The Arab Spring

Send in the Foreign Legion. That's what they're for.

To be clear, France lacks the military capability to actually force Turkey to do anything. No one can do that but the US and (by virtue of having its largest military concentrations a stone's throw away) Russia. France's expeditionary warfare capability is borderline non-existent on a scale that actually matters. Any confrontation would be purely political, and Turkey itself has more than a few strings it can pull to make such a confrontation undesirable for France (like the presence of some 4 million Syrian refugees they're preventing from going to Europe).

Of course, that's assuming we live in a world where such a confrontation would actually happen. We do not live in that world. France, Turkey, and the USA will extensively talk about any actions behind the scenes before doing anything and make sure not to step on each other's toes.

edited 29th Mar '18 11:38:11 PM by NogaiKhan

Looks like the Kurds did make the whole thing up.

I'm guessing that the leaders in Paris don't speak diolomatese and Macron does, leading to dangerous misunderstandings?

It's possible Macron had said and meant it, but he had said it before Trump decided to withdraw mere hours later. Now his people are trying to roll it back because France does not want to be the one left holding the bag on its own for no reason and no benefit at all.

Manbij is fucked.

US SOF are still there, I wonder if they’ll turn and run or stick around?

Turkey's Anadolu news agency publishes map of French military positions in Syria

Meanwhile in Yemen,

A fire at Hodeidah port, where the World Food Program is warehousing their aid, is in flames right now. Current theory is that its just an accident, a short ignited the blaze. But for a country at near famine levels, this is still devastating.

So Trump wants the US out in 6 months. Probably less.

I think I found footage of this somewhere...

Trump withdrew the decision, but he ain’t happy about it.

——

There’s word from human rights groups that Eastern Ghouta is under attack via chemical weapons. Damascus says that they didn’t do it.

There might be dozens in a gas barrel bomb attack in Eastern Ghouta. And this was done when the SAA has mostly won this battle.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/07/middleeast/syria-suspected-chemical-attack/index.html

The Chinless One and his friends sure do like their terror weapons.

BBC is reporting at least 70 dead, and that it was a nerve agent (probably sarin).

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43686157

edited 7th Apr '18 6:36:27 PM by Rationalinsanity

The Tiyas (aka T-4) Airbase in Homs just got hit with an airstrike. No one is claiming responsibility as yet, but given that Trump tweeted against "Animal Assad" earlier today....

Syrian media dropped news that America was behind it. They later retracted it.

edited 8th Apr '18 9:10:17 PM by Ominae

Given the M.O. it might as well be the Israeli Air Force.

Wasn't there already a confirmation it was Israel? Huh.

Damascus is calling out Tel Aviv for it...

Seems it was the Israelis, though reason has yet to be given. The "real" strike from the US might come in a few hours though.

Especially because Trump is livid over recent domestic developments (his lawyer getting raided by the FBI) and probably wants a distraction. A few missile strikes or bombing runs on Syria would be flashy, and he's all about that.

If another strike does manage to materialize based on what we’re hearing it’s going to be something “real” rather a warning shot like last war. I would assume going after Assad’s air wing or IADS.

It’s sounding like the Israelis struck at T4 due to the Iranian presence there.

Methinks it'll be the airwing, as it provides little practical value beyond terror bombing and symbolism at this point.

Can Assad's airforce be damaged without killing dozens of Russian military personnel?

Maybe, maybe not. I imagine that's going to be the calculus on a potential strike. If we don't directly strike at their air wing we could also seriously degrade their ability to conduct air ops by destroying runways or fuel depots.

Or you just pull it through and to hell with Russian fatalities.

Now Damascus is accusing Tel Aviv of conducting a chemical weapons attack on Syrian soil.

Taken out all the stops in fingerpointing.