War in Ukraine

Based on what? These protests are getting lots of news yes, but his own support base is still solid.

I think he will make it to 2015, but it is unlikely he will get another term in office.

edited 15th Dec '13 5:47:39 PM by DeviantBraeburn

Indeed.

"The poll shows a steadily deteriorating support for Yanukovych who is expected to seek re-election to the second five-year term in office in March 2015."

I expect he will leave even before scheduled elections based on my assumption that without an EU deal, the Ukrainian economy will be stuck in the crapper. Voters arent going to like that.

Opposition leader and world heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko has retired from boxing to focus on the situation in Ukraine. Presumably, then, the opposition are gearing up for the long-haul.

Russia's offering to bail them out. So I wouldn't make that assumption.

Russians dont vote in Ukraine.

Neither does the EU. And unlike the EU Russia is currently offering financial aid.

There is a widespread (and roughly accurate) perception in Ukraine that the EU deal would help the economy in the long run, while the Russian aid will simply prolong things as they are. Since very few Ukrainians are happy with the status quo, most of them support the EU deal. When Y failed to deliver on his promise to sign it, public opinion turned significantly against him (this in addition to the protests). Since no one expects the economy to grow very much now, public frustration with the Y administration is unlikely to go away.

Uh no. Most don't support the EU. Support for and against is roughly equal at about 40-45% with the remaining 10-20% supporting the Eurasian Union. That isn't to say those against are in favor of Russia's Eurasian Union, but they aren't gonna automatically go to the EU either. They're likely as not going to accept Russian assistance. They may not support Russia after in their customs union, but it may keep them from doing anything that stops the aid flow either. And for Russia that is enough.

Also, the assumption that the EU is better for Ukraine than Russia is just that: an assumption. The EU is overextending itself and won't be able to help Ukraine as much as everyone wants them to. Nevermind the fact that the political climate in Ukraine is such that harsh terms of any kind will doom any politician, moreso than the current protests.

On the other hand, no one has gotten polonium poisoning for speaking critically about the EU, and they do tend to have a rather lower rate of politically driven criminal prosecutions of critics...

It's also hard to say how much of the government's support is legit due to its heavy use of astroturfing.

I overstated the case a bit.

On the one hand: "A clear majority of Ukrainians is dissatisfied with the socio-political situation in the country, with 87 percent displeased with the economy and 79 percent expressing the same opinion on the political state of affairs, according to a survey conducted by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)."

And: "The survey findings indicate that a majority of Ukrainians believe that the country is on the wrong track and headed toward instability (58 percent), up from 2012 findings (53 percent). Responses on several questions point to specific economic concerns, including inflation (56 percent), poverty (51 percent), unemployment (50 percent) and corruption (47 percent)."

On the other hand: "Respondents were also asked about Ukraine possibly taking steps to join the European Union (EU) or the Customs Union. Opinions are divided, with 37 percent of Ukrainians indicating support for the country to join the EU and 33 percent indicating preference for the Customs Union."

I stand by my initial assessment, however, if, as I assume, Ukraine's economy is going to remain stagnant for the foreseeable future, it's hard to see how Yanukovych can survive politically. "The percent expressing little or no confidence in Yanukovych has risen from 59 percent in 2012 to 69 percent in this year’s survey."

"Every authority comes from God no matter what it is"

Oy.

It's true that in the East, ordinary people have very little sympathy for the protests. It's like Occupy here, conservatives in Ukraine assume that they protesters are slacker college students who are trying to avoid accepting responsibility or the necessity of working hard. It doesnt help that they can realistically expect unemployment to go way up once the barriers to trade with Western Europe go down. On the radio they were interviewing someone from a train factory in East Ukraine who claimed that 100% of their sales go to Russia. Assuming that Europeans what better trains for less money than the Russians are willing to buy, that factory wont survive a trade deal with the EU. So it isnt all astro-turfing.

The thing is, unemployment will go up even as consumer prices go down (and quality improves). In the long run (some number of years) employment even in the East would recover, and everyone would be better off. But that's cold comfort to someone who expects to lose their job right now.

It's somewhat like the situation when Germany united. In that case, the East Germans had the West German gov'ts commitment to help them with special programs. These were in fact delivered, and by all accounts eastern Germany is better off than ever before. But the gov't in Ukraine is against this deal, and certainly isnt going to promise any special programs to help East Ukraine adjust to the transition.

Ukraine just signed an economic deal with Ukraine, with Russia buying Kiev's debt and slashing gas prices. [1]

...........d'oh!

I mean Russia signed a deal with Ukraine.

Protesters clash with police in Kiev.

Ukraine court outlaws major demonstrations in central Kyiv.

Ukraine protesters defy ban on anti-government demonstrations.

Dozens wounded in Kiev violence as anti-government protests escalate.

Look like the Nazis are out in force on both sides. A photo from a clash between police and pro-EU protesters.◊

Any protest movement inevitably attracts the lunatic fringe, like moths to a light (or flies to shite, depending on one's view!), regardless of legitimacy. Plenty of nutters jumped on the Occupy and anti-War bandwagons - probably to the immense disquiet of the sincere people behind them - but it doesn't necessarily taint the movement as a whole. It doesn't surprise me to see Der Fuehrer's groupies taking a golden opportunity for a scrap with the police.

In this case, though, they appear to be staging a hostile takeover of the Euromaidan protests, and they really aren't fucking around. The violence has got a lot more extreme, a lot more organised, and a lot more swastika-daubed. To be clear, the pro-Russian side has Nazis too, mostly imported from Russian white-supremacist groups - my point is that we currently seem to be reaching the tipping point where the moderates have either failed or been abandoned, and the extremists are rapidly overtaking the message.

edited 20th Jan '14 3:20:04 PM by Iaculus

Vitaly Klitschko will sort them out

That might be the case, but I don't see the Ukrainian liberal-left going down sans a fight. And I think a lot of the feelings are to do with gladness that someone is fighting back against the police. If the protesters achieve their objectives, I doubt the neo-Nazis will have much staying power.