The fear that human beings could run out of resources due to a surplus population goes as far back as classical times but was codified by Thomas Malthus in his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population and, in modern times, by Paul Erlich in his 1968 book The Population Bomb. Both men in their eras witnessed massive population growth: Malthus' native England saw demographic expansion throughout the 18th century due to the British Agricultural Revolution
, while in the 1960s, Paul Erlich witnessed the The Baby Boom and assumed that the rapid rise in the population would lead to economic and agricultural collapse late in the 20th century.
However, the fear of an overloaded world has not panned out and has led to several alarmist myths.
Myth #1: Population Growth Is Unstoppable
The overpopulation alarmists of the 1960s acted on the assumption that the Baby Boom was a permanent thing and that the growth rates of the mid-1960s would continue forever.However, in many parts of the world, not only have growth rates stabilized, but many nations have below-replacement birth rates. The East Asian states and the former Eastern blocs have seen populations drop in recent years. Russia has endured The Russian Cross, a period of almost constant population decline since the downfall of the Soviet Union. Many first-world states like England or the United States would have virtually no population growth if it weren't for immigration, and some countries are trying to incentivize births through subsidies and childcare benefits.
Many nations, as they've become more industrialized and urban, have undergone demographic transition. Families were more extensive in pre-industrial societies since farmers needed many children to work on the farm, and many kids died of disease or childbirth. But as countries become more urbanized, birth rates fell since having many kids wasn't necessary or advantageous if you lived in a cramped urban environment.
Much of the population growth since World War II can be attributed to the fact that once-deadly diseases like smallpox and malaria have become less dangerous or eliminated. Since the 1960s, even people in third-world countries have gained access to things like education, family planning, abortion, improved birth control, and better medicine. Women also have gained greater freedoms and can pursue careers and other opportunities.
Myth #2: The World is Running out of Resources
The fear of resource shortfalls is more plausible, and events like the oil crisis and the occasional drought can lead to worries that a necessary commodity could be depleted.In reality, agriculture and other production processes have become more and more efficient. A counter-argument to the Malthusian argument, Cornucopianism argues that people can innovate their way out of potential problems.
For example, the fears of famines in the late 20th century were laid to rest by the Green Revolution. Scientists like Norman Borlaug used fertilizers, mechanization, cross-breeding new crops, and pesticides to increase food production. And they succeeded to the point that Norman Borlaug was credited for saving 1 Billion Lives.
But there are still limits to growth. During his Nobel acceptance speech, Norman Borlaug said, “There can be no permanent progress in the battle against hunger until the agencies that fight for increased food production and those that fight for population control unite in a common effort.” He also said, "We, agriculturists, can buy at most a few decades of time in which to bring population growth into successful balance with food production." (Norman Borlaug: "Wheat breeding and its impact on world food supply." In: Third International Wheat Genetics Symposium. CIMMYT, 1968.)
Even when there are potential bottlenecks in a key resource, people can lower their consumption while new inventions can make the use of the resources more efficient. While the energy crises of the 1970s and late 2000s did lead to economic hardship in the short term, technologies gradually made the use and extraction of oil more efficient. See this article for more on the issue of peak oil.
Myth #3: Too Many Poor People Create Poverty and Starvation
It is common for the poor to be blamed for their famine and disease. And it is these myths that not only contribute to poverty but have led to genuine horrors.Whether a society suffers poverty or desolation depends on that country's political system. Amartya Sen, an Indian economist, asserted, "No famine has ever taken place in the history of the world in a functioning democracy."
We have several examples of non-democratic institutions contributing to famine: for instance, Ireland and India, both British colonies until the 20th century.
For centuries, both places were mired in poverty and desolation compared to the English class that lorded over them. While there are debates over whether the English left behind any meaningful institutions, British rule was not nice: the native Irish were brutalized by the English due to their Catholicism, while the Indians were treated as inferior.
The British's poverty and disdain for their subjects contributed to famines in both places. Irish Potato Famine has been largely blamed on potato blight. So many people died because the potato was the only food the Irish had access to. Ireland had plenty of other crops, but the British government refused to stop exports of those foods, which were controlled by landlords squeezing the peasants even during the famine. The best the British offered were donations of cornmeal and a public works program, but the maladministration of these programs contributed to millions of people dying or emigrating. This wasn't helped by the fact that the British leaders believed both in the "natural" inferiority of the Irish and the Malthusian belief that starvation was due to overpopulation.
India's exploitation was even more intense: under the East India Company rule, the well-being of the Indian peasants was not prioritized by the company heads, who were more interested in looting as much wealth as they could. While there was a drought in 1770, the unwillingness of the East India Company to offer relief led to 10 million deaths. Famines would recur throughout British rule, and as late as 1943, another famine in the Bengal region killed 3 million people. While the famine was blamed on wartime disruptions, the British were "reluctant" to do more to help the people of Bengal.
It is important to note there were attempts to alleviate both the 1840s Irish famine and the 1943 Bengal Famine by international donors. Still, the British were willing to block aid for reasons that ranged from embarrassment to a sinister desire to subjugate colonial subjects.
While India and Ireland's post-colonial histories have not been all sunshine and lollipops under their sovereign and democratic governments, none of them have suffered the degree of starvation and famine they did under British rule. India has struggled to alleviate poverty, but even during natural disasters like the 1972 Maharashtra drought, local governments were able to distribute food and organize public works to prevent mass death.
Myth #4 The Environment Is Doomed
Climate change and environmental decay are serious issues, but news organizations tend to exaggerate them for sensationalism. While news reports often depicted ancient forests being demolished for cattle and lumber, it isn't the whole story.In some parts of the world, for example, the number of forests has grown. America, thanks to conservation efforts and reforestation projects, the amount of forest cover has increased in places like the United States and Israelnote
One of the most famous environmental crises, the hole in the ozone layer has begun to turn around. In the 1980s, the government agreed to ban aerosols damaging the ozone layer, and now some say it could fully recover by the middle of the 21st century.
