History Recap / StarTrekDeepSpaceNineS06E09StatisticalProbabilities

Bashir joins the group to watch an announcement from Gul Damar, in which the new Cardassian leader states his intention to negotiate for peace. The group draws some astute deductions about Damar's state of mind and his intentions, so when Cardassian and Dominion delegates arrive on the station to negotiate the peace treaty, Bashir pulls strings to ensure that his talented charges can watch via hologram. The group rapidly deduces that the Dominion is trying to acquire a seemingly innocuous planet in the Kabrel system. Detached from the others, Sarina figures out the reason why the planet is useful and pulls it up on a tablet.

Bashir brings the group's analysis to Sisko: the Dominion is trying to gain access to certain chemicals that would enable them to produce ketracel-white on this side of the wormhole. Figuring this out just saved the Alpha Quadrant. High on success and glorying in the long-repressed advantages that his genetic modifications grant him, Bashir starts to quarrel with O'Brien, who doesn't take kindly to the doctor's newfound condescension toward "slow" people like him. However, Bashir's optimism vanishes after he looks at the group's latest war projections: the war against the Dominion is doomed.

* ArtisticLicenseStatistics: If Bashir and the genetically engineered quartet really are super-geniuses, they should know right from the start that they can't make accurate predictions on the outcome of the Federation/Dominion war based on the limited data they have. But in order for the [[AnAesop aesop]] to work, they need to be ignorant of this at first, so that they can all learn a lesson by the end of the episode. The most obvious is that they didn't even ''consider'' that the Dominion might be able to do the same math and alter their plans accordingly (which the audience knows they did several episodes earlier). The quartet's ignorance might be justified by a combination of overconfidence in their own mental abilities, a lack of real-world experience of how people think, and not actually having been officially trained in statistical analysis, but that doesn't explain how ''Bashir'', who has an advanced education and a lifetime of experience interacting with actual people, would make such a basic error.

** To [[Recap/StarTrekDeepSpaceNineS05E15ByInfernosLight "By Inferno's Light"]]--Dukat's and Damar's speeches end the same way:

The group's plan is thwarted before they can hand the data over to Weyoun and Damar. Jack is furious at being stymied, arguing that Sisko has doomed hundreds of billions of lives. Sisko counters that the group's projections could be wrong. After all, they didn't anticipate Sarina's betrayal right under their nose. The four are allowed to return to their clinic with no files charged. Before they go, they ask permission to continue sending Bashir their analyses on how to defeat the Dominion, and Bashir gratefully agrees.

* AnythingThatMoves: Lauren will sleep with anyone, according to Jack. Except, of course, for Jack himself.
--> '''Jack:''' You're not exactly known for being very discriminating!\\
'''Lauren:''' Turned ''you'' down, didn't I?\\
'''Jack:''' And you're ''still'' regretting it!

* ArtisticLicenseStatistics: If Bashir and the genetically engineered quartet really are super-geniuses, they should know right from the start that they can't make accurate predictions on the outcome of the Federation/Dominion war based on the limited data they have. But in order for the [[AnAesop aesop]] to work, they need to be ignorant of this at first, so that they can all learn a lesson by the end of the episode. The most obvious is that they didn't even ''consider'' that the Dominion might be able to do the same math and alter their plans accordingly (which the audience knows they did several episodes earlier). The quartet's ignorance might be justified by a combination of overconfidence in their own mental abilities and lack of real-world experience of how people think, but that doesn't explain how ''Bashir'', who has an advanced education and a lifetime of experience interacting with actual people, would make such a basic error.

* ArtisticLicenseStatistics: If Bashir and the genetically engineered quartet really are super-geniuses, they should know right from the start that they can't make accurate predictions on the outcome of the Federation/Dominion war based on the limited data they have. But in order for the [[AnAesop aesop]] to work, they need to be ignorant of this at first, so that they can all learn a lesson by the end of the episode. The most obvious is that they didn't even ''consider'' that the Dominion might be able to do the same math and alter their plans accordingly (which the audience knows they did several episodes earlier).

* SpannerInTheWorks: Sarina manages to ruin Jack's entire plan, which Bashir brings up to make the point that all the analyses in the world can't account for the unpredictable.

Bashir joins the group to watch an announcement from Gul Damar, in which the new Cardassian leader states his intention to negotiate for peace. The group draws more deductions about Damar's state of mind and his intentions. When a Cardassian and Dominion delegation arrives on the station to negotiate the peace treaty, Bashir pulls strings to ensure that his talented charges can watch via hologram. The group rapidly deduces that the Dominion is trying to acquire a seemingly innocuous planet in the Kabrel system. Detached from the others, Sarina figures out the reason why the planet is useful and pulls it up on a tablet.

Loew announces that she's recruited another genetically modified person, Dr. Bashir, to try to connect with them. Bashir arrives, and Jack is immediately combative, criticizing how Bashir was able to cut a deal to maintain his position in Starfleet, a job usually prohibited to those with genetic modifications. After a relatively unproductive meeting, Bashir leaves to have dinner with senior office staff, where they debate the morality of the Federation's laws against genetic modification. Before tempers can flare, they all agree that it's a complicated issue with no perfect solution.

* ItWillNeverCatchOn: Bashir and the augments predict that even an anti-Dominion coup on Cardassia won't be enough to turn the tide of the war.