Taiwan's Independence

Hm? No, you're right. A hypothetical war (which would never happen) would go nuclear. You have to expect a US win eventually, but at such a horrific cost as to make such a war impossible. Any politician with a brain can figure that out. I'm just wondering whether or not Russia would risk anything for China.

That's what I'm concerned about. Which countries will come in to aid Taiwan? If China invades Taiwan the way Russia invaded Georgia, with a traditional invasion (no superweapons), then other nations may complain, but not necessarily risk another big war.

Spit. Maybe.

edited 8th Feb '12 5:26:10 PM by Natasel

Ah.

Good point. I hadn't thought of that. I'm not sure I would support a US war against China. The fallout would be so massive...we'd have to be facing invasion, not just protecting an ally.

Military people (or just knowledgeable people), are we at MAD levels with China?

Pretty sure China has a few nukes aimed at the USA so it seems fair.

China doesn't have enough for MAD, actually.

edited 8th Feb '12 5:30:26 PM by Erock

100% Sure about that?

So realistically, an invasion of Taiwan wouldn't be stopped by the US. Not until we come up with a way to stop an ICBM (which I suspect China has plenty of) once it's been launched.

Maybe we could fund a pawn. Use South Korea, or militarize Japan.

That's a bad future. I hope the PRC either stays sane or collapses.

@Erock: They don't? That's a relief.

edited 8th Feb '12 5:34:30 PM by Ultrayellow

We can learn a lot from Korea and Vietnam wars to see what would happen.

China reforming like Taiwan did is indeed the best option.

They have... 300-400. Which sounds like a lot until you figure in failure rate and missile defences. Tom's figure is 1/3 sucess rate, so 100 nukes isn't quite MAD.

Also, the US government is prepared to keep operating in such a situation, while the PRC is both incompetent and lacks the preperations (I'm assuming).

Yep.

edited 8th Feb '12 5:38:54 PM by Erock

Hey, as long as trade flows, armies don't march and nukes don't fly, its all good right?

Well of course it's the best option.

But a pawn war (and Korea and Vietnam were a lot less justified than defending Taiwan would be) is definitely a better option (IMO) than MAD or just standing by.

Edit: 100 successful nukes is plenty. That's it for most of the country's cities. I don't think anyone, even the most insane of our Republican politicians, would be willing to let that happen. Not if there were other options.

edited 8th Feb '12 5:39:38 PM by Ultrayellow

Korea was pretty damn justified.

Korea was justified (it was defending against a hostile invasion too), it just fell apart. It wasn't that well handled, IIRC. Vietnam wasn't justified.

It was handeled fine, the PRC was just a dick. Seriously, if it wasn't for China's meddling, Korea would be peaceful and united today.

edited 8th Feb '12 5:43:32 PM by Erock

Nah, MAD is not that great actually.

For some reason, the threat of Mutually Assured Destruction seem to strain relationships between two nations.

Better than all out war of course, but it gets kinda awkward to talk about trade ties with the thought of atomic death ever present.

Kinda like USA and Russia. Damn chilly during the Cold War.

It didn't really fall apart. It's just that the South Korean side expanded its goals and couldn't achieve it. When North Korea was overrun, China intervened and pushed the war to stalemate.

If something like this happens to Cross-Strait and Taiwan retaliates with an invasion, then there wouldn't be anyone else to intervene.

Back a bit, china would have few allies. Russia is possible, and the most threatening. Burm/myanmar is possible, though with current reforms, by no means assured. North Korea, of course, but they're only going to be useful against South Korea, and perhaps Cannon Fodder elsewhere. There are some african states that MIGHT, just might, support them. Iran likely would as well. Then the South American wackjobs in Venezuela and Cuba, but only if they're feeling especially Stupid/Suicidal/Brave. Argentina is possible if they get aggressive over the Falklands and England is involved.

Sounds too much like World War 3.

Would be much more expedient to just throw Taiwan under the bus like WW 2 Poland.

Taiwan to China as Poland to USSR.

Not a pretty way to end things.

edited 8th Feb '12 5:51:12 PM by Natasel

Thats what we were disscussing. In a WW3 scenario, Assuming Taiwan had American backing(and, thus, NATO backing), who would help China?

In a conventional war, they would be utterly FUCKED. Nuclear weapons make it a big mess and we have no idea what would happen. Even going by treaties, Russia maintains the right to use nuclear weapons against conventional forces, though China has said "No first use".

edited 8th Feb '12 5:56:49 PM by Joesolo

China won't try direct confrontation.

Even if China "wins" the prize (Taiwan) will probably end up flattened, nukes or no nukes.

Its going to try and undermine Taiwan's Independce with the most handy tool in its kit right now.

Money.

I don't know about that. China can blockade Taiwan and threaten it with a standing military force and minimize actual attacks.

Blockade?

I was thinking more along the lines of Favored Trading Province Status, 100years of tax free privilages, or One Country ( X number ) Systems!

Seriously, Taiwan's an island. Its got nice beaches and all, but its main attraction is that its rich, prosperous place with a well educated people and 1st World class facilities and living standards.

Treating it like the USA treats Cuba will not help.

If only the Republic of China replace the communists pretenders in the mainland, perhaps China would have been seen in "better" light. Their "civil war" technically haven't ended since all Chiang Kai Shek did was leave the mainland and go to Formosa (Taiwan), they didn't "lose" (like the Republicans in Spain) or "surrender" (like the Confederates in the US).

With outside support for taiwan, a Chinese blockade would fail horribly. U.S. submarines would destroy them completely.

edited 8th Feb '12 6:19:43 PM by Joesolo