Box Office Thread

I'm not sure if Dune: Part Two can hit $700 million, but it's still very good news for it otherwise, both in terms of the franchise and for the industry in general. Denis Villeneuve, if he keeps his streak up, is shaping to become the next Christopher Nolan — a director who hits the sweet spot between commercial success and critical acclaim, and who simultaneously appeals to casual moviegoers and hardcore movie buffs.

I'm still wanting Endgame to get a re-release or two that'll give it back the #1 Highest-Grossing of All-Time spot. Hoping Oppenheimer will get a re-release that bolsters it to a billion too.

Speaking of R-rated movies with a billion dollars, with the trailer to the Joker sequel dropping this week—and set for release on the exact same day five years later too, anyone think it'll make a billion like the first one did?

Why? Why does it matter it's number 1 or not?

Yeah, Openheimer is so close to a billion, what do you think would really matter if it made 30 million extra dollars?

They're not gonna give Nolan a second Oscar for the thing. It's a succes by every standard possible, reaching some arbitray dollar amount seems like Fan Myopia.

Regarding Joker repeating the billion, it's a tall order, but not impossible. The Joker is still a draw, and having Lady Gaga broadens the film's appeal. And checking the release schedule, if the original had weak competition on its second week (The Addams Family (2019) and Gemini Man, even if the former had OK box office) the one for Folie a Deux so far is only Piece by Piece, a Lego biopic of Pharrell (!), so if it opens strong it's easy to sustain. There are points against, such as superhero fatigue and the fact it'll be heavy on musical numbers, but if the buzz is positive by release it can at least make as much money as The Batman.

Edited by igordebraga on Apr 12th 2024 at 2:07:10 PM

Also, box office numbers don't always reflect the quality of the movie. Some of the best movies didn't even make over $1 Billion at the box office and even though the live action Lion King movie made over $1 Billion, that movie has quite a hatedom.

I think Endgame deserves the spot more than the first Avatar for one thing and for another, as successful as Oppenheimer was, it came so close and just barely missed the mark. Aside from being a deserving movie, I like the idea of seeing more R-rated movies make a billion too. Why I think that matters is that it means the rating doesn't determine the success of the movie and more of those would help with that too.

Yeah I know neither one really matters. I can still hope for them though, can't I?

Then again, so many went into the first Joker movie at the time expecting something closer to a Batman movie. That could put off many of those people that it wasn't and might drive them to not give this one nearly as much business as result too.

Edited by futuremoviewriter on Apr 14th 2024 at 7:37:44 AM

Seems kind of petty to me. I fully think Dune has far more artistic merit than most if not all MCU films, but I'm not really clamoring it to outgross them, I just want it to be a big hit on its own merits (which it is).

The wack part of Avatar is that is started a 3d craze that we’re kinda still paying for with how much 3d cinemas were built to cash in on 3d

You don't think it was petty for Avatar to go back into theaters and take the top spot back to begin with? I have more to say about that, but don't want to complain though so I'm gonna divert away from the topic.

Frozen Empire may just reach the century mark after all. Slow crawl, but it's not unreasonable at all. Quite the impressive run Dune: Part Two, Kung Fu Panda 4 and Godzilla x Kong are all having right now certainly—especially where WB is concerned with two of them.

Civil War got off to a good start this weekend too, so we'll see where it goes.

A lot riding on Abigail being a big hit this upcoming weekend, so fingers crossed.

Edited by futuremoviewriter on Apr 14th 2024 at 7:37:14 AM

Did Paramount really think removing Part One would magically solve issues? Even in streaming they still kept the Part One.

RE: MEDR. Wait people thought Ilsa died? Wasn't the whole point of Paris having a pulse state otherwise?

established Hollywood franchise were slaughtered last year, so bo, not having a part one wouldnt have helped a lot

The movie was helped by being a hit on digital certainly though. That helped save face to a certain degree.

Gonna be interesting to see which movie or movies that come out this year make a billion. That we got already three big hits in the early months of the year does mean it's looking pretty optimistic right now certainly.

About Dead Reckoning: Ilsa very clearly died on screen, but the entire fandom's gone deep into the He's Just Hiding theory and Christopher McQuarrie would be very stupid not to have her come back imo.

It seems like less films are making over $1 Billion these days. Maybe it's due to the rise of streaming services.

That's what I thought too but then they pulled the same thing with Paris, and she had a pulse.

But the problem with streaming is more about whether it will pull new subscribers. Like a billion viewers wouldn't do much if your subscribers didn't go up.

I am surprised KFP 4 is doing overseas. Did it beat the worldwide records of the older films?

Edited by Ookamikun on Apr 16th 2024 at 1:13:12 AM

Streaming services are to blame, is very hard to sell a film that would give us good reasons to move to the theaters to watch it...

I mean, a lot of people would skip Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire or Godzilla X Kong as long as they can feel very routinary to throw money in the movie theathers (good for me to have the membership that allows me to go everytime i want... so, the money is not the problem)...

The Barbieheimer phenomena was unique and I feel both films have their reasons to pull millions to their studios.

Disney has been failing a lot to do that, the promise to have films in a few months are hitting hard on all their projects... see Wish, it was a complete failure on movie theaters but it hit hard on Disney +

See Warner Bros, it has Max, but two films are doing big time in movie theaters despite the fact we will have them soon in the streaming services... probably Dune was more viral than Godzilla but still...

The problem with streaming is more whether a show/or group of new shows would bring in new subscribers.

If streaming services are becoming a problem for box office numbers, then should the studios start adding in whatever numbers they get from streaming services into the box office numbers?

No, because they're two different metrics. Box Office accounts for tickets sold; streaming accounts for new and continual subscribers of a service. The latter's purchase doesn't go to a specific movie.

If I'm understanding correctly, studios have largely stopped doing simul-releases between theaters and digital home media anyway, so it wouldn't even work that way.

For reference, we don't bundle home media sales (like digital or physical copies) into box office numbers.

As I've shown last week, KFP 4 is still the lowest grossing in the franchise worldwide. However, it's the second highest grossing film in the USA and Canadian markets.

Edited by XMenMutant22 on Apr 16th 2024 at 10:19:37 AM

Shocked that Kung Fu panda 4 is recorded 85 mil in budget. Kung Fu Panda 3 had 145 mil to it

I mean that's why Dead Reckoning didn't go to Paramount+ for so long: the digital sales needed to be high to make up for the money left on the table. Can you blame them?

Interested to see how the next one does. Hopefully it performs better certainly. Be shocked if it didn't.

Edited by futuremoviewriter on Apr 16th 2024 at 3:38:09 AM

The lowest gross but offset with the smallest budget right?

So, I guess if the critics say that the movie is bad, then that automatically means that the movie is actually good, right?

But seriously, does a critics' or the general audiences' reviews of a movie affect how a movie does at the box office? I mean, we can say that despite the fact that critics bashed The Super Mario Bros. Movie, the movie still made over $1 Billion at the box office.

Edited by Rabbitearsblog on Apr 17th 2024 at 2:29:40 AM

Cinemascore is a reasonably good predictor, and that’s based on audience polling. Audience reviews in the sense of Rotten Tomatoes ratings or similar are less predictable, as they can be skewed positively or negatively by small vocal groups.

Mario hit a particular combo where critic reviews were a bad indicator, I think — partly being targeted at kids, where critics’ reviews are inevitably skewed towards an adult’s view of the film, and partly because of nostalgic (or even current) recognition from older audiences.

Edited by Dayraven1 on Apr 18th 2024 at 4:05:33 AM