Okay, every topic that has even remotely to do with the middle east keeps getting more general news put into it which removes focus from the original topic.
As such, I'm creating this thread as a general middle east and north africa topic. That means anything to do with the Arab Spring or Israel and Palestine should be kept to those threads and anything to do with more generic news (for example, new Saudi regulations on the number of foreign workers or the Lebanese elections next year, etc.) should be posted here.
I hope the mods will find this a clear enough statement of intent to open the thread.
One can read this comment in multiple different tones.
Why even bring them up then, if your that against giving them attention?
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I personally would do so intentionally. The Houthis are targeting innocent civilian shipping that has nothing to do with their conflict, which damn well needs to be stopped. They're also targeting US money and raising costs at the US consumer's table, and the latter is what Biden and his advisors care about.
The law in the night
And maybe, finding out that attacking USN ships and helicopters is a really bad idea.
Inter arma enim silent leges
Misreading the intent of what I said but okay.
In the name of being honest
It might not be that bad an idea if your whole purpose is to pull a PR stunt to attract international support by "standing up to" the US and its regional client states. The spectre of eight years of failed GCC intervention, plus other military commitments around the world, are probably going to limit Biden and co.'s willingness to tread the same ground long-term.
Edited by eagleoftheninth on Jan 12th 2024 at 1:12:44 AM
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
The law in the night
And the possible result is actually having to deal with a retaliatory strike from the USN, which has the SIGINT capabilities to actually target and destroy important assets, not to mention the visits of accurate missile strikes at Houthi leadership.
It is a gamble that relies on the US not wanting to escalate the situation, but repeated strikes are eventually going to reach the point where retaliation, both against attacks on the USN fleet and international shipping, is going to happen and when the US gets involved, things usually don't end well for the Houthis.
Inter arma enim silent leges
In the name of being honest
Having read up on the US drone campaign in eastern Afghanistan (Wesley Morgan, The Hardest Place) and previous
US strikes on Yemeni soil, my opinion of US military ISR tends to be a touch more reserved than that, to be quite honest. It's not like the Saudis haven't been awash in US intelligence for the past eight years — the fact that the Houthis managed to expand their arsenal despite all that suggests that maybe, just maybe, they're not completely clueless about fortifying and dispersing their assets to survive bombing campaigns.
That's not to mention that Biden has two months to secure an AUMF from a Congress invested in seeing him fail, plus other military commitments worldwide. I don't think the Houthis will continue striking at full tempo for that long, either — their missile stockpiles aren't infinite, and a good chunk of it will have been destroyed by the strikes — but they already survived a round of US strikes back during the Obama admin and could well survive this one too.
If the US-led coalition expands its strikes, then it will eventually kill civilians and give the Houthis martyrs to rally their people around, including the segments of Yemeni society that hate their guts otherwise. Not the wildest gamble for a group that's survived eight years of intense bombing.
Anyway, I'm kind of wondering how this is all going to impact Egypt. Dire cashflow crisis, disruptions to the Ukrainian/Russian grain exports and disappearing revenues from Suez Canal fees all spell some interesting times ahead for the biggest country in the region.
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
The law in the night
I can't find the hard data but this one puts 40% revenue loss for Egypt.
Which might prompt them to give tacit support to the US.
And I'd argue that the main difference between the Obama era drone strikes on Yemen and the current situation is a bit different.
This one aims to neuter the Houthis maritime strike capabilities, Obama era strikes aimed more at dismantling their leadership. I'd wager that striking boats, ships, helicopters and launch platforms for A Sh M and their stocks would be easier than having drones track and kill specific people as targets.
Inter arma enim silent leges
I can't imagine the US's response will take the Houthi by surprise. Makes me think of a story I read from a journalist Afghanistan. Apparently the Taliban near this US base would regularly give some local teenager money and a gun to wait until night and fire random shots at the base, probably not hitting anything but the American's would typically respond with a rocket. At the end of the Night the Taliban would be down less then $100 and maybe a guy and an old gun while the Americans were down a $200 000 rocket. Not that I think the US response has been inappropriate but it'd be a mistake to assume the Houthi expected to get away with more then they did.
China and Saudi Arabia are calling on the coalition to show restraints in doing the strikes. Russia's doing the same, but called out the Houthis too.
Turkey... has called on the UK to stop doing the air strikes and is accusing them of making the Red Sea into a literal "sea of blood".
Edited by Ominae on Jan 12th 2024 at 9:03:36 AM
The law in the night
Unless the Houthis are using their population as human shields on radar stations and launcher units, this isn't going to be a bloodbath.
Those strikes are targeting Houthis radars and missiles anyway.
Members of Code Pink and the ANSWER Coalition (both are NA-based anti-war activist groups) protested near the White House after the strikes started in Yemen.
The law in the night
Can we please not brush this off like it isn't a big deal?
Because it totally is.
The They who said it
I think it might not be. The US has launched strikes at them before, if they haven't struck at that base before, it's not for lack of wanting to.
The law in the night
They have been making threats over and over against US assets in the region. All bark no bite.
Outside of the logistics hurdle of amassing weapons capable of hitting targets outside of some symbolic strike, the American assets in the region are certainly operating at high readiness rate and monitoring the hour his for any large movement.
On top the USN having ships that have been intercepting houthi artillery and missiles since this mess started.
If the houthis start attacking, US bases they have little to gain, except some clout with extremist groups and please their Iranian patrons.
Edited by AngelusNox on Jan 14th 2024 at 3:27:30 PM
Inter arma enim silent leges
he/him
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The law in the night
American Fighter Downs Houthi Missile Heading Toward USS Laboon
No information on the type of aircraft used to shoot down the missile, but probably a F-18 Super Hornet. Also the first type of missile intercept by aircraft in the region.
Inter arma enim silent leges
In the name of being honest
Rudaw: The IRGC launched a ballistic missile attack on what it claimed were "Mossad bases" in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, killing at least four people and wounding 17 more.
The law in the night
Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Hits U.S.-Owned Container Ship In Gulf Of Aden
No major damage or injuries reported, the ship continues via the Cape of Good Hope and the shipping company is leaving the Red Sea route.
Egypt surely is going to be more impacted by this than the West is.
Inter arma enim silent leges
In the name of being honest
Modern container ships are huge, way bigger than the warships these weapons were designed to maul. Even the Ford-class aircraft carrier, the largest warship afloat today, is less than half the tonnage of something like the Ever Given, while being crewed by over 4,000 people compared to the latter's 20-30.
That none of the targeted crews have been hurt is certainly no small matter of luck, but it's not unprecedented, either: I don't think the Iranian attacks on tankers during the Iran-Iraq War managed to hurt many crewmembers, despite Iranian rocket launcher boats loosing many point-blank barrages at the ships.
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
The law in the night
First Preemptive Strikes Against Houthi Missiles Preparing To Fire Launched By U.S.
The USN launched strikes against Houthi Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile before they could be launched.
This might indicate that the USN could have been gathering intel on Houthi missile ops in the region in order better target their missile capabilities.
It also helps that the missiles the Houthis are using aren't that capable.
Edited by AngelusNox on Jan 16th 2024 at 10:52:27 AM
Inter arma enim silent leges
The law in the night
The last two days have been busy for Iran.
Iranian Ballistic Missiles Strike Facilities In Iraq
Strikes on the Erbil in the Kurdish region of Iraq.Reportedly it destroyed the mansion of Peshraw Dizayee, a Kurdish businessman, killing him and his family. IRGC claimed they hit a "Mossad" base in Iraq.
Iran attacks alleged militant bases in Pakistan; Islamabad says ‘unprovoked’ strikes kill 2 children
It also attacked what Iran described as a "terrorist" cell in Pakistan hitting a Mosque.
Iran Executed Its Farthest Ballistic Missile Strike Ever With New Weapon
The strike targeted Syria’s Idlib province, which puts Israel on the effective range of the missile. Showcasing that Iran can hit targets up to 1,450Km with its Kheibar Shekan Medium Range Ballistic Missile.
Yemen-Bound Missile Parts, Sensor Systems Seized In SEAL Raid
A dhow ship boarded in the coast of Somalia was carrying missile components to Yemen, the parts are compatible with the Iranian made A Sh M missiles used in Iran the C-802 which is a derivative of a Chinese design, during the boarding two Navy SEA Ls went missing, Search and Rescue mission is still ongoing.
Iran is dead set on pissing off everyone around them as much as possible.
Edited by AngelusNox on Jan 17th 2024 at 5:02:48 PM
Inter arma enim silent leges
Sri Lankan's Navy due to deploy one of its Advanced Offshore Patrol Vessels. Local news didn't say which one.