War in Ukraine

Look it up.

Sorry

The Nationalists are "Ukraine, right or wrong!" And the radicals are "Bring down the Oligarchs!" They were partners of convenience during the Maydan uprising, but really they have little in common.

edited 14th Sep '15 6:55:30 PM by DeMarquis

Let's not get carried away here. Remember that the radicals got about 5% of the vote all combined, and the nationalists (at least Lyashko's party) didn't do much better. While they may pick up a little more support if the current government fails, they still don't represent the majority opinion in the country by any means.

This poll from a couple months ago indicates that if the elections were to be re-run now, Poroshenko would still win, and Tymoshenko would take second place. That's not too unthinkable. Shinra, you follow South Asian politics, so you should be familiar with the idea of anti-incumbency voting — basically, the idea that the party in power is unable to solve all the problems in a poor society with weak institutions, so it inevitably becomes less popular as time goes on and then often gets voted out at the next elections, creating cycles that go back and forth perpetually over time. I see no reason to think why things would be any different in Ukraine.

The one other thing I might mention would be that a Poroshenko failure would lead to a greater fractionalization overall — people upset with anti-corruption failures might vote for Samopomich, Easterners souring on the current government might support Opposition Bloc members, and so on. Basically, it could create a situation similar to 2006-10 where forming a stable government is impossible. But that's a different thing than saying the country would turn radical or nationalist.

edited 15th Sep '15 7:22:59 AM by BokhuraBurnes

All that is true.

A few things however: One, Support seems to be dropping at an alarming rate, going by recent reporting, meaning that fracturing of the political scene may be more of a when rather than an if. Two, there has been a concerted effort to keep the Opposition Bloc from ever retaking power by hunting down the members and slapping them with charges. Therefore, even in a free for all, most of the parties would come from the center or the west. Finally, there are only so many political view points that will get traction. There could be a ridiculous number of parties next election, but only a handful of views. It is my opinion (and I could be wrong, but I can only go with what I have) that the nationalists and radicals will take the lions share, maybe not by those two parties precisely, but in terms of viewpoint.

edited 15th Sep '15 3:14:19 PM by FFShinra

War does tend to polarize opinion.

What evidence do you have that most Ukrainians are more motivated by nationalist/radicalist concerns than by other factors (i.e. attempts to reduce corruption, support to people from one's regional base, or putting someone in power who can deliver political patronage to the home district)?

In general, I would be skeptical that the factors we in the international community focus on are necessarily the same ones that are going to motivate a grandmother from Dneprpetrovsk. Otherwise, I find it very hard to explain the large number of oligarch-supported independents who get local seats.

Mostly Emuran's reporting on who is getting support, and I don't mean radicals in the small 'r', I mean the Radical Party, based in center Ukraine. They and the various nationalist parties are courting the anti-corruption message, regardless if they are actually going to follow through. It has nothing to do with the people's wishes, it has to do with who is the most organized to say they will do the people's wishes. It won't be the Opposition Bloc, which is being gutted as I mentioned earlier. It will be the parties based out West or in the center. Maybe throw in a Saakashvili-led stalking horse from Odessa for good measure.

edited 15th Sep '15 4:07:15 PM by FFShinra

Well, right now there is no way to hold an election in the Donbass, so...

There is nothing from Kharkov or Dniepropetrovsk or Zaporozhia either, so thats not much of an excuse.

Dedicated anti-corruption voters would be more likely to vote for Samopomich (or possibly a Saakashvili-led party) — those are the ones that have really focused on anti-corruption reforms. The Radical party has more of a muddled nationalist/populist/statist message that can attract some voters, but the party also relies upon the personal popularity of Lyashko — and while leaving the government means that he can rail against it, it also denies him influence, which is problematic for a personality-based politician.

Perhaps even more to the point, it also denies him patronage revenue. And many Ukrainian voters are not voting based on issue-targeted ideals, but rather on concerns such as "who can bring money back to my home district so we can have jobs/roads/etc." or "who did my factory director/principal/local mayor/etc. say I should vote for" — and to get those vote banks, you need to have funds.

Which is why the oligarchs aren't going to go away, despite everything.

Samopomich is an example of a western-based party, which is broadly nationalist (even if they aren't outright Banderites). They will have to steal the voting block from such entities from their local constituents, which means as elections get closer, they'll start saying much the same rhetoric, if they aren't already.

edited 16th Sep '15 7:46:41 AM by FFShinra

The Poroshenko administration has just banned around four hundred journalists from entering Ukraine, because "national security threat".

A sentence including the words "haven't", "learned" and "anything" is coming to mind.

Samopomich are shameless populists without a clear ideology, so they'll jump on the nationalist bandwagon if that gets them votes.

The Opposition Block is milking their victim status very easily - especially as it's basically a shell, all the real power-brokers have either left for Russia or other political parties.

edited 16th Sep '15 1:56:10 PM by Emuran

I wonder if Saakashvili replaced all of Poroshenko's mirrors with pictures of himself.

More evidence Saakashvili is angling for a higher post?

Odesa to be renamed Saakashvilia.

Some of that reads like a GOP wishlist...

More to the point, some of those sound suspect (particularly the proposals for civil service reform) and the complete withdrawal of water use and waste disposal regulations)....

"Borovik said that members of Saakashvili’s team were “worried that a year-and-a-half after the revolution all these changes have not been made. We are liberalizing the market and downsizing government, and all functions that can be carried out by private businesses must be carried out by them.”

Hmm. Well, if we are being generous, then bear in mind Ukraine still operates under what is effectively the old Soviet model of government. Compared to that, any reform would look superficially like a US Republican Party/Neocon wish list.

If we are not, well then, how many Russian tropers here have told us that the period of unbridled privatization in Russia during the 1990's caused psychological scars that have yet to heal? Those who forget the past...

It may be academic- what are the chances that much of this will actually pass the legislature?

The attitude of many Saakashvili allies was, "since we're too poor to have an effective government, and corruption means that most of anything we do will go to waste anyway, why not simply get rid of the bureaucracy?"

I'm far from a libertarian or neo-con, but there is a certain logic to this argument.

I just think, with civil service in particular, he's opening the door for his allies to control the government in the name of privitzation. I think Odessa is getting the short end of the straw in this.

Besides, is Odessa itself in economic distress or the rest of Ukraine. I'd understand of it was Kharkov, given the glut of steel on the world market and the current problems in Donbass, but Odessa doesn't strike me as all that economically problematic, especially since its now the sole port of Ukraine (Mariupol doesn't count since the Sea of Azov is under Russian control via Crimea).

No one does anything in politics if it isnt in their self-interest, but that doesnt necessarily mean the idea itself should be dismissed out of hand. I can also see arguments that one should try reform in the least distressed areas first- low hanging fruit and all that. Short term easy success buys you credibility to try something harder.

You run up to the problem of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" in the areas where you don't need it. If you want low hanging fruit, you try to fix the issues in areas that are problematic but politically stable and not all that strategic so that if it fails, you don't risk something disastrous.

In that sense, the reform of the police in Kiev is brilliant.

As for the reform ideas themselves, I think alternatives should at least be proposed. Letting Saakashvili run wild hardly seems prudent, even if the ideas MIGHT be sound.

edited 19th Sep '15 10:59:43 AM by FFShinra

Agreed.

Ukraine to sell cruiser to fund new ships Cross posted with the Navy thread. It's for the best. The Ukrainian Navy doesn't need capital ships, it needs an an area denial strategy. And the Navy itself is probably low on Ukraine's priorities now,even their military spending I imagine is focused on the Army first, the Air Force second, and the Navy a distant third.

That thing was a white elephant even before the war. Nice to know they even remembered it existed though.