Pakistan arrests five CIA assets who were instrumental in getting OBL

Oooo boy. I'm actually quite excited at history unfolding before my eyes. But at the same time, it's easily to be detached from what is going on beyond my cosy little Australian suburban home.

It seems the Taliban have rubbished reports that they were gonna offer him protection. They don't want his support because they think (probably correctly) that he's only doing this as an election stunt. Imran is gonna go ahead anyway. Some splinter groups of the Taliban have outright threatened to attack as well. And thats all without including the military, who are wary of the march (since if anyone is attacked, it proves they haven't yet secured South Waziristan, which they have claimed to do since 2009) and may stop him cold (since the military controls access to the FATA).

It all goes down Sunday, ladies and gentlemen. Place your bets.

Imran is pretty safe from the Americans. Whatever some of you might think, they aren't that stupid. He is in more danger from elements of the Pakistani military intelligence apparatus who would like him deader than the average doornail, or from the Taliban themselves.

I heard about this in August - the Taliban threatened they would kill Imran Khan.

I've just done a quick Google on this and, well, nothing's different. The Taliban have threatened him again. Indeed they've decided he's an agent of Israel, the US blah blah blah. I think it's actually because they don't want him muscling in on the action there.

I don't know what I'd bet on. It could go anywhere but I'd say it'd most likely be an under-attended washout due to the Taliban threats and the Army will just tell the hundred or so marchers that they can't continue on. Then again it could be very successful - though I don't think the Taliban would allow such a thing because it would show their threats as hollow and give Khan too much influence over their territory.

edited 6th Oct '12 11:54:13 AM by betaalpha

Except the Army is also not stupid enough to kill the nation's most popular politician at a time when they're already politically vunerable. Thats not even getting into the widely-held belief that the Army backs Imran. Best they can do is simply make him halt.

The Army could stop him from continuing, but its not an easy decision. I read an article recently that basically laid out the dilemma: if they stop him, they'll take yet another PR hit. But if they let him in, it plays into the "Imran is the Army's blue-eyed boy" meme, which reflects bad on them both, politically. Agreed on everything else though.

edited 6th Oct '12 5:21:29 PM by FFShinra

Update from the BBC

Sounds like sense prevailed - I don't think continuing into the area and having IE Ds blow up civilian cars and cause horrific panic would have helped anyone's cause.

edited 7th Oct '12 5:33:22 AM by betaalpha

Indeed. You were also right in that it seems to have been a washout, though quite a few attended.

Down the line, I'm thinking this won't strengthen his position outside of the faithful though. A lot of people have gone from thinking the guy is naive to thinking that he's outright insane/desperate for even thinking of putting people in danger to stop drones. Some add on to that to say he's a hypocrite because he won't do the same for victims of the Taliban. Middling effect overall.

edited 7th Oct '12 1:08:34 PM by FFShinra

I think being a hypocrite and a liar and a fraud are part of the job description for politicians the world over, so Khaaaaann!! being one doesn't surprise me in the least. The loss of a lot of his political capital (from backing down in the face of his several enemies) is a bonus.

Its not whether he is or not (for a politician, it is a given), its whether or not the perception is made obvious to the people.

And if so, whether that outweighs his main selling point: He's better than all the other guys you could possibly vote for. When you're competing against a guy like Zardari (out of touch professional moocher who only cares about completing his term who has earned a 13% approval rating, last checked) and Nawaz Sharif (vain, grudge-holding, living embodiment of a fat cat one-percenter who pays no taxes), and the mullahs (who want to ban everything and make everyone grow beards), Imran Khan (cricket superstar, handsome ex-playboy, runs a world-class cancer hospital) seems almost a shoo-in, even if he is dangerously naive and/or disingenous in the extreme when it comes to actual policy.

Also, the march is a relative bust, and as such won't give much positive dividend, but there is nothing to suggest he's taken a beating to his currently existing capital. As I said earlier, this event effectively preached to the choir to great effect. What I was saying before was only that the intelligencia over there will no longer give him the benefit of the doubt, which will hurt over time, but not now.

The Taliban does something nasty and is happy to admit to it - don't follow the link if you don't want to get angry. If you do, please don't explode on this thread.

Trying myself to be dispassionate as possible, it's important to keep actions like this in mind when someone talks about negotiations, concessions or even appeasement towards the Taliban.

Now when that article says Taliban, does it mean the actual Taliban, or the wave of militant groups that people put under the umbrella label of the Taliban?

Either way, this isn't exactly a shocking or new development.

I'm not sure what the difference is between the two. However, the individual who admitted responsibility is an acknowledged spokesperson of the Pakistani wing of the Taliban.

It has actually deeply shocked the country. The Taliban may have done worse in their history, they may even have done worse this week, but this particular attack has especially struck a nerve. Ie. they targeted and tried to assassinate not a politician or a group of soldiers, but a fourteen year old schoolgirl. And then admitted they did it. And tried to justify it.

I knew it was shocking to them, just not shocking to me. Like you said, the Taliban do worse (and admit to it) every week.

Can't really add much that hasn't already been said. I just hope this does become a watershed moment (there were several incidents in the last couple of years that almost got there, but nothing so stark as this)...

Pakistani police have arrested some suspects in this case.

Malala becomes a global icon.

I like this blog's take on it:

I'm pleasantly surprised by all the people that appear with placards fiercely condemning the Taliban - this is a group that operates through fear as much as any willing commitment, and this latest action has lost it a lot of both.

edited 12th Oct '12 3:58:14 PM by betaalpha

The parties that, up til now, have been blaming the whole war on drone strikes are now in a verbal war with everyone else thanks to this girl. Maybe now there might be political movement on the issue. As it is, the army can only secure an area...unless the government reestablishes the writ of state, momentum favors the thugs.

It seems the girl has stabilized and has been transferred to the UK for further treatment.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57532152/pakistani-girl-shot-by-taliban-being-taken-to-u.k/

Good. Hope that she makes as full a recovery as possible. That would be a great thing, and a great "fuck you!" to the Taliban arseholes that shot her.

She's at the QE in Birmingham, where British Soldiers go — she'll be all right in the end. And apparently the Pakistani Government will be covering all treatment costs.

Either way, it is apparent the Taliban have crossed the Moral Event Horizon, even in Pakistan.

edited 15th Oct '12 2:20:00 PM by Greenmantle

Certainly so among the public. The parties are, as usual, more ambivalent, but because of the nature of this incident, they will have to be unequivocal in whatever position on the potential NWA operation they take, and it looks like it might stick. Especially since the military has already passed the buck on to Parliament. I'm gonna be very interested to see how this dynamic plays out.

Petition to award Malala the Nobel Peace Prize.

Watch the video.

Couple of things:

Normally I wouldn't have mentioned it, but it seems an incident along the Line of Control has blown up tensions. Pakistani soldier died, Islamabad is blaming India for crossing the Lo C into Pakistan-administered Kashmir, India says they never crossed and that the soldier had been killed in retaliation to mortar strikes. A few days later, two Indian soldiers are killed and one of their bodies was brutalized (as to how depends on the news source). Now all the international media is in uproar and the Indian media is questioning whether peace is possible.

Today, there was a bombing in Quetta that killed 50, injured another 100.

A Canada-based Pakistani cleric is calling on a technocratic (which in Pakistan is usually a euphemism for military-controlled) caretaker government at the end of the current government's tenure in a couple of months. This as opposed to a caretaker government decided on by the main party of the governing coalition and the main opposition party.

Also, Malala was released from the hospital to outpatient care a week ago.

PS - Could we change the title of this thread please? Or open the other one?

Okay so that blast I mentioned ended up killing 100 plus all together, and happened while another blast killed twenty, andother killed 11, all claimed by different organizations, and hundreds were injured. The Shia killed in the 100-person blast have refused to bury their dead until the president imposes governor's rule throughout the province and does something to stop the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi's war against the Hazaras. Lots of protests are happening in other major cities in Pakistan. Something may come of this...