflicts in the past 120 years: World War Two, Afghanistan, and the war with Georgia in '08. They're no better off than China is.

Edit: Actually, four. The 1905 war with Japan. You could also include, if you wanted, the Xinjiang War and Hungarian Revolution, I suppose...

Edit edit: The only reason I include the war with Georgia is that it's the only modern conflict they've had.

edited 17th Aug '11 1:16:22 PM by USAF713

True. And I hear the Chinese have been investing a lot in training recently.

Nothing beats the real thing.

True. But when its all you've got, the side with the best training tends to win.

Reminds me, I wnat to discuss something regarding training versus equipment, but its for the military thread.

All the training and gear don't count for shit if you don't have the will to win.

Well will to win would depend on the context of how the war started.

Generally speaking, I would say that equipment/training that the Russians and Chinese are fairly closely matched. The differences are too small for me to say anybody is *far* superior to the other or anything. However, the Russians beaming down the coastline doesn't help much. The logistics still kills them. So they go in, try to take the cities, maybe or maybe not succeed and then what? They'll run out of ammo and food and other supplies while trying to battle la resistance in the area, and still have to face the actual Chinese military.

Similarly for the Chinese, they can take the eastern areas of Russia but they're sparsely populated for a reason. It'd take China forever and a half to get to the rich western areas and they'd need Gheghis Khan to lead them like last time.

I would say the situation is also stacked to Russia's favor unless we arbitrarily suggest no one would interfere, because the US would take the opportunity to get the thorn (China) out of its side while it could.

It wouldn't invade, but the USN sitting offshore fucking your shit up is bad enough, and we'd finance the Russians...

Who would win? Everyone else I think .

But seriously? I don't know, it would probably end up with the Majority of the western powers backing China (as they rely on it far more than Russia) and then just waiting for the dust to settle before putting the boot into the loser.

I disagree, because you assume we want to rely on China. I think we'd take the opportunity to eliminate the threat while we could...

Or...

Europe would back China while the US backs Russia. The political fallout afterward would be... immense...

You wouldn't want to back a country that makes all of your stuff?

If you haven't noticed, China only makes all our stuff because we blundered the economics. We are capable of making all our stuff, we just have to force the corporations—who, plainly, I don't care about—to quit fucking us over, or, if necessary, nationalize them and then break them into little pieces that can't go running to the cheap labor.

At the very least, we can have it be India that we rely on, rather than China. They're a much better bet, in that regard...

If there was a war RIGHT NOW between China and Russia? I would bet good money that the USA would back China. In fact I bet most countries would back China.

No, not with Obama in power. Historically, yeah, Russia is our enemy, but China is the much bigger long-term threat...

Dude, everyone would back China.

I don't think you'd mess with the #1 employer worldwide.

I noticed we haven't mentioned nuclear weapons yet...