The Arab Spring

Ether he thinks he can take Aleppo and exterminate the rebellion by that time, and thus use the talks to form a new order in Syria to his liking, or he is genuinely scared about the possibility of Saudi or Turkish intervention.

Probably he is using the ceasefire as a pause to see how willing are Turkey and Saudi Arabi to enter into the fray. That and to see if they would be alone or have international support.

I can't imagine they'd be stupid enough to attack during a truce.

Maybe he is doing it also to give a breather to the Iranian and Syrian combatants and bring more Russian troops to the field.

Let's see if this ceasefire even takes effect, guys. Even if Russia and Iran are serious, the rebels may not agree, having already walked out.

In fact, this might be a (very effective) ploy to make the rebels out to be the sticks in the mud toward peace while making Assad look reasonable. It's twisted and it's sick, but...

On the other hand, if the rebels do stop as well (and the Russians aren't merely bullshitting), then it really will be intriguing to see what happens next.

I'm betting on this ceasefire being simply ignored.

Not sure how trustworthy the Cihan News Agency is, but it seems we now have the practical price of the UAE joining Saudia's war in Yemen: They get a 99-year lease on the island of Socotra.

Considering Hadi's regime won't last 99 years, I wonder if whatever succeeds it will honor that agreement or if the UAE will use it as the basis for a formal annexation...

Assad states that he will conquer all of Syria back- "it will take a long time".

Meanwhile the Saudis say that they will remove Assad, the day after confirming their desire to send soldiers into Syria.

Iranian casualties seem to be the heaviest so far this month- 41 dead by day 10 of February, including at least two generals.

edited 12th Feb '16 10:01:41 AM by Nihlus1

And the chinless wonder continues to be deluded.

I swear that guy is the dumbest and most useless murderous piece of shit since Pol Pot kicked the bucket.

I am sort of wishing him to try it. Either he'll bleed Russia and Iran dry until they "offer" him political "asylum" or they'll "ask" him to recant.

Russia and Iran aren't stupid enough (and Assad doesn't have enough leverage to make them) to go along with that plan. Both have good relations with the Kurds and won't let Assad muck it up by pie in the sky planning. I'm curious to see if he tries to repeat that rhetoric after today, since even talking about it might give Russians problems with the SDF.

Of course, if his definition of what is Syria has changed, then it might not be as big of a comment as it seems. If he means west of the river, that is plausible, though still difficult.

Well, the quote that was mentioned in our local news was clearly about the entirety of Syria.

Then like I said: Russia and Iran will veto him.

He might count retaking the entire country as getting the entire country to agree to his continued rule. In that case he'd have little problem with the Kurds. I hate to say, but the Chinless wonder has not only proved himself an idiot, but he has just about wrapped this thing up.

The Syrian Kurds will, at best, agree to confederation. And even that might go out the window if the Iraqi Kurds declare independance.

Assad is not positioned to be irreplaceable. His people continue to follow because the war has not stopped yet, but once it does, there is nothing keeping them from forcing his retirement.

The Guardian reports loopholes in the ceasefire agreement. Well, looks like we know what Russia's going to do now: declare everyone we bomb and/or the SAA shoots a terrorist and abuse the fact that it's borderline impossible to prove us wrong with such a degree of integration between the moderate rebels and the Islamists.

edited 12th Feb '16 1:53:46 PM by KnitTie

Its k. Bombs fix everything. So I am told.

The 'Murrica is strong in this one.

Gosh durn make me git yer ol smith n wesson here to giv yer rooskie ass some boot if y'all know whats good fer yer

HI HO SILVER AWAAAAYYYYYYY -eats burger and drinks beer at the same time, riding into the sunset-

BROUGHT TO YOU BY COCA COLA

It will take Assad a long time to retake the west, if he ever can, western Syria consists of 10 provinces, effectively 9 once you take out Quneitra, I'm going though them.

• Assad has control over the two costal ones (though a rebel pocket appears to remain in Latakia), Suwayda seems to also be under his control.
• Damascus, Hama and Homs seem to still have small rebel pockets that Assad has failed to deal with (plus ISIS out east in the desert of all three).
• Aleppo is carved up well beyond the city of Aleppo itself, the Kurdish territory in Aleppo is something Assad will never get back, so he may loose half of Aleppo is the Kurds are fast/rebel groups defect for protection.
• Daraa is contested still, Assad has made gains but it's still 50-50 and if Assad's record at gaining full control is anything to go by he'll never manage to eliminate the final pockets of rebel territory.
• Then there's Idlib, where Assad has nothing but a small pocket of territory.

So out of the 13 provinces of Syria: 1 is control by Israel, 1 is 50-50 with Assad gaining, 1 is almost totally under rebel control, 1 is contested between 4 groups and Assad can't fight one of thouse groups, 3 are out east and beyond Assad's reach, 3 are fully under Assad's control and 3 are pretty much under Assad's control but have holdouts.

That's not looking like a win to me, not even in the west.

Personally, I used to be skeptical with regards to the SAA's ability to retake all of Western Syria as well, but it seems that Russia's air campaign is a major game changer here. Now I'm slowly moving over to Shinra's side.

edited 12th Feb '16 2:53:45 PM by KnitTie

The airstrikes were helpful, but the real game changer was Iran sending thousands of its own troops and proxy militias to Syria. That's why Iran took more casualties in the last four months than in four years before that. Despite both of these things, I still think Assad simply lacks the manpower to put those regions back under his control, and that's before we consider the inevitable insurgency.

Unless, of course, Iran invests even more than they're investing now.

edited 12th Feb '16 3:04:07 PM by Nihlus1

They're ethnically cleansing areas that are sympathetic to the rebellion, so I doubt an insurgency would last for long (and if it did, it'd probably be primarily a cross-border situation.

Latakia is coming under Assad's full control. Only reason it isn't already is because of this Aleppo offensive, but even with that Assad is still gaining toward Jisr al-Shigour.

The pockets in Hama, Homs, and Damascus are being starved out. If those areas get Aleppo or Latakia level of focus, they won't stand up.

Suwaida and Tartus are already with Assad as Silas says.

Daraa is not getting too much focus, but what little focus they are getting (like with Sheikh Maksin) is going Assad's way.

Daesh won't remain in control of the territory in southern Syria once they are cut off from Raqqa, which seems to be the next item on the list.

Aleppo is up in the air. Idlib seems to be the only safe area for rebels right now.

Momentum is with Assad, and the rebels have little morale, little support, at this point.

On the subject of whether Assad can hold it, it depends on what "it" is. I don't think Russia and Iran will allow him to govern it as he did before...they don't want to save his ass again.

But they'll still keep him on as their figurehead. To deny the US even the hint of a delusion of victory here. At least that's what I'd do if I were Putin or Ruhani. That or hold Assad's fall ransom to something I want, like say not deploying a Nato brigade to the Baltic's.