North Korea

I was thinking of higher ups such as generals and the like. I'd imagine someone like Kim would be more afraid of his inner circle than he would be of his populace.

His inner circle does not question him. There are no ifs.

Then what does the man hope to gain by these constant harryings?

You tell me. Nobody seems to know.

If he keeps doing this, the only thing thats going to happen is NK becoming a very poor, very crushed nation very VERY quickly.

ICBM's may be in development, but if they actually had any capacity to use them they'd be using them in the "sabre rattling" department a whole lot more.

The state of the North Korean economy and the declining quality of their military hardware will eventually lead to one or both of the following scenarios:

Their economy is a joke, has been for decades. But what if it degrades further? They then can't keep up the masquerade to the population that their Juche (self-reliance) philosphy is still viable. But, the military gets a larger food ration and all the good stuff, so a civilian overthrow of the government would be crushed terribly - they have a horrific track record with human rights violations, so I easily see a peasant uprising being smashed without a second thought.

Or - their military forces become totally unsustainable. It's common knowledge that they have a mostly obsolete military force, with much WWII-era equipment still in active service, along with a lot of early adn mid-ear Cold War equipment, tanks, artillery, and aircraft. They have montains of this equipment and supplies, but with the fact that spare parts, live ammunition, fuel and other consumables are in critical shortages, they will eventually reach a point where they cannot maintain the illusion (to themselves) that they are in control of the situation. Might see a regime change or some upset within the country at that point.

So. I see two outcomes. The country decides they have nothing left to lose and goes for an all out war, or they collapse within themselves and might disintigrate into an all-out war anyway.

Any thoughts on what I said? I am not under any illusions that I know everything - but sufice to say, the situation there cannot be sustained indefinitely. Something will eventually give and I doubt that it will give way peaceafully.

I think both are likely. Considering how freaking huge their armed forces are, and how they can't keep up the good food for EVERYONE in the army, I wouldn't be suprised to see the army devour itself.

edited 23rd Nov '10 9:33:18 AM by JosefBugman

Well the situation is not good and I think the handover of power to Kim Jong Il's son is being done by recreating the fear of western invasion. Once they have a sufficient boogey man (afterall, the North Koreans probably were told of a South attack and they retaliated with shelling an island) then they top clique will believe the son's reign will be secure and the propaganda will die down.

In the long run, they'll likely just collapse. They aren't seeking a hot war, all those actiosn you describe merely continue a cold war. The South and USA are unlikely to launch a full military invasion over single incidents like that. However, it is a risky game where if they go too far, it goes into an all out war and their country gets destroyed.

China hasn't been "silent", they just prefer to go to closed door diplomatic meetings rather than really public ones. As for Obama, he's not a "joke" in foreign relations, he's been a fantastic boon to USA. I think, Major Tom, you mistake pissing everyone off in the world to gaining diplomatic leverage. However, to put things into context, what is it that people can expect China to do?

I saw a lot of comments about "China better drop their asses". How have they been holding it up? China's greatest fear is a massive breakout of war in the region and all their actions have been to either stall aggression or ward it off. War there would be terror for China in terms of economic damage and mass refuguee influx. They already get thousands of north korean refugees each year seeking religious freedom. The only choices China has are the same ones as South Korea: cut off food aid or declare war. It's not much of a choice.

^^^ The WW 2 era stuff is still a danger however.

Take the T-34 SPAAG variant with dual 37mm autocannon. It's a very real danger against any helicopter forces (and NK is believed to have at least some) even things like the Apache. A single hit would down most utility craft like a Chinook or Blackhawk if hit in the engine or main rotor. It would break through the cockpit of an Apache and several hits are likely to down one. The A-10 also has a genuine threat out of it, though admittedly direct hits on one are very likely to be survived.

Worse if the North Koreans use them like we did the M42 Duster in Vietnam, they make for devastatingly powerful anti-infantry/anti light vehicle platforms. We got good body armor but a direct hit or near miss from a 37mm anti-aircraft gun is gonna either kill you quickly or hurt like hell. Worse the 37mm would destroy stuff like Strykers, Humvees and other light equipment. The Bradley could shrug off such munitions for a few hits anyways. (The rounds would probably bounce off the Abrams literally.)

ZPU-4 and ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns also chew up infantry and light vehicles in addition to being very good helicopter killers. Sure they are both very weak against the A-10 but hey.

Just because it's old doesn't mean it's worthless on the battlefield. (The M2 Browning .50 cal proves that.)

edited 23rd Nov '10 9:44:26 AM by MajorTom

The only choices China has are the same ones as South Korea: cut off food aid or declare war.

What do you mean by that?

As for Obama, he's not a "joke" in foreign relations, he's been a fantastic boon to USA.

Then why is North Korea more defiant than ever? Why is Iran not serious about coming to talks about their stuff? Why is Russia laughing their asses off the whole time?

Simple, it's because he is a joke. Had North Korea done the events of the last 2 years in the early Bush-era they would have been crushed and the issue long since resolved.

North Korea's and Iran's current activity does not correlate with President Obama's foreign policy.

Speaking of which, for all this talk about war with Korea, we need to ask a few simple questions that, in my surprise, haven't been addressed.

1. What does North Korea have to gain from fighting South Korea?

2. What does North Korea have to gain from fighting the United States?

3. Should we even be discussing this matter in detail when we have very little information on the subject at hand? Within hours of 9/11, people were already drawing all kinds of speculations such as the belief that the Cubans hijacked the plane, that it was a freak accident, etc. Speculation is fine, but I caution everyone to be careful about how far you all go with your theories.

edited 23rd Nov '10 9:57:02 AM by Aprilla

It isn't being helped by it either in the sense of defusing tensions. But that's for another topic.

edited 23rd Nov '10 9:55:36 AM by MajorTom

^^^Along with Gods know how many dead.

edited 23rd Nov '10 9:55:52 AM by GameChainsaw

Moreover, both of those problems were pretty much as they are under Bush.

Bush would have drawn the Chinese into fighting alongside the North Koreans, thus touching off World War III.

Yeah, there's been issues with Iran and North Korea for decades, Obama can't be expected to magically poof them away.

edited 23rd Nov '10 10:04:26 AM by Scisless

^^Assuming even Bush was that impetuous.

edited 23rd Nov '10 10:01:45 AM by GameChainsaw

@Game Chainsaw: I'd estimate a military conflict in North Korea would entail between 800,000 and 2,000,000 KIA for North Korea probably more. The vast majority being military casualties owing to their numerous capacity. US/SK casualties would probably be between 5,000-60,000 KIA largely military casualties total between both. Possibly more depending on if Chinese intervention occurs.

It wouldn't be a walk in the park type war as we saw in Desert Storm in 1991 or Operation: Enduring Freedom in 2003 either way.

edited 23rd Nov '10 10:03:00 AM by MajorTom

Bloody hell... those are some casualty figures.

So, whats the plan? Bottle the regime up until it implodes under its own weight?

Operation Enduring Freedom wasn't exactly milk and cookies, either, but I get the point you're trying to make, even if I don't agree with your premise, Tom.

Those KIA estimates would probably be a bit lower - maybe much lower - depending on any given nation's use of mid-range electronic warfare protocols (high-intensity kinetic operations, too) and a stable intelligence management system, neither of which North Korea has at the moment.

@Game Chainsaw: The plan is to not get into a shooting war with China.

@70 It's working so far. They won't last another decade at this rate.

edited 23rd Nov '10 10:09:27 AM by mikefrombrooklyn

Given the increasingly hostile tensions, war is inevitable. There will be a shooting war long before they collapse internally.

This is not the Soviet Union we're talking about. They are much more bottled up and paranoid than that.

But the question I'm asking is war with WHO? Tom, I agree with you that war is inevitable, and I'll even correct you in saying that war between North Korea and other national entities has been going on for quite some time. But we're getting into the geopolitical semantics behind the definition of "war", so that's a different issue all together.