The Arab Spring

If left up to the locals, I think the Houthis and the Hirak would agree to a divorce, returning to the pre-1990 borders. It's been the proxy nature of the fight that has kept things at stalemate, on both sides. To the credit of the Hirak, they now seem to have a solid regional power backing them (the UAE) so now it's just about getting Riyadh to accept that Hadi is never going to be accepted by the populace and, more importantly, that Yemen cannot remain unified, or at least a unitary state as it existed between 1990 and the beginning of the civil war.

Pity that the Saudi king and the new crown prince are unlikely to agree to such a deal. Why are they going to bat so hard for Hadi anyway?

So, the Iraqis have more or less declared victory in Mosul. The PM showed up there, and ISF sources claim that there are about 100 fighters left with their backs to the river.

Next target appears to be the Syrian border region, and then holdouts north of Baghdad.

But with ISIS gone and the Kurds about to vote for independence, we will see how long everyone plays nice.

edited 9th Jul '17 7:59:19 AM by Rationalinsanity

It's always something...

Indeed.

As for why the Saudis are going to bat for Hadi, they do not want an Iranian client on their border. The Hirak do not care about the North and would just as soon leave it to the Houthis as they would to Hadi. The UAE clearly no longer thinks they can win and are not directly threatened by a Houthi controlled state, since it's not on their border, and so are willing to deal with a movement that has more legitimacy (and thus requires less effort to prop up) than Hadi.

It probably helps that they seem to be getting the Socotra archipelago in exchange for their help. Just a few days ago, it was reported that they had built, in secret from Hadi, a military base on one of the smaller islands, smack dab in the middle of straits leading into the Red Sea.

Washington Post: Trump ends covert CIA program to arm anti-Assad rebels in Syria, a move sought by Moscow

Ok, this guy is nakedly trying to reward his master as much as possible before he goes out.

If anything, Trump's just proving people in the Middle East right about how trusting the US is a fool's endeavour.

@ Fluffy Mc Chicken

I am going to chime in whenever we arm rebels, they often times prove to be just as bad as the dictators we overthrow. Remember what happened in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion. Also a lot of rebel Syrian factions tend to have very extreme leanings and have been known to target religious minorities.

Thing is, the problem isn't so much supporting groups a lot of the time - it's the "bugger off immediately afterwards" thing that causes problems.

Just arming a bunch of people or bombing some shit is not going to promote positive change - you need to actually offer post-war support to the people, help them rebuild.

edited 20th Jul '17 1:29:26 PM by DrunkenNordmann

The only reason the predecessors of the Taliban got arms was because the CIA had no control over the arms they gave to ISI. The rest went to what became known as the Northern Alliance.

Oh, and the reason there are barely any moderate groups left are because:

1) Assad poisoned the well

2) They all were killed to a man while the First World was doing this:

Or, I don't know, complaining about women with opinions.

Yes, the US provided weapons to Pakistani intelegence int he belief that they'd arm reasonable groups, Pakistani intelegence armed groups that would alter become the Taliban. Once the US found this out it started arming ours directly (and with British help), said groups largely stayed loyal to the US and UK over the years and now form the Afghanistan government.

One leader of whom by the way warned about a incoming major terrorist attack in a speech to the European Parliment several months before 9/11 happened, said leader was assassinated (by suicide bomber) by AQ on September the 9th 2001, on the orders of Bin Laden as a thank you to the Taliban and to help them maintain control of Afghanistan.

We made some good friends in Afghanistan and many of them didn't let us down, we let them down.

edited 20th Jul '17 2:40:51 PM by Silasw

Well, y'all do as you must, 'cause you can. For the good of all of us (except for those who are dead).

edited 20th Jul '17 2:47:19 PM by TheHandle

Afghanistan can be discussed elsewhere guys.

As for Trump, given how mediocre that program was, I'm not too mad about it in terms of effect on the battlefield. Am mad that Trump let everyone know.

On the other hand, I want to see if the Pentagon will simply reroute the money through Jordan instead....

That or the anti-Assad groups will just be reclassified as anti-ISIS groups, who happen to have to go though Assad to get at ISIS.

Indeed.

Meanwhile, in Yemen...

It seems the crisis between Qatar and the rest of the Gulf is going to have yet another affect on the war in Yemen (the first being that Qatari forces left the Saudi-led coalition, weakening it and slowing any prospect of an offensive). The al-Islah party, that technically makes up most of the parliament of the recognized Hadi government....are allies of the Muslim Brotherhood. The kerfuffle with Qatar is making ministers loyal to said party likely to back Qatar's side of the equation.

No big deal, right? Saudia hosts the government while the war goes on and they could just disappear them one way or another, yeah?

Well sure, but there is also one other major Islah loyalist who isn't in the parliament: Vice President (and former general) Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, he who Saleh tried to assassinate back when he was still president because the guy was so powerful, he who Hadi tried to sideline and costed him Sanaa for his trouble, he who commands the loyalty of a very large tribal confederation in north Yemen.....

Thats not even getting into the fact that Islah has its own fighters involved in the war, an important lynch pin to the local fighters in the Hadi coalition because they are the only ones with northern supporters (and who wants to bet thats Ahmar's doing...).

So, the clusterfuck is going to intensify, considering the tribal confederation will rally behind him against Hadi. Is the confederation spread across the whole of north Yemen, or are there specific areas where they can be located on the map?

... Major player, you say? Me, I'm seeing "keystone chief". A loose keystone out to raise a council of his own.

Saud fucked up. Big time.

The question is: how many of the "saved, not imprisoned, honestly" government will turn into singing nightingales of moles, given the chance? I'd bet on a fair proportion, myself. Security headache.

edited 21st Jul '17 2:26:01 AM by Euodiachloris

The parts of former North Yemen they control are because of the Ahmar confederation.

I'd not be surprised if Hadi suspends the parliament. It's not like they are doing anything anyway.

It'd also earn him even more enemies though. If the Ahmar leave his side, Hadi might as well throw his return ticket to Yemen away.

One Iraqi city opens its first bar following being freed of IS rule.

I sincerely hope that there can be a lasting state of peace in Iraq again after IS is driven away from the country.

As Mosul has now been liberated, it won't be long until it occurs.

Been reading that Tunisia has reformed their sex law so as to install more effective protections for women. And to can the gender discriminatory age of consent law, which previously had a higher A-O-C for women than for men.

All the major news agencies are reporting that the city of Deir Ez Zor, under Daesh siege for a little over three years, has now been liberated by regime forces.

The maps I'm looking at are showing only partial liberation, basically regime forces have moved in from the west of the city and are close to connecting up with the besieged forces in the west.

Only a matter of time though. A shame, I was hoping it would be the Kurds.

Same, but they appear to still be bogged down in Raqqa.

'Israeli jets hit Syria's Masyaf chemical site' - reports