Is the console dying? Will it ever die? When will it die?

Handhelds are bleeding the casual market to smart phones (iOS or Android), but in turn are becoming mini-consoles.

INT is knowing a tomato is a fruit. WIS is knowing it doesn't belong in a fruit salad. CHA is convincing people that it does.

As long as Japanese developers are a significant force in developing games, consoles aren't going anywhere. P Cs have the stigma of being for porn games and indie developers over there.

edited 27th May '11 12:14:25 AM by NeoChaos

Thread hop: Favoring a specific electronic device is too much of a religion for me to see certain people changing their minds about anything based on this thread. Everyone else, I'll direct to this.

That's Feo . . . He's a disgusting, mysoginistic, paedophilic asshat who moonlights as a shitty writer—Something Awful

Someday we'll all be playing Tetris...by turning on our holographic visors, or, heck, by playing it on a Gameboy emulator. Which is running on Windows 19. In our augmented brains.

As far as that link... I agree to some extent. It's especially true of the games that are still sold on disks. However, something has been happening to the console market, over time, and I think it's rather interesting.

At the beginning, you needed a widget that contained the game, to hook up to the TV. This was something like a Pong unit or other device that could only play one game, or a handful. Then, the dedicated "consoles" appeared, which were capable of playing multiple games. Most of these were cartridge-based, up until the attempt at marching forward by Sony with the aid of Philips — a match that was not meant for this world, as it resulted in a cancellation of the Nintendo Disk System and the creation of the monster known as the CD-i. Then again, it also gave us the Sega CD add-on device, which... Erm... Y'know what, let's not talk about that one either. Let's skip straight to the Playstation and its legacy.

See, from the Playstation onward, games have been all about this little disk that comes in a package that's shaped a lot like a CD case, or nowadays, a DVD/Blu-ray case. The game is in the CD, the manual comes along with it, and that's what you've got to work with. Thing is, the most recent generation of game consoles have seen the writing on the wall, and they're all online, all the time (and wirelessly so!) with applications on them for social networking and communication in-game or about game-related things, while you're playing said games.

The disk-based systems Extra Credits are talking about are certainly dying. I wouldn't be surprised if the next generation of consoles have a Blu-ray player that doubles as a backwards compatibility slot for the outmoded disk-based games, but relied heavily on downloadable content for everything else. Downloadable games aren't just an "indie" thing, or the target of web-based junkie games like Farmville, they're being slowly accepted by the AAA studios too.

Take a look at XBLA's "Games on Demand" service sometime. Dragon Age, Halo: Reach, Prototype, Darksiders, Borderlands? All there. The only trouble is that they're not there until after they've been in disk form for a while. This is because those AAA publishers, and the industry in general, haven't quite come to grips with the approaching death of the disk, and for that matter, the death of the $60 price tag.

I don't think that consoles or dedicated consumer computer tech of some kind will ever really die out, mostly because the high-end graphics and sound technology is something we need on the local side. The "streaming media" gaming movement, where you don't actually play the game locally but send the controls to a server, which streams the video of the game you're playing back to you, is unlikely to be viable for a long time, if ever. This is because of network latency, which isn't likely to go away or turn down anytime soon. Every time you press "jump" and wait a blink to see it happen, a game dev cries.

However, as said by one of those awesome Swedes I mentioned before (MHG), "Det är inte relevant att bygga ut tekniken, bara bygga bättre spel." I.e., it's no longer relevant to build better technology, only to make better games. The little web games are showing this. Phones are better at handling game technology than we've given them credit for in the past. Their 3D acceleration and sound processing tech aren't all that powerful yet, but they're getting there. The "mobile app" market is expanding fast, and there are companies that are snatching it up right now. There are tools online, still in the process of being built, designed to produce apps for simultaneous release on iPhone, Android, and Windows Mobile 7. Web-based and app-based games are going cross-platform.

If the PC market follows this trend, PC gaming may become more popular than before. The shiny graphics and sounds are still going to attract customers, just as they have before, but we need to find more ways to make it affordable. Keep the shinies, but drive the price down. Don't ask for $60 for a game anymore; no-one was happy with that hike when the standard was $50, they're certainly not going to be happy with it now that they can pick up cheap games at the downloadable market for $20, $15, $15... or $1. AAA price targets should be around $40 to stay relevant.

And as for consoles? I seem to remember a discussion earlier that PCs are harder to deal with because of all the cables, controllers, and the separate monitor you need. Thing is, PCs can be controlled wirelessly now, using all kinds of devices (including a Wii-mote if you hack one in!) and the TV you have at home can act as a screen for any modern PC. The lines between Console and PC technology will continue to blur over time. We may well see the set-top boxes under our TVs go from being dedicated gaming devices to being fully-upgradable gaming PCs.

Sony tried it before with the Vaio, but prices and bulk made it unweildy. Perhaps the time for that concept is approaching once more.

Alternatively, we might see consoles get smaller as they get more powerful. Something the size of a Wii that can play games we haven't seen the like of, I could go for. If it doesn't have a disk in it, maybe there's a good reason not to have one anymore. We didn't mourn the death of memory cards, why mourn the death of the disk?

edited 27th May '11 6:24:31 AM by GoggleFox

Sakamoto demands an explanation for this shit.

Just want to make a note that despite the fact that I am in the IT field, I have never built my own computer and have no intention of ever doing so, despite the cost savings. There's too much crap that can go wrong and I like having manufacturers' warranties on my side. Oh, and I'm lazy. If we only look at prebuilt systems, the argument that "P Cs are cheaper than consoles" generally dies.

I doubt I'm alone. If you could go up to ten random people with Wii's or PS 3's and tell them they could get a PC for the same price but they'd have to put it together themselves and deal with the manufacturers of individual parts if something goes wrong or doesn't work great, I have a feeling you won't get many people switching.

Jesus, I thought it was just me. It's not just grandma who doesn't want to deal with all that BS. I do my PC-ing on a laptop and can't be bothered to build a 'gaming rig', esp as someone who doesn't care about FP Ses and RT Ses.

Except [condescending response follows]. Because [sarcasm here]. You do understand [snark], right? POTHOLE TO SARCASM MODE

Consoles are the Macs of the gaming world. You don't have to worry about the hardware. You just buy the console and then go pick out whatever game you want confident that it will work just fine. You can play on line via the console manufacturer's service, buy things from their market, and in general be assured that so long as you stay on the reservation everything will be fine. It's easy and convienent and for a lot of people those are the things that matter most. To them I say more power to you. I'll put up with the aggrivations of computer gaming simply for the greater freedom it allows.

Consoles are going no where because they've got some major advantages over computers in a few areas that are very significant to a lot of people.

"Tyyr's a necessary evil. " Spirit

I guess it's worth pointing out that consoles have been getting a bit more difficult to deal with in recent times. Being generally expensive, DRM, more hardware failures than ever on all three big consoles, stuff like the PSN debacle, being nickel and dimed with poorly-implemented DLC and retailer-exclusive preorder bonuses, etc.

While I do think the general "consoles are easier to deal with than P Cs" argument still has merit, I also think that it's slowly losing ground as well.

Besides, everybody knows that handhelds are the TRUE Master Race.

As for the physical durability of PC parts.

Honestly, I have seen people stomp on all sorts of computer parts while they're running with no problems. Not the least of which jumping up and SS Ds on a currently running computer.

My Corsair 750W PSU has a 5 year warranty. And this is likely a PSU that will last me for the rest of my life, in ANY computer I ever want to build in the future, unless I want to spend insane amounts of money(those excessed I was speaking about) on graphics cards, in which I would be best off getting a $300 1000+ Watt Power Supply. THEN I would be set until I die, for ANYTHING I wanted to do, period, short of supplying power to a Supercomputer room. And these sorts of high wattage Power Supplies by people like Corsair and Enermax really will last me until death. And would probably even withstand a few hits by a sledgehammer just fine.

Also, most consoles have plastic casing. while you can get computer cases made out of steel. You may also try to cite the size difference as an advantage of consoles, but you can make home computers just as small. See here: [1]. You can put an enthusiast card and an overclocked Six-Core in that case. Skip to the very end if you want to see evidence of that.

And graphics cards, I've used a heavily bent graphics card before, just fine. Literally, someone gave me a bent graphics card. And it runs every game on the market. It isn't the one I am currently using, but it would run Shogun 2.

I see.

(This is what I should have been responding to)

Well, what do you think our chances of seeing a Play Station 5, are? Most people I've asked this question to have said things like "I don't think consoles as a market will last long enough for a Play Station 5 to be feasible."

Actually, just for posterity purposes, I should write that Play Station 5, to be able to look on this thread several years from now and see if it's still redlinked.

edited 27th May '11 9:18:47 AM by Ukonkivi

Genkidama for Japan, even if you don't have money, you can help![1]

it's funny to note that consoles are becoming more like P Cs with each generation anyways.

last-gen XBOX used off-the-shelf PC components and just ran a different OS. The PS 2 introduced the hard drive and internet connectivity.

this gen, a local hard drive and a constant internet connection is nearly a must-have. Some games are even asking for an installation before playing to improve load times. patching games via downloadable content is becoming the standard for console games as well.

Eventually, it'll be more of a SDK war to win developers. Microsoft and Sony won't have many exclusives left- they can only offer so much incentive for each exclusive, and every platform a developer isn't selling their game on is millions of potential dollars down the drain. The normal incentive is to drop the up-front licensing fees for the games, but eventually they'll pretty much be paying out of their own pockets to get developers to get an exclusive game on their console. (For reference, see Halo 3: Microsoft buys Bungie, makes one game, sells Bungie). Developers want easy cross-platform compatibility. We're already seeing it with the XNA platform from Microsoft. As long as the SDK can provide easy compatibility with the PC, that's like a guaranteed bonus 10 million potential customers without writing any extra code. The console will be nothing more than a very specific PC hardware configuration that they'll want to optimize for.

edited 28th May '11 12:44:40 AM by willyolio

And if it boils down to that, Epic Games and Valve might yet be the reigning kings in that regard. See: Unreal Development Kit, Source SDK.

"Hipsters: the most dangerous gang in the US." - Pacific Mackerel

Sorry to knock this topic back up, but I came across this article...

http://www.the-ghetto.org/content/the-decline-of-console-video-games-is-upon-us

Don't Press Your Luck too many times in life. You'll just get whammied.

Interesting article. I must say that there are some rather biased points there but there are also a lot of good points.

Apocalypse: Dirge Of Swans.

PC gaming won't kill console gaming. It will make love with it instead, and we will be playing all of our games on PC-Console hybrids with all of the different kind of inputs (mouse, keyboard, gamepad, motion controllers...) available for purchase.

You see, the main advantage that P Cs have over consoles at this time is that they are not dedicated gaming machines. You can surf the internet, write emails and do other things that you can't do efficiently on a console.

One of the main assumptions about the death of consoles is that portable devices*

are going to skyrocket in popularity, right? Let's say that did happen, how many people would continue to use P Cs for non-gaming purposes, assuming that you could surf, the internet, browse Facebook and write Emails on a smaller, cheaper, less powerful device? Not all that many, I believe.

So I believe that the traditional PC and larger notebooks will become a specialist devices used mostly in enterprise and business as a result. As a result, P Cs at home are essentially going to lose their purpose outside of playing video games.

Meanwhile Consoles are becoming more PC-like anyway. All modern consoles have a web browser included, some offer Hard Drive upgrades, all offer a download service of some sort (even if the Wii's is more limited than the PS 3's or the 360's).

So that means that that the natural evolutionary course of both consoles and P Cs are going to collide and essentially become the same thing; a upgradeable piece of hardware which specializes in playing video games. So will there still be console wars? Probably. They do exactly the same as what they are doing now and sell hardware. Remember the days of ZX Spectrums, Commodore 64s and BBC Micros? Just because we only have 2 unique, for lack of a better word, personal computer specifications (the Apple Mac and generic P Cs) right now doesn't mean that we won't go back to the early 1980's, where there were a lot more unique P Cs on the market.

My standard Anime Theme song game variant rules: [Censored by ACTA]

No, no and never.

Definitely not by PC's hand.

You have a lot of points, but no, we will not return to the 80s. The network effect is too strong: even the Mac only survives via providing Windows compatibility.

Home of CBR Rumbles-in-Exile: rumbles.fr.yuku.com

The worst damage the handheld market will do is utterly destroy Nintendo's dominance in that field. The 3DS is weak and the Android/Iphone are strong.

Apocalypse: Dirge Of Swans.

My thoughts reguarding the matter:

• I cannot determine in what way consoles will do in competion with the growth in handheld devices but remember: mutiple players can use the same console at once. Consider this in motion.

• P Cs gaming wise may still a have future. Non-gaming wise they still have a future. Note pads may be mobile but a keyboard is more focused on work (including adamenic), allows presenation and is more relaxing.

• I sense a opening for the gaming handheld market.

• I cannot see the future so that is all I can guess ATM.

I’m a lumberjack and I’m ok. I sleep all night and work all day.

I predict gaming as a whole will continue unabated for at least a decade or two more.

The Console and the PC are beginning to blend, but that does not mean they will finish blending.

Consoles offer a standardized platform to develop for, as opposed to P Cs

I see the blending. I believe P Cs will become Consoles.

Not to sound like Captain Obvious, but video game publishers will go where the money is. If they can't make a profit selling on a device, then they will have few reasons to publish games for that device. So where is the money right now? That's a good question.

Windows: The perennial problem is the vast amount of differences between machines. Except for people who understand their hardware, it's tough to know what games will work with what PC.

I know that a number of companies are selling PC games online. And for independent groups, this is the first and best option. I'm not sure *how well* Windows game sales are — I don't have any data to indicate whether they're improving, declining, or holding steady.

Some brick and mortar stores still carry a reasonable selection of PC games. I've seen a decent lineup at Best Buy and Fry's. But I don't know if customers have reasons to buy boxed PC games... since they're essentially purchasing a CD key. Almost nothing on PC works without activation, and a few offline games have frustrating features such as requiring uninterrupted internet access.

Xbox 360 and Playstation 3: both consoles have been important for Serious Business video game fans over the last few years. Both have had serious problems (red ring of death, Playstation Network hacking). Both are devices that carry over a number of features that used to be associated mostly with computers (emphasis on online gameplay and multimedia, support for independent developers). And in both cases, there are no plans *yet* for a follow-up console.

I'm not sure how much success are having with selling 360 and PS 3 games. Right now, they seem like consoles that might endure another year or two. But if there's a sudden market change, or if some new problem emerges, then things could go wrong. And how long will it be until Sony or Microsoft announces the next major console?

Ios, Android, and cellphones: A few years ago, it seemed like Itunes was a "wild west" where publishers could make pretty much anything and have a huge profit. But it looks like the reality is that the publishers who have excellent marketing and word-of-mouth are the only ones who succeed. Selling games for tiny amounts of money is a great deal for customers, but if the companies don't their games noticed, and only sell a few copies... But setting my concerns aside, I will concede that games for portable devices is a potent market.

3DS: Will it succeed? Maybe. Remember, many people believed that the original DS would not get a lineup of solid software, and that it would lose to the PSP. On the other hand, the 3DS still has $40 US games, and some of them may not be as compelling as $1-5 games on portable devices. This system might still fail if companies can't sell games. I think its success will be limited at best.

Vita: Will it succeed? Maybe. Remember, the PSP was not a failure. But the Vita is looking like a handheld system with high-end games, and customers may not be willing to pay.

Wii U: Will it find an audience? Good question. Talk of backwards compatibility sounds good, but if there are few games which attract customers, then they will look elsewhere. It's worrying to think that the controller could be an expensive compromise between "simple remote" and "complex, precise gamepad."

DS, PSP, and Wii: For at least a year, all three systems had good software support. But the audiences don't seem to be buying any more...

has anybody seen this? [1]

Never tell your problems to anyone...20% don't care and the other 80% are glad you have them.

No, but now that I have, I feel insulted in some strange way. I think I am getting old.

Join us in our quest to play all RPG video games! Moving on to disc 2 of Grandia!

1. The console is not dying. It's just changing. On one hand, you can't (yet) make a good console as portable as a cell phone due to the fact that it's easier to make a good console without the space limits of a pocket ('50s computers were house-sized, but today they fit inside of houses), and the fact that it's extremely difficult to capture the experience of a console onto a portable device (mostly due to screen size, controls, hardware). On the other hand, one day we might all carry around our prime gaming rigs in our pockets for the convenience of it (as opposed to the hardware capabilities of something larger; see earlier paragraph) and connect said gaming rigs into T Vs when they're available. Heck, it might even become common practice not to leave your (highly portable) gaming rig at home, so you can have a good match utilizing a wi-fi connection.

2. The idea behind the game console isn't changing too much. Therefore, it will always be essentially the same. So don't panic.

3. The PC (or equivalent) probably won't be dethroned as a gaming console anytime, as there are always emulators.

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