Summary; I completely underestimate the speed of the Tokugawa, who somehow manage to get their entire army from their capital to mine. I lose my capital, though at least the Tokugawa have the decency to leave it open to counter attack. But hey, the Hattori assault never happens.
I knew from the start that trying to hold Mino was a stupid, stupid idea. Having done my usual recruitment run, ironically recruiting bow ashigaru in Owari believing it to be safe, I march an army up north and manage to get 8 units within reinforcing range of Mino... and I leave an army just within reinforcing range of Owari too, made up of seven units. This was just in case the Kitabatake decided to make an attack just then. I end the turn dreading a Hattori attack... but nothing could have prepared me for what was really coming.
The Tokugawa manage what I thought wasn't possible. They march an army up north and attack Owari, dragging my weak reinforcement force into a fight they don't stand a chance in. With only my 45 retainers inside the castle, and with 1568 enemies bearing down on my army of 567, I know there is only one way this can end.
To make matters better, the enemy at least have the decency to attack in a rain storm, weakening their superior bows, which they have four of to my two weakened ones. I get the reinforcements and make a charge for the castle... but find my advance cut off by ashigaru bowmen. I do manage to break through two units of them while my retainers cut down an admirable number of ashigaru who swarm into the walls, preventing a time out victory, but more and more ashigaru bear down and the enemy bows take a heavy toll. The inevitable happens and my forces break.
To my astonishment, I take home more heads than my enemy, with 644 Tokugawa dead, more men than I brought to the field. I myself lose 446 men, but the damage is done. Owari is taken, leaving me with a large army stuffed up in Mino... and the Hattori choose to hang back, meaning if I go south I still have them to worry about.
At least the Tokugawa have the decency to leave their new prize ungarrisoned, though they remain in reinforcing range! But this is bad.
I can't believe the speed of the Tokugawa advance. I see it in hindsight; my forces suffered a move penalty because it was winter and my forces had to steer clear of the road in order to take down the Tokugawa army. I also can't believe the size of their army. There is no way they could have assembled an army of that size one unit at a time. Is there something I'm missing about recruitment? Can you recruit multiple units in a city per turn? How are the Tokugawa even affording this? I'm running on fumes already and I've got... well, I had
two cities for heavens sake!