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** He made predictions based statistics and was, in this case, right. He could easily have been wrong, yes, but he knew the odds and, given as he said he does enjoy the sport from an analytical standpoint, quite possibly knew the players and their personal tendencies. So he made a call that was reasonably likely and happened to be correct. If he'd been wrong Watson would have just written it off as him lying to get her to leave so he had little to lose by trying.

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** He made predictions based statistics on probability and was, in this case, right. He could easily have been wrong, yes, but he knew the odds and, given as he said he does enjoy the sport from an analytical standpoint, quite possibly knew the players and their personal tendencies. So he made a call that was reasonably likely and happened to be correct. If he'd been wrong Watson would have just written it off as him lying to get her to leave so he had little to lose by trying.
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** He made predictions based statistics and was, in this case, right. He could easily have been wrong, yes, but he knew the odds and, given as he said he does enjoy the sport from an analytical standpoint, quite possibly knew the players and their personal tendencies. So he made a call that was reasonably likely and happened to be correct. If he'd been wrong Watson would have just written it off as him lying to get her to leave so he had little to lose by trying.


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** Linking him to them, yes. Linking him to their murders, no. Knowing a murder victim is suggestive under certain circumstances but it is not itself illegal.
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** She wasn't a professional criminal and wasn't thinking straight. She presumably concluded that moving the body would be too risky and figured out a way to hide it without ever having to take it out the house. It was a stupid option but it's the sort of thing someone might think of while panicking a bit. I'd guess a few days later she probably came up with a bunch of better ideas but by then the wife was back so she just had to leave it.

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** *** She wasn't a professional criminal and wasn't thinking straight. She presumably concluded that moving the body would be too risky and figured out a way to hide it without ever having to take it out the house. It was a stupid option but it's the sort of thing someone might think of while panicking a bit. I'd guess a few days later she probably came up with a bunch of better ideas but by then the wife was back so she just had to leave it.
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** She wasn't a professional criminal and wasn't thinking straight. She presumably concluded that moving the body would be too risky and figured out a way to hide it without ever having to take it out the house. It was a stupid option but it's the sort of thing someone might think of while panicking a bit. I'd guess a few days later she probably came up with a bunch of better ideas but by then the wife was back so she just had to leave it.
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Headscratchers for ''Series/{{Elementary}}''.
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** Who says it was her blood? “Irene Adler” isn’t a real person, so there’s nothing to compare the blood to for a DNA test to show it’s “Irene’s” blood or not. Besides, M already has an MO: he kills people in their own homes. If you see a pool of blood in Irene’s home and no Irene, you don’t need to do a DNA test to check it’s really her blood. They could get the blood from any human woman and dump it and there would be no way of knowing whose it really was.
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* How do they justify the idea that there's not enough evidence to even hold Michael when he returns for the season 6 finale? Even writing off his admission to Sherlock as a he-said/he-said, there's a direct link between him and the woman he killed earlier in the season (Gregson's daughter's roommate) and from her to the earlier victims.

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* How do they justify the idea that there's not enough evidence to even hold Michael when he returns for the season 6 finale? Even writing off his admission to Sherlock as a he-said/he-said, there's a direct link between him and the woman he killed earlier in the season (Gregson's daughter's (Hannah Gregson's roommate) and from her to the earlier victims.
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* How do they justify the idea that there's not enough evidence to even hold Michael when he returns for the season 6 finale? Even writing off his admission to Sherlock as a he-said/he-said, there's a direct link between him and the woman he killed earlier in the season (Gregson's daughter's roommate) and from her to the earlier victims.
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*** We also saw demonstrated on screen in 'Possibility Two' (which, given it was early in Season 1, would canonically have taken place only a couple years after Irene's fake death), that a sufficiently knowledgeable expert with the proper equipment can easily doctor blood to fool a police DNA test.
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** Another major headscratcher in that episode: the murderer has killed her victim, and since the guy's wife is in UsefulNotes/{{India}}, she has plenty of time to dispose the body without no one noticing. Now, if she would've just dumped the body into the sea or buried it, no one would know why the guy vanished. Since the guy had no apparent enemies, the cops might've ruled it as a suicide (which indeed seems to be the case before the body was found). But what does the murderer do? She ''tears down the wall of the victim's apartment, hides the body inside, and rebuilds the wall so the wife won't notice'', something which must've taken her quite a bit of time and effort. (What if one of the neighbours had come to complain about the noise while she was doing it?) Now, this is pretty much the stupidest way one can think of to dispose a body. What if the wife had noticed the bulge in the wall, and the fact that the picture frames on it had been moved? What if the stench of the rotting body began to seep through the wall? What if the the wife simply decided to renovate the apartment? Since the murderer clearly had time to think about what to do with the body, how on earth did she come up with an incredibly stupid solution like this?

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** Another major headscratcher in that episode: the murderer has killed her victim, and since the guy's wife is in UsefulNotes/{{India}}, she has plenty of time to dispose the body without with no one noticing. Now, if she would've just dumped the body into the sea or buried it, no one would know why the guy vanished. Since the guy had no apparent enemies, the cops might've ruled it as a suicide (which indeed seems to be the case before the body was found). But what does the murderer do? She ''tears down the wall of the victim's apartment, hides the body inside, and rebuilds the wall so the wife won't notice'', something which must've taken her quite a bit of time and effort. (What if one of the neighbours had come to complain about the noise while she was doing it?) Now, this is pretty much the stupidest way one can think of to dispose a body. What if the wife had noticed the bulge in the wall, and the fact that the picture frames on it had been moved? What if the stench of the rotting body began to seep through the wall? What if the the wife simply decided to renovate the apartment? Since the murderer clearly had time to think about what to do with the body, how on earth did she come up with an incredibly stupid solution like this?
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** Another major headscratcher in that episode: the murderer has killed her victim, and since the guy's wife is in UsefulNotes/{{India}}, she has plenty of time to dispose the body without no one noticing. Now, if she would've just dumped the body into the sea or buried it, no one would know why the guy vanished. Since the guy had no apparent enemies, the cops might've ruled it as a suicide (which indeed seems to be the case before the body was found). But what does the murderer do? She ''tears down the wall of the apartment, hides the body inside, and rebuilds the wall so the wife won't notice'', something which must've taken her quite a bit of time and effort. (What if one of the neighbours had come to complain about the noise while she was doing it?) Now, this is pretty much the stupidest way one can think of to dispose a body. What if the wife had noticed the bulge in the wall, and the fact that the picture frames on it had been moved? What if the stench of the rotting body began to seep through the wall? What if the the wife simply decided to renovate the apartment? Since the murderer clearly had time to think about what to do with the body, how on earth did she come up with an incredibly stupid solution like this?

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** Another major headscratcher in that episode: the murderer has killed her victim, and since the guy's wife is in UsefulNotes/{{India}}, she has plenty of time to dispose the body without no one noticing. Now, if she would've just dumped the body into the sea or buried it, no one would know why the guy vanished. Since the guy had no apparent enemies, the cops might've ruled it as a suicide (which indeed seems to be the case before the body was found). But what does the murderer do? She ''tears down the wall of the victim's apartment, hides the body inside, and rebuilds the wall so the wife won't notice'', something which must've taken her quite a bit of time and effort. (What if one of the neighbours had come to complain about the noise while she was doing it?) Now, this is pretty much the stupidest way one can think of to dispose a body. What if the wife had noticed the bulge in the wall, and the fact that the picture frames on it had been moved? What if the stench of the rotting body began to seep through the wall? What if the the wife simply decided to renovate the apartment? Since the murderer clearly had time to think about what to do with the body, how on earth did she come up with an incredibly stupid solution like this?
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** Another major headscratcher in that episode: the murderer has killed her victim, and since the guy's wife is in UsefulNotes/{{India}}, she has plenty of time to dispose the body without no one noticing. Now, if she would've just dumped the body into the sea or buried it, no one would know why the guy vanished. Since the guy had no apparent enemies, the cops might've ruled it as a suicide (which indeed seems to be the case before the body was found). But what does the murderer do? She ''tears down the wall of the apartment, hides the body inside, and rebuilds the wall so the wife won't notice'', something which must've taken her quite a bit of time and effort. (What if one of the neighbours had come to complain about the noise while she was doing it?) Now, this is pretty much the stupidest way one can think of to dispose a body. What if the wife had noticed the bulge in the wall, and the fact that the picture frames on it had been moved? What if the stench of the rotting body began to seep through the wall? What if the the wife simply decided to renovate the apartment? Since the murdered clearly had time to think about what to do with the body, how on earth did she come up with an incredibly stupid solution like this?

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** Another major headscratcher in that episode: the murderer has killed her victim, and since the guy's wife is in UsefulNotes/{{India}}, she has plenty of time to dispose the body without no one noticing. Now, if she would've just dumped the body into the sea or buried it, no one would know why the guy vanished. Since the guy had no apparent enemies, the cops might've ruled it as a suicide (which indeed seems to be the case before the body was found). But what does the murderer do? She ''tears down the wall of the apartment, hides the body inside, and rebuilds the wall so the wife won't notice'', something which must've taken her quite a bit of time and effort. (What if one of the neighbours had come to complain about the noise while she was doing it?) Now, this is pretty much the stupidest way one can think of to dispose a body. What if the wife had noticed the bulge in the wall, and the fact that the picture frames on it had been moved? What if the stench of the rotting body began to seep through the wall? What if the the wife simply decided to renovate the apartment? Since the murdered murderer clearly had time to think about what to do with the body, how on earth did she come up with an incredibly stupid solution like this?
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* How in the hell did Holmes predict three plays in a row of a baseball game in the Pilot? No matter how good you are at statistics and deduction, the outcome of an individual play is subject to chance. Just because a player statistically should, for example, pop up to center does not mean that he will. And if you tell me that it was a recording, then I'll tell you that Watson would have no reason to insist on staying to watch it if it was something she could have returned to anytime she wanted.
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** Gregson works for the Major Crimes unit (or a similar name to that.) As it would be, his jurisdiction should be the entire city. Presumably, the precinct is merely a designation for that unit, given that there is no actual 11th precinct in the NYPD.
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** Another major headscratcher in that episode: the murderer has killed her victim, and since the guy's wife is in India, she has plenty of time to dispose the body without no one noticing. Now, if she would've just dumbed the body into the sea or buried it, no one would know why the guy vanished. Since the guy had no apparent enemies, the cops might've ruled it as a suicide (which indeed seems to be the case before the body was found). But what does the murderer do? She ''tears down the wall of the apartment, hides the body inside, and rebuilds the wall so the wife won't notice'', something which must've taken her quite a bit of time and effort. (What if one of the neighbours had come to complain about the noise while she was doing it?) Now, this is pretty much the stupidest way one can think of to dispose a body. What if the wife had noticed the bulge in the wall, and the fact that the picture frames on it had been moved? What if the stench of the rotting body began to seep through the wall? What if the the wife simply decided to renovate the apartment? Since the murdered clearly had time to think about what to do with the body, how on earth did she come up with an incredibly stupid solution like this?

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** Another major headscratcher in that episode: the murderer has killed her victim, and since the guy's wife is in India, UsefulNotes/{{India}}, she has plenty of time to dispose the body without no one noticing. Now, if she would've just dumbed dumped the body into the sea or buried it, no one would know why the guy vanished. Since the guy had no apparent enemies, the cops might've ruled it as a suicide (which indeed seems to be the case before the body was found). But what does the murderer do? She ''tears down the wall of the apartment, hides the body inside, and rebuilds the wall so the wife won't notice'', something which must've taken her quite a bit of time and effort. (What if one of the neighbours had come to complain about the noise while she was doing it?) Now, this is pretty much the stupidest way one can think of to dispose a body. What if the wife had noticed the bulge in the wall, and the fact that the picture frames on it had been moved? What if the stench of the rotting body began to seep through the wall? What if the the wife simply decided to renovate the apartment? Since the murdered clearly had time to think about what to do with the body, how on earth did she come up with an incredibly stupid solution like this?
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* For that matter, what is Gregson's position? He is stated to work at the Eleventh Precinct, but seems to take cases all over the city without raising questions of jurisdiction.
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** Another major headscratcher in that episode: the murderer has killed her victim, and since the guy's wife is in India, she has plenty of time to dispose the body without no one noticing. Now, if she would've just dumbed the body into the sea or buried it, no one would know why the guy vanished. Since the guy had no apparent enemies, the cops might've ruled it as a suicide (which indeed seems to be the case before the body was found). But what does the murderer do? She ''tears down the wall of the apartment, hides the body inside, and rebuilds the wall so the wife won't notice'', something which must've taken her quite a bit of time and effort. (What if one of the neighbours had come to complain about the noise while she was doing it?) Now, this is pretty much the stupidest way one can think of to dispose a body. What if the wife had noticed the bulge in the wall, and the fact that the picture frames on it had been moved? What if the stench of the rotting body began to seep through the wall? What if the the wife simply decided to renovate the apartment? Since the murdered clearly had time to think about what to do with the body, how on earth did she come up with an incredibly stupid solution like this?
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*** Not really, ''but'', on a certain level it is still truth in television. It's semi-standard procedure for the police to act their evidence is super-solid when talking to a suspect. The idea is that if they can make the suspect think the evidence is unimpeachable then they'll just confess immediately in the hopes of getting a favorable deal.

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*** Not really, ''but'', on a certain level it is still truth in television. It's semi-standard procedure for the police to act like their evidence is super-solid when talking to a suspect. The idea is that if they can make the suspect think the evidence is unimpeachable then they'll just confess immediately in the hopes of getting a favorable deal.
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*** Not really, ''but'', on a certain level it is still truth in television. It's semi-standard procedure for the police to act their evidence is super-solid when talking to a suspect. The idea is that if they can make the suspect think the evidence is unimpeachable then they'll just confess immediately in the hopes of getting a favorable deal.
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** I find the real headscratcher in that episode to be how they treated the handwriting comparison (from a crossword puzzle, even) as the damning evidence, when it would be circumstancial at best. They really didn't have much evidence that the villains lawyers wouldn't be able to tear to shreds in court, did they?

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