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* Prior to the 1916 presidential election, most pundits thought President UsefulNotes/WoodrowWilson would be soundly defeated by Republican challenger Charles Evans Hughes. Wilson's previous win in 1912 amidst a badly split Republican Party was thought to be a fluke, and the reunified Republicans expected it would be easy to unseat him. Early returns were favorable for Hughes, with a near-sweep of the Northeast, and he went to bed believing that he had won the election. The western states reversed this trend and tightened the race, and by Thursday night California had pushed Wilson over the top in the [[UsefulNotes/AmericanPoliticalSystem Electoral College]]. An apocryphal account states a reporter called to ask Hughes for his reaction and was told by a servant "The President-elect has retired and does not wish to be disturbed." To which the reporter said, "When the President-elect is available, please tell him that he is not the President-elect." This incident is depicted in the 1944 film ''{{Film/Wilson}}''.
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* Prior to the The 1916 presidential election, election was the ''Dewey vs. Truman'' before ''Dewey vs. Truman'', with most pundits thought thinking President UsefulNotes/WoodrowWilson would be soundly defeated by Republican challenger Charles Evans Hughes. Wilson's previous win in 1912 amidst a badly split Republican Party was thought to be a fluke, and the reunified Republicans expected it would be easy to unseat him. Early returns were favorable for Hughes, with a near-sweep of the Northeast, and he went to bed believing that he had won the election. The western states reversed this trend and tightened the race, and by Thursday night California had pushed Wilson over the top in the [[UsefulNotes/AmericanPoliticalSystem Electoral College]]. An apocryphal account states a reporter called to ask Hughes for his reaction and was told by a servant "The President-elect has retired and does not wish to be disturbed." To which the reporter said, "When the President-elect is available, please tell him that he is not the President-elect." This incident is depicted in the 1944 film ''{{Film/Wilson}}''.
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* A non-voting example: in the lead up to the 1988 vice presidential debate, there was a general expectation that the Republican nominee, Senator UsefulNotes/DanQuayle, would [[https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-debate-quayle-bentsen-20161004-snap-story.html mop the floor]] with the Democratic nominee, Senator Lloyd Bentsen. 41-year-old Quayle was charismatic, photogenic, and full of quips; while Bentsen, 67, was anything but, and reportedly wanted to skip the debate out of fear of being outshined by Quayle. During the debate, Quayle compared himself to UsefulNotes/JohnFKennedy and Bentsen delivered his infamous put-down, [[PretenderDiss "I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."]] The media agreed that the debate was a disaster for Quayle and this line was pretty much the ''only'' thing that anyone took away from it. (This didn't affect the outcome much, and the Bush/Quayle ticket won in a landslide.)
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* A non-voting example: in the lead up to the 1988 vice presidential debate, there was a general expectation that the Republican nominee, Senator UsefulNotes/DanQuayle, would [[https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-debate-quayle-bentsen-20161004-snap-story.html mop the floor]] with the Democratic nominee, Senator Lloyd Bentsen. The 41-year-old Quayle was charismatic, photogenic, and full of quips; while Bentsen, 67, was anything but, and reportedly wanted to skip the debate out of fear of being outshined by Quayle. During the debate, Quayle compared himself to UsefulNotes/JohnFKennedy and Bentsen delivered his infamous put-down, [[PretenderDiss "I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."]] The media agreed that the debate was a disaster for Quayle and this line was pretty much the ''only'' thing that anyone took away from it. (This didn't affect the outcome much, and the Bush/Quayle ticket won in a landslide.)
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** 2018 had a few Cantorings. In New York's 14th district, Joe Crowley was one of the top-ranking Democrats in Congress and had been frequently mentioned as a potential speaker should his party regain control of the House. Crowley had served for ten terms and never had to compete in a primary until Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old bartender and Democratic Socialist running her first campaign, challenged him. Crowley didn't perceive her as a threat-- the [[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/27/nyregion/ocasio-cortez-crowley-primary-upset.html only available polling]] showed him 36 points ahead. In the end it wasn't even close, Ocasio-Cortez won by a comfortable 15% margin in what the media referred to as a [[https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/26/politics/joe-crowley-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-new-york-upset/index.html "titanic upset"]], and Crowley couldn't concede because his campaign never bothered to ask for her phone number. This set the stage for another longtime establishment figure in the Democratic Party, UsefulNotes/{{Boston}}'s Mike Capuano, to be ousted by Ayanna Pressley in a [[https://www.wbur.org/news/2018/08/02/wbur-poll-capuano-pressley-7th-district similar upset]] after polls had her trailing by [[https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/09/04/capuano-pressley-count-experience-support-win-primary/BexLGYivjWMnwv4jaYTC1N/story.html double-digits]] less than a month out.
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** 2018 had a few Cantorings. In New York's 14th district, Joe Crowley was one of the top-ranking Democrats in Congress and had been frequently mentioned as a potential speaker should his party regain control of the House. Crowley had served for ten terms and never had to compete in a primary until Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old bartender and Democratic Socialist running her first campaign, challenged him. Crowley didn't perceive her as a threat-- the [[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/27/nyregion/ocasio-cortez-crowley-primary-upset.html only available polling]] showed him 36 points ahead. In the end it wasn't even close, Ocasio-Cortez won by a comfortable 15% margin in what the media referred to as a [[https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/26/politics/joe-crowley-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-new-york-upset/index.html "titanic upset"]], and Crowley couldn't concede because his campaign never bothered to ask for her phone number. This set the stage for another longtime establishment figure in the Democratic Party, UsefulNotes/{{Boston}}'s Mike Capuano, to be ousted by Ayanna Pressley in a [[https://www.wbur.org/news/2018/08/02/wbur-poll-capuano-pressley-7th-district similar upset]] after polls had her trailing by [[https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/09/04/capuano-pressley-count-experience-support-win-primary/BexLGYivjWMnwv4jaYTC1N/story.html similar upset]] after polls had her trailing by [[https://www.wbur.org/news/2018/08/02/wbur-poll-capuano-pressley-7th-district double-digits]] less than a month out.
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** In 2017, after the Republicans gained control of the presidency, Senate, and House, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch [=McConnell=] tried unsuccessfully several times to pass an Obamacare repeal bill that appealed to both moderates and conservatives in the party. In July 2017 his party drafted what the media referred to as a "skinny repeal" bill that would repeal key parts of Obamacare and had seemingly secured enough votes to pass it, as only moderate Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski publicly opposed the bill, and a 50-50 tie would be broken by Vice President Mike Pence who would pass it. During the floor vote Sen. John [=McCain=] unexpectedly voted against the bill, causing it to fail 51-49.
* The 2016 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin featured incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson in a rematch with former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, whom he had defeated in 2010. Johnson had low approval ratings, no Republican had won a senate race in Wisconsin in a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980[[note]]Wisconsin had only voted Republican for President once since when Reagan won a 49-state landslide; Class 2 of the Senate, which Wisconsin wasn't part of, was up that year[[/note]] and after the GOP took control of the Senate in the 2014 elections the Wisconsin race became a top target for Democrats hoping to regain a majority. Feingold led by large margins in the polls and throughout the year, and most regarded Wisconsin as a safe pick up for the Democrats, with even Republicans thinking that their resources would be better used elsewhere, and cancelled over [[https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/johnson-feingold-wisconsin-senate-race-2016-election-results-231027 $2 million in ad buys]] for Johnson. In September, [[http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-the-map-favors-democrats-ever-so-slightly/ FiveThirtyEight]] referred to the contest as "[seeming as] close to a sure thing for Democrats" and gave Feingold a 94% chance of winning. In October, however, Johnson started to close the gap, but most polls and pundits still favored Feingold. On Election Day, to the surprise of almost everyone, Johnson ended up defeating Feingold by nearly 4% as Trump made a similar shocking victory.
* The 2016 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin featured incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson in a rematch with former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, whom he had defeated in 2010. Johnson had low approval ratings, no Republican had won a senate race in Wisconsin in a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980[[note]]Wisconsin had only voted Republican for President once since when Reagan won a 49-state landslide; Class 2 of the Senate, which Wisconsin wasn't part of, was up that year[[/note]] and after the GOP took control of the Senate in the 2014 elections the Wisconsin race became a top target for Democrats hoping to regain a majority. Feingold led by large margins in the polls and throughout the year, and most regarded Wisconsin as a safe pick up for the Democrats, with even Republicans thinking that their resources would be better used elsewhere, and cancelled over [[https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/johnson-feingold-wisconsin-senate-race-2016-election-results-231027 $2 million in ad buys]] for Johnson. In September, [[http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-the-map-favors-democrats-ever-so-slightly/ FiveThirtyEight]] referred to the contest as "[seeming as] close to a sure thing for Democrats" and gave Feingold a 94% chance of winning. In October, however, Johnson started to close the gap, but most polls and pundits still favored Feingold. On Election Day, to the surprise of almost everyone, Johnson ended up defeating Feingold by nearly 4% as Trump made a similar shocking victory.
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** In 2017, after the Republicans gained control of the presidency, Senate, and House, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch [=McConnell=] tried unsuccessfully several times to pass an Obamacare repeal bill that appealed to both moderates and conservatives in the party. In July 2017 his party drafted what the media referred to as a "skinny repeal" bill that would repeal key parts of Obamacare and had seemingly secured enough votes to pass it, as only moderate Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski publicly opposed the bill, and a 50-50 tie would be broken by Vice President Mike Pence who would pass it. During the floor vote vote, Sen. John [=McCain=] unexpectedly voted against the bill, causing it to fail 51-49.
* The 2016 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin featured incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson in a rematch with former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, whom he had defeated in 2010. Johnson had low approval ratings, no Republican had won asenate Senate race in Wisconsin in a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980[[note]]Wisconsin had only voted Republican for President once since when Reagan won a 49-state landslide; Class 2 of the Senate, which Wisconsin wasn't part of, was up that year[[/note]] and after the GOP took control of the Senate in the 2014 elections the Wisconsin race became a top target for Democrats hoping to regain a majority. Feingold led by large margins in the polls and throughout the year, and most regarded Wisconsin as a safe pick up for the Democrats, with even Republicans thinking Democrats. Even the Republican Senatorial Committee thought that their resources would be better used elsewhere, and cancelled over [[https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/johnson-feingold-wisconsin-senate-race-2016-election-results-231027 $2 million in ad buys]] for Johnson. In September, [[http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-the-map-favors-democrats-ever-so-slightly/ FiveThirtyEight]] referred to the contest as "[seeming as] close to a sure thing for Democrats" and gave Feingold a 94% chance of winning. In October, however, Johnson started to close the gap, but most polls and pundits still favored Feingold. On Election Day, to the surprise of almost everyone, Johnson ended up defeating Feingold by nearly 4% as Trump made a similar shocking victory.
* The 2016 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin featured incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson in a rematch with former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, whom he had defeated in 2010. Johnson had low approval ratings, no Republican had won a
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* In the 2009 Israeli national elections, the Kadima party assumed victory since they won the most seats, one seat more than the runner-up Likud party. However, since Israel uses a parliamentary system, the winning party is required to form a coalition government made up of the majority of the parliament. Kadima was unable to do so, since the smaller parties were aligned with the Likud, leaving Likud the actual winner.
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* During the elections for the new pope in 2013, many of the Italian cardinals assumed Milan Archbishop Angelo Scola would be picked, and had already sent him letters of congratulation when it was revealed that Argentinian Jorge Bergoglio was picked instead.
** And on the subject of papal elections: "A man who enters the conclave as pope will often leave it as [a] cardinal". Cardinals have historically tended to react poorly to a fellow cardinal being so crass as to campaign for the role of pope, let alone being so arrogant as to think their victory is assured.
* Tony Abbott's first attempt at a Federal election in Australia. Some time during the live count, the entire party was celebrating what looked like an insurmountable lead. As it turned out, both major parties tied for seats won -- and the independents who won the remaining seats chose to favour Julia Gillard's party, giving her the win.
* Australia later had a famous example with the 2019 Federal Election. The reigning Liberal Coalition had been behind in the polls for years prior, and nearly every opinion poll agreed that it wasn't a question of ''if'' they would lose the election, but ''by how much'', with the Liberal campaign considered to more be about making their inevitable defeat less of a bloodbath. Come election day, not only did the Liberals win, they won by a ''huge'' margin, taking their government from a Minority to a Majority, in a result that nearly ''inverted'' the predicted one. Prime Minister Scott Morison even described it as a "miracle" in his victory speech. The failure of the opinion polls was generally chalked up to the [[TechnologyMarchesOn changes in telephone habits]], with the ensuing drop in response rates leading to poor quality data.
** And on the subject of papal elections: "A man who enters the conclave as pope will often leave it as [a] cardinal". Cardinals have historically tended to react poorly to a fellow cardinal being so crass as to campaign for the role of pope, let alone being so arrogant as to think their victory is assured.
* Tony Abbott's first attempt at a Federal election in Australia. Some time during the live count, the entire party was celebrating what looked like an insurmountable lead. As it turned out, both major parties tied for seats won -- and the independents who won the remaining seats chose to favour Julia Gillard's party, giving her the win.
* Australia later had a famous example with the 2019 Federal Election. The reigning Liberal Coalition had been behind in the polls for years prior, and nearly every opinion poll agreed that it wasn't a question of ''if'' they would lose the election, but ''by how much'', with the Liberal campaign considered to more be about making their inevitable defeat less of a bloodbath. Come election day, not only did the Liberals win, they won by a ''huge'' margin, taking their government from a Minority to a Majority, in a result that nearly ''inverted'' the predicted one. Prime Minister Scott Morison even described it as a "miracle" in his victory speech. The failure of the opinion polls was generally chalked up to the [[TechnologyMarchesOn changes in telephone habits]], with the ensuing drop in response rates leading to poor quality data.
* In the 2018 US House elections, Rep. David Valadao was up by over 7% on election night and the AP and most major media outlets declared him the winner. Three weeks later, after counting the large volume of absentee ballots, his opponent TJ Cox pulled ahead by a few hundred votes and the AP issued a rare retraction and declared Cox the winner. (Valadao would have the last laugh though, as he won the seat back in 2020 even as Joe Biden was easily winning it at the presidential level).
* Betsy Dirksen Londrigan was declared the winner of Illinois' 13th congressional district by CNN early on in election night. By the end of the night, they had to retract their projection after results showed it was still too close to call. Indeed, in the end, incumbent Rodney Davis narrowly held onto his seat.
* In 2019, longtime Democratic-aligned Wisconsin Judge Shirley Abrahamson announced she would retire after her term's expiration in April. The Democratic base rallied around Lisa Neubauer, who was supported by a large network of state and national left-wing organizations. The Republican was Brian Hagedorn, a little-known judge who conservative organizations were barely putting any effort into. After losing the election in the 2018 Supreme Court race by 10 points and all of their key statewide races during the November midterms, Wisconsin Republicans were demoralized and even they expected Neubauer to cruise to victory. Even a large realtor group who endorsed Hagedorn gave up on him about a month before the election due to concerns over some controversial views of his. Hagedorn was being outspent by about 14-to-1. What happened? The conservative base unexpectedly showed up. Many were outraged that Neubauer's supporters decided to use what could be perceived as anti-Christian rhetoric to argue against Hagedorn during the campaign[[note]]the Neubauer campaign was [[https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/02/14/wisconsin-court-candidate-founded-school-bans-gay-relations/2869447002/ actually commenting]] on his anti-LGBT positions and his leadership role in a Christian school with blatant anti-LGBT beliefs, but Hagedorn's campaign was quick to spin it as an attack on Christianity[[/note]]. Because of this, many decided to strike back against it and came out to support Hagedorn and drive him to a narrow victory.
* In late 2019, California congresswoman Katie Hill resigned after sexually explicit photos of her were leaked on the internet by her ex-boyfriend, and a special election was set up to fill the remainder of her term. Democrats quickly rallied by Assemblywoman Christy Smith, whose seat in the California State Assembly made up over half of the congressional district's population. The party was confident that, with the election coinciding with the Democratic presidential primary that March, she would get over 50% of the vote in the all-party primary and win the election outright. Unfortunately, those plans were complicated when ''The Young Turks'' host Cenk Uygur jumped into the race, and come March 3, he and several scattered Democrats caused Smith to fail to crack 40% of the vote. She was sent into a May runoff with Republican Navy veteran Mike Garcia, who edged out Hill's predecessor Steve Knight to win the seat. What was once considered a slam-dunk for Smith turned into a highly competitive race, and with the COVID-19 crisis beginning shortly afterwards, turnout was expected to be very low. The bottom fell out for Smith when she made a joke about Garcia's military service that alienated several voters in the military heavy district. Democratic turnout in the runoff was extremely low, as most Democratic voters were Latinos who rarely show up to the poll outside of November elections, and Garcia not only won, but he did so by nearly 10 percent margin.
* Virtually every prognosticator in 2018 expected Republican Rep. Steve Russell to easily hold onto his seat in UsefulNotes/{{Oklahoma|USA}}'s 5th congressional district--on average polls had him [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/oklahoma/5/ ahead by 13%]]. In the end, Kendra Horn, his Democratic challenger, tapped into anger at outgoing Republican Governor Mary Fallin's unpopular education policies, and a strong performance at the top of the ticket by gubernatorial nominee Drew Edmondson, to squeak out a 1-point win and becoming the first Democrat to represent the district since the 1970s.
** Zig-zagged in the 2020 Republican primary to take on Horn. Heading into round 1, State Senator Stephanie Bice was seen as nearly certain to be the first place finisher, with a good shot of winning the primary outright without the need for a runoff. However, Bice got forced into a runoff with businesswoman Terry Neese, and even more embarrassingly, came in second place with only 25%. Going into the August runoff, Neese was now considered a favorite to beat Bice, due to large levels of outside support from conservative organizations. However, shortly before the runoff, several scandals sunk Neese's support, and Bice came back and won by a six-point margin. Because of Bice's win, national Republicans feel a lot more confident that they would win the seat back than they would have with Neese---and indeed, they did.
* Done twice in UsefulNotes/SouthCarolina's 1st congressional district, based in the suburbs of Charleston, in the 2018 cycle. The seat had been held by former governor Mark Sanford since 2013, after Republican Tim Scott was appointed to the U.S. Senate (Sanford actually held the seat before he was governor). However, Sanford's libertarian politics made him quite unpopular with mainstream Republicans. In a primary that went completely under the radar, he lost renomination for the seat to state representative Katie Arrington, a staunch conservative. Given the fact that Trump carried the district by 13 points, it seemed that Arrington was well on her way to Congress. However, she proved to be a little too far to the right for suburbanites to handle, and she narrowly lost her bid to Joe Cunningham, who became the first Democrat to win the district since the 1980s.
* When UsefulNotes/JoeBiden first ran for the Senate in 1972 after only serving two years on the New Castle County Council, he won the Democratic nomination to face incumbent Republican Delaware Senator and former Governor J. Caleb Boggs because no other Democrat wanted to do so, believing they couldn't beat him. Biden had basically no funds, but in the closest Senate election that year, he won by a little more than 3,000 even as UsefulNotes/RichardNixon carried the state by 20 percentage points, becoming the youngest senator in that Congress, and held the seat for a further 36 years, until he resigned to become vice president.
* In 2022, Republican Joe Kent was expected to win UsefulNotes/{{Washington}}'s 3rd congressional district with polling aggregator ''[=FiveThirtyEight=]'' giving him a 98% chance of winning. However, Kent was ultimately defeated by Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by a 1.5 point margin, flipping a seat that Republicans previously held for 12 years. Many post-mortem reports, [[https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/marie-gluesenkamp-perezs-win-shows-why-republicans-flopped-this-fall/672110/?utm_source=feed including one by]] ''The Atlantic'', blamed Kent's loss on his extremist views, alignment with Donald Trump and peddling of electoral fraud conspiracies that drove voters to Perez. It didn't help that Republican voters ousted incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler in the jungle primary after she voted to impeach Trump following the 2021 Capitol Hill insurrection; given how Beutler was more moderate and won every election in the district since 2010, often by double-digit margins and even when outspent by Democrats, it's highly probable that she would've kept the district had she made it to the general election.
[[/folder]]
[[folder:UK and Commonwealth politics]]
* Tony Abbott's first attempt at a Federal election in Australia. Some time during the live count, the entire party was celebrating what looked like an insurmountable lead. As it turned out, both major parties tied for seats won -- and the independents who won the remaining seats chose to favour Julia Gillard's party, giving her the win.
* Australia later had a famous example with the 2019 Federal Election. The reigning Liberal Coalition had been behind in the polls for years prior, and nearly every opinion poll agreed that it wasn't a question of ''if'' they would lose the election, but ''by how much'', with the Liberal campaign considered to more be about making their inevitable defeat less of a bloodbath. Come election day, not only did the Liberals win, they won by a ''huge'' margin, taking their government from a Minority to a Majority, in a result that nearly ''inverted'' the predicted one. Prime Minister Scott Morison even described it as a "miracle" in his victory speech. The failure of the opinion polls was generally chalked up to the [[TechnologyMarchesOn changes in telephone habits]], with the ensuing drop in response rates leading to poor quality data.
* Betsy Dirksen Londrigan was declared the winner of Illinois' 13th congressional district by CNN early on in election night. By the end of the night, they had to retract their projection after results showed it was still too close to call. Indeed, in the end, incumbent Rodney Davis narrowly held onto his seat.
* In 2019, longtime Democratic-aligned Wisconsin Judge Shirley Abrahamson announced she would retire after her term's expiration in April. The Democratic base rallied around Lisa Neubauer, who was supported by a large network of state and national left-wing organizations. The Republican was Brian Hagedorn, a little-known judge who conservative organizations were barely putting any effort into. After losing the election in the 2018 Supreme Court race by 10 points and all of their key statewide races during the November midterms, Wisconsin Republicans were demoralized and even they expected Neubauer to cruise to victory. Even a large realtor group who endorsed Hagedorn gave up on him about a month before the election due to concerns over some controversial views of his. Hagedorn was being outspent by about 14-to-1. What happened? The conservative base unexpectedly showed up. Many were outraged that Neubauer's supporters decided to use what could be perceived as anti-Christian rhetoric to argue against Hagedorn during the campaign[[note]]the Neubauer campaign was [[https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/02/14/wisconsin-court-candidate-founded-school-bans-gay-relations/2869447002/ actually commenting]] on his anti-LGBT positions and his leadership role in a Christian school with blatant anti-LGBT beliefs, but Hagedorn's campaign was quick to spin it as an attack on Christianity[[/note]]. Because of this, many decided to strike back against it and came out to support Hagedorn and drive him to a narrow victory.
* In late 2019, California congresswoman Katie Hill resigned after sexually explicit photos of her were leaked on the internet by her ex-boyfriend, and a special election was set up to fill the remainder of her term. Democrats quickly rallied by Assemblywoman Christy Smith, whose seat in the California State Assembly made up over half of the congressional district's population. The party was confident that, with the election coinciding with the Democratic presidential primary that March, she would get over 50% of the vote in the all-party primary and win the election outright. Unfortunately, those plans were complicated when ''The Young Turks'' host Cenk Uygur jumped into the race, and come March 3, he and several scattered Democrats caused Smith to fail to crack 40% of the vote. She was sent into a May runoff with Republican Navy veteran Mike Garcia, who edged out Hill's predecessor Steve Knight to win the seat. What was once considered a slam-dunk for Smith turned into a highly competitive race, and with the COVID-19 crisis beginning shortly afterwards, turnout was expected to be very low. The bottom fell out for Smith when she made a joke about Garcia's military service that alienated several voters in the military heavy district. Democratic turnout in the runoff was extremely low, as most Democratic voters were Latinos who rarely show up to the poll outside of November elections, and Garcia not only won, but he did so by nearly 10 percent margin.
* Virtually every prognosticator in 2018 expected Republican Rep. Steve Russell to easily hold onto his seat in UsefulNotes/{{Oklahoma|USA}}'s 5th congressional district--on average polls had him [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/oklahoma/5/ ahead by 13%]]. In the end, Kendra Horn, his Democratic challenger, tapped into anger at outgoing Republican Governor Mary Fallin's unpopular education policies, and a strong performance at the top of the ticket by gubernatorial nominee Drew Edmondson, to squeak out a 1-point win and becoming the first Democrat to represent the district since the 1970s.
** Zig-zagged in the 2020 Republican primary to take on Horn. Heading into round 1, State Senator Stephanie Bice was seen as nearly certain to be the first place finisher, with a good shot of winning the primary outright without the need for a runoff. However, Bice got forced into a runoff with businesswoman Terry Neese, and even more embarrassingly, came in second place with only 25%. Going into the August runoff, Neese was now considered a favorite to beat Bice, due to large levels of outside support from conservative organizations. However, shortly before the runoff, several scandals sunk Neese's support, and Bice came back and won by a six-point margin. Because of Bice's win, national Republicans feel a lot more confident that they would win the seat back than they would have with Neese---and indeed, they did.
* Done twice in UsefulNotes/SouthCarolina's 1st congressional district, based in the suburbs of Charleston, in the 2018 cycle. The seat had been held by former governor Mark Sanford since 2013, after Republican Tim Scott was appointed to the U.S. Senate (Sanford actually held the seat before he was governor). However, Sanford's libertarian politics made him quite unpopular with mainstream Republicans. In a primary that went completely under the radar, he lost renomination for the seat to state representative Katie Arrington, a staunch conservative. Given the fact that Trump carried the district by 13 points, it seemed that Arrington was well on her way to Congress. However, she proved to be a little too far to the right for suburbanites to handle, and she narrowly lost her bid to Joe Cunningham, who became the first Democrat to win the district since the 1980s.
* When UsefulNotes/JoeBiden first ran for the Senate in 1972 after only serving two years on the New Castle County Council, he won the Democratic nomination to face incumbent Republican Delaware Senator and former Governor J. Caleb Boggs because no other Democrat wanted to do so, believing they couldn't beat him. Biden had basically no funds, but in the closest Senate election that year, he won by a little more than 3,000 even as UsefulNotes/RichardNixon carried the state by 20 percentage points, becoming the youngest senator in that Congress, and held the seat for a further 36 years, until he resigned to become vice president.
* In 2022, Republican Joe Kent was expected to win UsefulNotes/{{Washington}}'s 3rd congressional district with polling aggregator ''[=FiveThirtyEight=]'' giving him a 98% chance of winning. However, Kent was ultimately defeated by Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by a 1.5 point margin, flipping a seat that Republicans previously held for 12 years. Many post-mortem reports, [[https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/marie-gluesenkamp-perezs-win-shows-why-republicans-flopped-this-fall/672110/?utm_source=feed including one by]] ''The Atlantic'', blamed Kent's loss on his extremist views, alignment with Donald Trump and peddling of electoral fraud conspiracies that drove voters to Perez. It didn't help that Republican voters ousted incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler in the jungle primary after she voted to impeach Trump following the 2021 Capitol Hill insurrection; given how Beutler was more moderate and won every election in the district since 2010, often by double-digit margins and even when outspent by Democrats, it's highly probable that she would've kept the district had she made it to the general election.
[[/folder]]
[[folder:UK and Commonwealth politics]]
* Tony Abbott's first attempt at a Federal election in Australia. Some time during the live count, the entire party was celebrating what looked like an insurmountable lead. As it turned out, both major parties tied for seats won -- and the independents who won the remaining seats chose to favour Julia Gillard's party, giving her the win.
* Australia later had a famous example with the 2019 Federal Election. The reigning Liberal Coalition had been behind in the polls for years prior, and nearly every opinion poll agreed that it wasn't a question of ''if'' they would lose the election, but ''by how much'', with the Liberal campaign considered to more be about making their inevitable defeat less of a bloodbath. Come election day, not only did the Liberals win, they won by a ''huge'' margin, taking their government from a Minority to a Majority, in a result that nearly ''inverted'' the predicted one. Prime Minister Scott Morison even described it as a "miracle" in his victory speech. The failure of the opinion polls was generally chalked up to the [[TechnologyMarchesOn changes in telephone habits]], with the ensuing drop in response rates leading to poor quality data.
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* In the 2018 US House elections, Rep. David Valadao was up by over 7% on election night and the AP and most major media outlets declared him the winner. Three weeks later, after counting the large volume of absentee ballots, his opponent TJ Cox pulled ahead by a few hundred votes and the AP issued a rare retraction and declared Cox the winner. (Valadao would have the last laugh though, as he won the seat back in 2020 even as Joe Biden was easily winning it at the presidential level).
* Betsy Dirksen Londrigan was declared the winner of Illinois' 13th congressional district by CNN early on in election night. By the end of the night, they had to retract their projection after results showed it was still too close to call. Indeed, in the end, incumbent Rodney Davis narrowly held onto his seat.
* In 2019, longtime Democratic-aligned Wisconsin Judge Shirley Abrahamson announced she would retire after her term's expiration in April. The Democratic base rallied around Lisa Neubauer, who was supported by a large network of state and national left-wing organizations. The Republican was Brian Hagedorn, a little-known judge who conservative organizations were barely putting any effort into. After losing the election in the 2018 Supreme Court race by 10 points and all of their key statewide races during the November midterms, Wisconsin Republicans were demoralized and even they expected Neubauer to cruise to victory. Even a large realtor group who endorsed Hagedorn gave up on him about a month before the election due to concerns over some controversial views of his. Hagedorn was being outspent by about 14-to-1. What happened? The conservative base unexpectedly showed up. Many were outraged that Neubauer's supporters decided to use what could be perceived as anti-Christian rhetoric to argue against Hagedorn during the campaign[[note]]the Neubauer campaign was [[https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/02/14/wisconsin-court-candidate-founded-school-bans-gay-relations/2869447002/ actually commenting]] on his anti-LGBT positions and his leadership role in a Christian school with blatant anti-LGBT beliefs, but Hagedorn's campaign was quick to spin it as an attack on Christianity[[/note]]. Because of this, many decided to strike back against it and came out to support Hagedorn and drive him to a narrow victory.
* In late 2019, California congresswoman Katie Hill resigned after sexually explicit photos of her were leaked on the internet by her ex-boyfriend, and a special election was set up to fill the remainder of her term. Democrats quickly rallied by Assemblywoman Christy Smith, whose seat in the California State Assembly made up over half of the congressional district's population. The party was confident that, with the election coinciding with the Democratic presidential primary that March, she would get over 50% of the vote in the all-party primary and win the election outright. Unfortunately, those plans were complicated when ''The Young Turks'' host Cenk Uygur jumped into the race, and come March 3, he and several scattered Democrats caused Smith to fail to crack 40% of the vote. She was sent into a May runoff with Republican Navy veteran Mike Garcia, who edged out Hill's predecessor Steve Knight to win the seat. What was once considered a slam-dunk for Smith turned into a highly competitive race, and with the COVID-19 crisis beginning shortly afterwards, turnout was expected to be very low. The bottom fell out for Smith when she made a joke about Garcia's military service that alienated several voters in the military heavy district. Democratic turnout in the runoff was extremely low, as most Democratic voters were Latinos who rarely show up to the poll outside of November elections, and Garcia not only won, but he did so by nearly 10 percent margin.
* Virtually every prognosticator in 2018 expected Republican Rep. Steve Russell to easily hold onto his seat in UsefulNotes/{{Oklahoma|USA}}'s 5th congressional district--on average polls had him [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/oklahoma/5/ ahead by 13%]]. In the end, Kendra Horn, his Democratic challenger, tapped into anger at outgoing Republican Governor Mary Fallin's unpopular education policies, and a strong performance at the top of the ticket by gubernatorial nominee Drew Edmondson, to squeak out a 1-point win and becoming the first Democrat to represent the district since the 1970s.
** Zig-zagged in the 2020 Republican primary to take on Horn. Heading into round 1, State Senator Stephanie Bice was seen as nearly certain to be the first place finisher, with a good shot of winning the primary outright without the need for a runoff. However, Bice got forced into a runoff with businesswoman Terry Neese, and even more embarrassingly, came in second place with only 25%. Going into the August runoff, Neese was now considered a favorite to beat Bice, due to large levels of outside support from conservative organizations. However, shortly before the runoff, several scandals sunk Neese's support, and Bice came back and won by a six-point margin. Because of Bice's win, national Republicans feel a lot more confident that they would win the seat back than they would have with Neese---and indeed, they did.
* Done twice in UsefulNotes/SouthCarolina's 1st congressional district, based in the suburbs of Charleston, in the 2018 cycle. The seat had been held by former governor Mark Sanford since 2013, after Republican Tim Scott was appointed to the U.S. Senate (Sanford actually held the seat before he was governor). However, Sanford's libertarian politics made him quite unpopular with mainstream Republicans. In a primary that went completely under the radar, he lost renomination for the seat to state representative Katie Arrington, a staunch conservative. Given the fact that Trump carried the district by 13 points, it seemed that Arrington was well on her way to Congress. However, she proved to be a little too far to the right for suburbanites to handle, and she narrowly lost her bid to Joe Cunningham, who became the first Democrat to win the district since the 1980s.
* When UsefulNotes/JoeBiden first ran for the Senate in 1972 after only serving two years on the New Castle County Council, he won the Democratic nomination to face incumbent Republican Delaware Senator and former Governor J. Caleb Boggs because no other Democrat wanted to do so, believing they couldn't beat him. Biden had basically no funds, but in the closest Senate election that year, he won by a little more than 3,000 even as UsefulNotes/RichardNixon carried the state by 20 percentage points, becoming the youngest senator in that Congress, and held the seat for a further 36 years, until he resigned to become vice president.
* For Germany's 2021 federal election, the incumbent center-right [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] coalition party seemed poised to stay in power. Despite some setbacks like struggling to find a successor to the popular outgoing Chancellor UsefulNotes/AngelaMerkel, for much of 2021, the party held double-digit poll lead over their biggest rival, the center-left [=SPD=] party. Furthermore, their outlook was emboldened by both declining [=SPD=] membership and recent election losses by leftist parties in Europe. However, the election resulted in the [=SPD=] winning the most seats while the [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] suffered their worst defeat since ''1945''. After the forming a coalition with the Greens and [=FDP=], [=SPD=] leader Olaf Scholz became the new Chancellor and the [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] was relegated into an opposition block. While some attributed the [=SPD=]'s win to the party's policies, several voters chose [=SPD=] because they liked Scholz respectable and stable personality whereas [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] leader Armin Laschet was seen as elitist and aloof especially after he was caught on camera laughing at flooded towns.
* In 2022, Republican Joe Kent was expected to win UsefulNotes/{{Washington}}'s 3rd congressional district with polling aggregator ''[=FiveThirtyEight=]'' giving him a 98% chance of winning. However, Kent was ultimately defeated by Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by a 1.5 point margin, flipping a seat that Republicans previously held for 12 years. Many post-mortem reports, [[https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/marie-gluesenkamp-perezs-win-shows-why-republicans-flopped-this-fall/672110/?utm_source=feed including one by]] ''The Atlantic'', blamed Kent's loss on his extremist views, alignment with Donald Trump and peddling of electoral fraud conspiracies that drove voters to Perez. It didn't help that Republican voters ousted incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler in the jungle primary after she voted to impeach Trump following the 2021 Capitol Hill insurrection; given how Beutler was more moderate and won every election in the district since 2010, often by double-digit margins and even when outspent by Democrats, it's highly probable that she would've kept the district had she made it to the general election.
* Betsy Dirksen Londrigan was declared the winner of Illinois' 13th congressional district by CNN early on in election night. By the end of the night, they had to retract their projection after results showed it was still too close to call. Indeed, in the end, incumbent Rodney Davis narrowly held onto his seat.
* In 2019, longtime Democratic-aligned Wisconsin Judge Shirley Abrahamson announced she would retire after her term's expiration in April. The Democratic base rallied around Lisa Neubauer, who was supported by a large network of state and national left-wing organizations. The Republican was Brian Hagedorn, a little-known judge who conservative organizations were barely putting any effort into. After losing the election in the 2018 Supreme Court race by 10 points and all of their key statewide races during the November midterms, Wisconsin Republicans were demoralized and even they expected Neubauer to cruise to victory. Even a large realtor group who endorsed Hagedorn gave up on him about a month before the election due to concerns over some controversial views of his. Hagedorn was being outspent by about 14-to-1. What happened? The conservative base unexpectedly showed up. Many were outraged that Neubauer's supporters decided to use what could be perceived as anti-Christian rhetoric to argue against Hagedorn during the campaign[[note]]the Neubauer campaign was [[https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/02/14/wisconsin-court-candidate-founded-school-bans-gay-relations/2869447002/ actually commenting]] on his anti-LGBT positions and his leadership role in a Christian school with blatant anti-LGBT beliefs, but Hagedorn's campaign was quick to spin it as an attack on Christianity[[/note]]. Because of this, many decided to strike back against it and came out to support Hagedorn and drive him to a narrow victory.
* In late 2019, California congresswoman Katie Hill resigned after sexually explicit photos of her were leaked on the internet by her ex-boyfriend, and a special election was set up to fill the remainder of her term. Democrats quickly rallied by Assemblywoman Christy Smith, whose seat in the California State Assembly made up over half of the congressional district's population. The party was confident that, with the election coinciding with the Democratic presidential primary that March, she would get over 50% of the vote in the all-party primary and win the election outright. Unfortunately, those plans were complicated when ''The Young Turks'' host Cenk Uygur jumped into the race, and come March 3, he and several scattered Democrats caused Smith to fail to crack 40% of the vote. She was sent into a May runoff with Republican Navy veteran Mike Garcia, who edged out Hill's predecessor Steve Knight to win the seat. What was once considered a slam-dunk for Smith turned into a highly competitive race, and with the COVID-19 crisis beginning shortly afterwards, turnout was expected to be very low. The bottom fell out for Smith when she made a joke about Garcia's military service that alienated several voters in the military heavy district. Democratic turnout in the runoff was extremely low, as most Democratic voters were Latinos who rarely show up to the poll outside of November elections, and Garcia not only won, but he did so by nearly 10 percent margin.
* Virtually every prognosticator in 2018 expected Republican Rep. Steve Russell to easily hold onto his seat in UsefulNotes/{{Oklahoma|USA}}'s 5th congressional district--on average polls had him [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/oklahoma/5/ ahead by 13%]]. In the end, Kendra Horn, his Democratic challenger, tapped into anger at outgoing Republican Governor Mary Fallin's unpopular education policies, and a strong performance at the top of the ticket by gubernatorial nominee Drew Edmondson, to squeak out a 1-point win and becoming the first Democrat to represent the district since the 1970s.
** Zig-zagged in the 2020 Republican primary to take on Horn. Heading into round 1, State Senator Stephanie Bice was seen as nearly certain to be the first place finisher, with a good shot of winning the primary outright without the need for a runoff. However, Bice got forced into a runoff with businesswoman Terry Neese, and even more embarrassingly, came in second place with only 25%. Going into the August runoff, Neese was now considered a favorite to beat Bice, due to large levels of outside support from conservative organizations. However, shortly before the runoff, several scandals sunk Neese's support, and Bice came back and won by a six-point margin. Because of Bice's win, national Republicans feel a lot more confident that they would win the seat back than they would have with Neese---and indeed, they did.
* Done twice in UsefulNotes/SouthCarolina's 1st congressional district, based in the suburbs of Charleston, in the 2018 cycle. The seat had been held by former governor Mark Sanford since 2013, after Republican Tim Scott was appointed to the U.S. Senate (Sanford actually held the seat before he was governor). However, Sanford's libertarian politics made him quite unpopular with mainstream Republicans. In a primary that went completely under the radar, he lost renomination for the seat to state representative Katie Arrington, a staunch conservative. Given the fact that Trump carried the district by 13 points, it seemed that Arrington was well on her way to Congress. However, she proved to be a little too far to the right for suburbanites to handle, and she narrowly lost her bid to Joe Cunningham, who became the first Democrat to win the district since the 1980s.
* When UsefulNotes/JoeBiden first ran for the Senate in 1972 after only serving two years on the New Castle County Council, he won the Democratic nomination to face incumbent Republican Delaware Senator and former Governor J. Caleb Boggs because no other Democrat wanted to do so, believing they couldn't beat him. Biden had basically no funds, but in the closest Senate election that year, he won by a little more than 3,000 even as UsefulNotes/RichardNixon carried the state by 20 percentage points, becoming the youngest senator in that Congress, and held the seat for a further 36 years, until he resigned to become vice president.
* For Germany's 2021 federal election, the incumbent center-right [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] coalition party seemed poised to stay in power. Despite some setbacks like struggling to find a successor to the popular outgoing Chancellor UsefulNotes/AngelaMerkel, for much of 2021, the party held double-digit poll lead over their biggest rival, the center-left [=SPD=] party. Furthermore, their outlook was emboldened by both declining [=SPD=] membership and recent election losses by leftist parties in Europe. However, the election resulted in the [=SPD=] winning the most seats while the [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] suffered their worst defeat since ''1945''. After the forming a coalition with the Greens and [=FDP=], [=SPD=] leader Olaf Scholz became the new Chancellor and the [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] was relegated into an opposition block. While some attributed the [=SPD=]'s win to the party's policies, several voters chose [=SPD=] because they liked Scholz respectable and stable personality whereas [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] leader Armin Laschet was seen as elitist and aloof especially after he was caught on camera laughing at flooded towns.
* In 2022, Republican Joe Kent was expected to win UsefulNotes/{{Washington}}'s 3rd congressional district with polling aggregator ''[=FiveThirtyEight=]'' giving him a 98% chance of winning. However, Kent was ultimately defeated by Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by a 1.5 point margin, flipping a seat that Republicans previously held for 12 years. Many post-mortem reports, [[https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/marie-gluesenkamp-perezs-win-shows-why-republicans-flopped-this-fall/672110/?utm_source=feed including one by]] ''The Atlantic'', blamed Kent's loss on his extremist views, alignment with Donald Trump and peddling of electoral fraud conspiracies that drove voters to Perez. It didn't help that Republican voters ousted incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler in the jungle primary after she voted to impeach Trump following the 2021 Capitol Hill insurrection; given how Beutler was more moderate and won every election in the district since 2010, often by double-digit margins and even when outspent by Democrats, it's highly probable that she would've kept the district had she made it to the general election.
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[[folder:Other politics]]
* In the 2009 Israeli national elections, the Kadima party assumed victory since they won the most seats, one seat more than the runner-up Likud party. However, since Israel uses a parliamentary system, the winning party is required to form a coalition government made up of the majority of the parliament. Kadima was unable to do so, since the smaller parties were aligned with the Likud, leaving Likud the actual winner.
* During the elections for the new pope in 2013, many of the Italian cardinals assumed Milan Archbishop Angelo Scola would be picked, and had already sent him letters of congratulation when it was revealed that Argentinian Jorge Bergoglio was picked instead.
** And on the subject of papal elections: "A man who enters the conclave as pope will often leave it as [a] cardinal". Cardinals have historically tended to react poorly to a fellow cardinal being so crass as to campaign for the role of pope, let alone being so arrogant as to think their victory is assured.
* For Germany's 2021 federal election, the incumbent center-right [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] coalition party seemed poised to stay in power. Despite some setbacks like struggling to find a successor to the popular outgoing Chancellor UsefulNotes/AngelaMerkel, for much of 2021, the party held double-digit poll lead over their biggest rival, the center-left [=SPD=] party. Furthermore, their outlook was emboldened by both declining [=SPD=] membership and recent election losses by leftist parties in Europe. However, the election resulted in the [=SPD=] winning the most seats while the [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] suffered their worst defeat since ''1945''. After the forming a coalition with the Greens and [=FDP=], [=SPD=] leader Olaf Scholz became the new Chancellor and the [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] was relegated into an opposition block. While some attributed the [=SPD=]'s win to the party's policies, several voters chose [=SPD=] because they liked Scholz respectable and stable personality whereas [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] leader Armin Laschet was seen as elitist and aloof especially after he was caught on camera laughing at flooded towns.
[[/folder]]
* In the 2009 Israeli national elections, the Kadima party assumed victory since they won the most seats, one seat more than the runner-up Likud party. However, since Israel uses a parliamentary system, the winning party is required to form a coalition government made up of the majority of the parliament. Kadima was unable to do so, since the smaller parties were aligned with the Likud, leaving Likud the actual winner.
* During the elections for the new pope in 2013, many of the Italian cardinals assumed Milan Archbishop Angelo Scola would be picked, and had already sent him letters of congratulation when it was revealed that Argentinian Jorge Bergoglio was picked instead.
** And on the subject of papal elections: "A man who enters the conclave as pope will often leave it as [a] cardinal". Cardinals have historically tended to react poorly to a fellow cardinal being so crass as to campaign for the role of pope, let alone being so arrogant as to think their victory is assured.
* For Germany's 2021 federal election, the incumbent center-right [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] coalition party seemed poised to stay in power. Despite some setbacks like struggling to find a successor to the popular outgoing Chancellor UsefulNotes/AngelaMerkel, for much of 2021, the party held double-digit poll lead over their biggest rival, the center-left [=SPD=] party. Furthermore, their outlook was emboldened by both declining [=SPD=] membership and recent election losses by leftist parties in Europe. However, the election resulted in the [=SPD=] winning the most seats while the [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] suffered their worst defeat since ''1945''. After the forming a coalition with the Greens and [=FDP=], [=SPD=] leader Olaf Scholz became the new Chancellor and the [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] was relegated into an opposition block. While some attributed the [=SPD=]'s win to the party's policies, several voters chose [=SPD=] because they liked Scholz respectable and stable personality whereas [=CDU=]-[=CSU=] leader Armin Laschet was seen as elitist and aloof especially after he was caught on camera laughing at flooded towns.
[[/folder]]
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* The 1916 presidential election: Republican challenger Charles Evans Hughes went to bed believing that he had won the election, but late returns from California showed that UsefulNotes/WoodrowWilson had carried the state, and thereby the [[UsefulNotes/AmericanPoliticalSystem Electoral College]]. An apocryphal account states a reporter called to ask Hughes for his reaction and was told by a servant "The President-elect has retired and does not wish to be disturbed." To which the reporter said, "When the President-elect is available, please tell him that he is not the President-elect." This incident is depicted in the 1944 film ''{{Film/Wilson}}''.
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* The Prior to the 1916 presidential election: election, most pundits thought President UsefulNotes/WoodrowWilson would be soundly defeated by Republican challenger Charles Evans Hughes Hughes. Wilson's previous win in 1912 amidst a badly split Republican Party was thought to be a fluke, and the reunified Republicans expected it would be easy to unseat him. Early returns were favorable for Hughes, with a near-sweep of the Northeast, and he went to bed believing that he had won the election, but late returns from election. The western states reversed this trend and tightened the race, and by Thursday night California showed that UsefulNotes/WoodrowWilson had carried pushed Wilson over the state, and thereby top in the [[UsefulNotes/AmericanPoliticalSystem Electoral College]]. An apocryphal account states a reporter called to ask Hughes for his reaction and was told by a servant "The President-elect has retired and does not wish to be disturbed." To which the reporter said, "When the President-elect is available, please tell him that he is not the President-elect." This incident is depicted in the 1944 film ''{{Film/Wilson}}''.
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[-[[caption-width-right:350:The ''Chicago Tribune'' in 1948 (erroneously) [[AuthenticationByNewspaper proclaims]] the victory of U.S. presidential candidate Thomas Dewey over UsefulNotes/HarrySTruman, as held by President Harry Truman. CoversAlwaysLie...]]-]
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[-[[caption-width-right:350:The ''Chicago Tribune'' in 1948 (erroneously) [[AuthenticationByNewspaper proclaims]] the victory of U.S. presidential candidate Thomas Dewey over UsefulNotes/HarrySTruman, as held by President Harry Truman. CoversAlwaysLie...]]-]
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