The Arab Spring

Yahoo News reports that the ceasefire deal collapsed, apparently due to Iran imposing new demands upon the rebels. This happened after the civilians have already left their shelters to be evacuated, with the resumed air bombing thus catching them by surprise and killing at least six more people.

   Fuck Russia. Fuck Assad. Fuck Iran. Fuck them with a goddamn nuke up their filthy asses.   

edited 14th Dec '16 12:03:28 PM by MarqFJA

What happens to the humanitarian relief groups if captured by pro-government forces?

The Russians and Iranians might show restraint, but I wouldn't expect the Syrians or the loyalist militias to . . .

hey, hey. Don't give our President-Elect any more ideas than he already has.

edited 14th Dec '16 12:42:43 PM by FluffyMcChicken

Has the deal collapsed completely, or only in certain areas/instances?

Judging by reports, appears to be a complete collapse. No evacuations, no nothing. The deal was practically non-existant.

It seems not all is lost. Whoever is behind the evacuation deal seems determined to have it implemented.

Not all is lost indeed! Looks like we finally got tired of Assad sabotaging every peace deal we tried to broker.

Some twitter reports of a few Shia militia snipers taking potshots at people though, making it difficult.

It's interesting that Iran seemed to be the biggest hold out as far as getting the evacuation and cease-fire done was concerned.

I wonder what the story surrounding that is.

Sectarian and ethnic concerns. Militias are also generally uncontrollable, compared to Hezbollah or Quds Force led groups.

This is as much a power play in the region as it is ideological.

edited 15th Dec '16 6:19:31 AM by TerminusEst

Remember also that Russia and Iran have different goals.

I think that the Shia militias are simply out of control and abusing the Sunnis in Aleppo out of plain old sectarian hatred. They have a reputation for doing that in Iraq, after all.

How different exactly? I mean, both see Syria as an important ally/ source of influence in the region, the only obvious differences to me are ones of proximity and urgency.

So far, so good with the evacuation.

Although I find it odd that nobody appears to talk about how Russia seems willing to spare Aleppo's civilians - I mean, I'm not expecting any praise or anything, but something along the lines of "maybe Russia isn't as irredeemably evil as we thought" would be nice.

Iran is interested in fighting Saudi Arabia and Israel on ideological grounds, while Russia doesn't mind cutting deals with either, I think.

edited 15th Dec '16 10:27:27 AM by KnitTie

Looks like Mosul is slowly but surely falling, with brutal losses all around.

edited 15th Dec '16 10:26:03 AM by Rationalinsanity

Here at least the idea of Russia being pure evil died long ago, while in the media in general such soul searching and self-consideration is not a thing that happens.

Too much Russian money in London for us to be evil, right?

Eh, any country that could make sour cream in soup work has to be doing something right, imho.

Oh no, the Russian money in the city is one of the things we hate you for, nobody like the City of London.

By here I meant on TV Tropes.

edited 15th Dec '16 12:02:25 PM by Silasw

Oh, I was talking solely about the media.

@Mio - Russia wants Latakia and Tartus and someone friendly in Damascus. If there was a viable alternative to Assad (which there is not), they'd not really mind dealing with that guy. They have no interest in the regional cold war, beyond maybe acting as an arbiter, they have no beef with the Kurds, and they don't hold Syria's borders sacrosanct.

Iran wants its Shia cresent, they want Assad specifically to be in power because he is an Alawite. They don't have a beef with the Kurds either, but unlike Russia, they will not let them cut Syria off from Iraq, since that betrays the wanting the shia cresent thing. They want to change the demographic balance in favor of the Shia and other minorities, to keep Syria forever out of Sunni grasp. They don't hold Syria's borders sacrosanct vis a vis Iraq or Lebanon, but do otherwise.

The simpler way to note the differences is Russia is pragmatic, Iran ideological when it comes to what they ultimately want from this war.

Aleppo evacuation continues with no serious complications.

edited 16th Dec '16 12:08:06 AM by KnitTie

Please, please let this continue. Aleppo has been through enough crap as it is.

Nope, there are still complications. This time it seems that the rebels have blocked evacuation from two Shia towns that was a condition for the evacuation from Aleppo - and given how much the Syrian civil war is a sectarian conflict between Sunnis and non-Sunnis, I find this highly plausible.

...Welp, that didn't take long.

It wouldn't be an evacuation in a war zone without complications arising, after all.