Spoilers will be left unmarked, due to Too Dumb to Live being in full effect.
Just because personality reigns supreme over strategy in Mario's ideal All-Stars doesn't mean there isn't a boneheaded move here or there...
Hawaii (2008 rewrite)
- Lex is a very paranoid individual, and wants trustworthy allies. He recruits 4 people, but that won't be enough to keep him safe, so he considers adding Colleen Haskell as his fifth.
You'd Expect: He make the deal right away, so the troublemakers on his tribe won't get to her.
Instead: He rather arrogantly assumes Colleen is a free vote for him later since he sees himself as the good guy, and waits until directly before a vote to try to talk to her (letting her know she's not a very valuable alliance member to her).
As A Result: Colleen is swayed to Rob's side because he made a deal with her... and actually talked to her earlier. Lex never has the strong five he hoped for, and is taken out by Rob's alliance later. - In episode 5, a twist has sent Lex's ally John, and Lex's enemy Colleen on a reward, which is suspected to be a potential twist. Problem is, Lex realizes there's a chance he'll be outnumbered if those two are replaced by Keko members.
You'd Expect: Lex to make a deal with Vecepia, who will do anything to keep herself alive.
Instead: He makes a deal with Rob, who he flat-out admits he can't trust.
Even Worse: He tells Rob he can replace John in his alliance, letting Rob know John is on the bottom of his alliance.
As A Result: Rob betrays him the second he gets a chance, recruiting John and sending him home. - The Keko Tribe must make one last vote before the game is ended. Unbeknownst to Mike and Colby, the girls are about to send one of them packing, and they start to realize this before the vote.
You'd Expect: They make a pitch to their alliance members Gretchen and Alicia, hoping they'll stay loyal to them. Then they vote out the outsider, Kathy.
Instead: They try to vote Gretchen out, betraying her.
As A Result: They're the next two gone when the girls all flip on them. - Boston Rob is extremely concerned about his standing in the game. It's the final 9, but Rob realizes that Frank and Tina will likely vote against him at the final 8, forcing a tie in which he will go home.
You'd Expect: Rob makes a deal with a Keko to prevent Tina and Frank from being able to force a tie.
Instead: Rob eliminates Frank, further ensuring that Tina will force a tie at the final 8, and tells Alicia to vote with him without making her an ally in any way. He then comes up with a convoluted plan to have Colleen make a deal with Tina to prevent her from flipping, which fails for a number of reasons.
As A Result: A tie is forced, as Tina and Alicia both vote Rob out. - The normally smart Ahis make a rather large error at the final six. John and Vecepia learn that Colleen was about to betray them, and only due to Alicia's defecting will they all continue being in the majority. Now it's Vecepia, John, Tina, and Alicia in the majority against Gretchen and Colleen.
You'd Expect: Since Gretchen is apparently a strategic force to be reckoned with (something none of them realized until just now), has a grudge against every remaining Ahi member, is a lock to get several jury votes if she makes it far enough, and a is threat to win challenges, you'd expect that they would thus leave the unthreatening Colleen around since she has no chance at winning the game by this point, having betrayed almost everyone, and isn't particularly good in challenges.
Instead: They leave Gretchen around and vote out Colleen, with the flimsy justification that Alicia has less ties to Gretchen by this point, despite them being former allies.
As A Result: Gretchen manages to sway Alicia back to her side temporarily, win two immunities, and comes one challenge away from winning the game. It's only due to Gretchen's unexpected choices that Vecepia survives the final 4 vote, and only due to an injury that she loses the last challenge.
Alaska
- Amarok has just lost immunity. Gina, Elizabeth, and Neleh are all close friends and plan to send Jerri home. Kelley Wigglesworth has decided to vote for Helen without telling anyone, and refuses to strategize like last time. As such, there will effectively be 7 votes in play tonight.
You'd Expect: They get a fourth vote to keep themselves safe, potentially by making an offer to Helen or Kelley Goldsmith (Who feel unsafe). Maybe even both. You'd especially expect Neleh (Who got to second place in Marquesas by forming a majority alliance), and Gina (who had her allies taken out by an early-formed alliance in Marquesas) to realize the importance of this.
Instead: They all assume no strategizing will happen in this happy-go-lucky camp, and don't do so.
As A Result: Tammy and Kelley Goldsmith decide to take out Neleh. Jerri and Helen join in to avoid being voted out, and Neleh goes out by one vote.
Greece
- Diane Ogden had a rather slow painful downfall, earned by her own strange decisions.
- Gabriel Cade and Diane Ogden have been chosen to draft tribes. Unfortunately for Diane Ogden, she is notoriously weak in challenges.
You'd Expect: Diane to draft some athletes to help her tribe stay strong, and then draft some allies to keep herself in the game.
Instead: She drafts her allies first, most of whom are weak in challenges.
As A Result: Gabe drafts most of the athletes for his first few picks. Diane's tribe proceeds to lose challenges repeatedly. - Diane now has a fairly weak tribe, but one full of friends. Like the first vote of Alaska mentioned above, one member of the tribe (Dirk) plans to cast his vote onto someone who will not be voted out, meaning only 7 of the votes cast tonight will matter.
You'd Expect: She get a majority alliance of at least four people together ASAP to keep herself safe.
Instead: She buddies up with two of her friends from Survivor: Africa, and forms a three-person alliance.
You'd Then Expect: She recruit Jessie, who was also from that season.
Instead: She and her alliance actively shun Jessie, seeing her as lazy despite her challenge strength.
You'd Expect: Diane's alliance at least vote together to try to send someone home. That is one of the perks of having an alliance after all.
Instead: They all vote separately.
As A Final Result: The rest of the tribe sees Diane's alliance as a threat and targets them. Diane's alliance-member and friend Linda is voted out. - So now Diane and Carl are at the bottom of the tribe.
You'd Expect: They strategize to save themselves.
Instead: Carl antagonizes everyone.
As A Result: Carl and Diane are voted out.
- Gabriel Cade and Diane Ogden have been chosen to draft tribes. Unfortunately for Diane Ogden, she is notoriously weak in challenges.
Okinawa
- In episode 3, the tribes are switched around and Kamiya gains three Satos. Despite the fact that all three of them are slated to be voted out regardless Ryan comes up with a plan to systematically bully the Satos with elaborate acting.
You'd Expect: Michelle and Mike to think twice about blindly listening to Ryan's advice, particularly since it consists of what is effectively bullying.
Instead: They go through with it, and are shocked when the Satos don't take it well.
As A Result: Ryan places himself in prime position to betray them both and look like the good guy for doing so. - Matt is offered a deal by Isabella, but instead opts to betray her trust to everyone. She saves him from certain elimination at the next vote anyways.
You'd Expect: Matt try to mend his bridges with Isabella, or at least not do what he does next.
Instead: Matt rallies everyone to take Isabella out.
You'd Then Expect: He do this after making sure Isabella can even be voted out, given half the cast could be immune at the next vote.
Instead: He does this before the challenge.
As A Result: Isabella wins immunity and Matt is taken out instead. - Lance and Amy aren't happy when Hogan flips on them to avoid rocks, but they still want to keep Hogan in the game even after winning immunity. The majority alliance is ready to vote out Mike instead of Hogan at the final 7 however.
You'd Expect: The Satos take this golden opportunity to take Mike out, and potentially get back in the game by bring Hogan back to their side later on.
Instead: Lance comes up with an elaborate plan to vote for Michelle and get her eliminated instead. This plan completely relies on the Kamiyans all voting for Mike.
As A Result: Isabella convinces her team to spare Mike and take out Hogan. Had Lance not enacted this plan, Mike would have been eliminated instead, due to the way the vote was split. Lance is eliminated next. - At the final 3, Mike is left floored after Isabella forces a tie against him and his only ally is eliminated. That said, no one on the jury particularly likes Isabella, and almost everyone on the jury likes Amy. This is very public information.
You'd Expect: He call Isabella out on being a huge liar, and bring her to the end, hopefully beating her.
Instead: He declares that Isabella has no honor, and that he will vote her out at the final 3. Then he votes Amy out instead.
As A Result: He sets himself up to be eviscerated in front of the jury and looks like a hypocrite to most of them. Had there not been so much (unrelated) prejudice against Isabella, he could have cost himself the game right there.
