War in Ukraine

I'm not. The West are no saints, and Putin isnt "evil", but he is clearly in the wrong here, and if he gets away with what he is trying to do (pretty likely, actually) the world in general is going to be less safe than if he had never done it.

edited 26th Aug '14 7:35:18 PM by Demarquis

IIRC, there were an article some months ago detailing of an intercepted shipment of “non-lethal” military gear such as uniforms and body armor into western Ukraine from Poland; NATO member or not, Warsaw’s traditional beef with the Russians and its geographical proximity to the Eastern European crises give it legitimate motivations to back Kiev with whatever support it can. Due to the fact that the Polish military is notable for its continued use of former Soviet equipment despite political alignments towards NATO, the Poles can theoretically send in some of their stockpiled ex-Soviet gear to the Ukrainians, who would then rapidly repaint them as soon as they finish crossing the border. Perhaps one the reasons, apart from attrition and casualties, of why the Ukrainians have put a lull on their aviation sorties is because they're waiting to get some former Polish Migs refit and rearmed before continuing the air campaign.

edited 26th Aug '14 8:53:28 PM by FluffyMcChicken

I've also heard a few stories about the US scrambling some military training advisers and basic equipment such as trucks, spare parts, ammo, etc. And the fact that a US drone was possibly shot down near the Russian Border isn't implausible either.

If Ukraine is going to get support its going to be quiet and its going to be minimal. Only one nation wants Ukraine enough to go war.

If anyone is wondering about the rebel/Russian offensive there is an interesting blog post by a pro-russian blogger on the situation from the retaking of slavyansk to the preparations for the rebel offensive. http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/73022.html

It is pro-Russian so it is biased but its interesting background info none the less.

edit:fixed

edited 26th Aug '14 11:49:59 PM by sayting

Colonel Cassad isn't exactly a rebel. Also, Cassad likes to feed false information.

Ukrainians are suffering heavy defeats in the South.

I am heavily biased, if we're having that discussion.

edited 27th Aug '14 4:43:14 AM by emuran

The rebels have shelled Novoazovsk

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28951319

I wonder if that's wise. Pissing off your supposed base by imposing too much hardship can quite backfire on you.

If what's wise?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28949582

Just journalists being attacked in Russia, nothing new about that. Still if what they say is true, then it is defiantly suspicious.

Novoazovsk has fallen.

https://twitter.com/shelomovskiy/status/504598362898051072

https://twitter.com/Henry_Langston/status/504628094733672450

Hey you live in Ukraine. You're entitled to have bias.

edited 27th Aug '14 7:35:20 AM by sayting

Shit, so how bad is this?

I don't live in Ukraine. Also - ed about Novoazovsk.

Pretty bad. The Ukrainians have suffered heavy defeats in the last few days, and the rebels have actually begun fighting proffessionally.

Looking at the Russian Twitter - it's legit. There have also been reports of burials in other cities, with interviews with parents. Maybe we'll get more photos in the next few days.

And the Minsk talks pretty much failed, by the way.

No surprise about the Minsk talks. So with the recent Ukrainian defeats it seems to be like the war could stretch on until at least the end of the year. Unless Russia decides to intervene (officially) of course.

edited 27th Aug '14 9:15:41 AM by JackOLantern1337

The Ukrainians have counterattacked at Novoazovsk and Illovaysk.

The Russian Committee of Soldier Mothers has released a list of 400(!) Russian soldiers that may have died in Ukraine. Those Ukrainian defeats sounding less and less surprising.

edited 27th Aug '14 9:29:56 AM by emuran

If an organization like that publishes information, it should be taken seriously.

It would be good if you could provide a link.

edited 27th Aug '14 10:03:07 AM by JackOLantern1337

Here's one source (in Russian)

As far as I know, Novoazovsk is not controlled by the army or the separatists at the moment. The reports are contradictive, though.

As I was writing this, DPR tanks have entered Novoazovsk.

edited 27th Aug '14 12:04:43 PM by emuran

I think we've finally switched from the situation of Russia merely supporting the separatists with advisors/volunteers/firepower, and probably coordinating their actions, to engaging in a flat-out invasion of Ukraine. Putin might not admit it (for a while, at least), but it's hard to construe the sudden surge of manpower along the border, and especially in the Sea of Azov region, as anything else.

As far as I'm concerned (and Shinra, feel free to disagree), this has eliminated any veneer of legitimacy that Russia can claim in the conflict.

edited 27th Aug '14 12:11:38 PM by BokhuraBurnes

Agreed, do you think the west can do any more?

legitimacy is a question of politics, not strategy. The level of support Putin puts in toward the East (or the EU puts in toward the West) doesn't delegitimize the demands of either side themselves. The fact of the matter is, until the two factions themselves can come to an understanding, everything else is just posturing.

And this is why I say the above.

edited 27th Aug '14 12:16:20 PM by FFShinra

A lot of military vehicles are crossing the border under Novoazovsk.

We're gearing up for an escalation, folks. I won't be able to write in the next few days, I'm returning to Ukraine.

That the west can do more (increasing sanctions on Russia, facilitating Ukraine's entry into NATO) is clear. What the west should do is another question. I think that some western commentators have taken Russia's bad behavior as an excuse to paint Ukraine as an innocent victim without blame, something that I think papers over a lot of the problems within Ukraine right now (corruption, economic stagnation, political incompetence and infighting, unsolved regional grievances, and so on). For this reason, it may not be worth the west spending too much political capital in support of a government which is a bit of a basket case. On the other hand, there is real value in upholding the international norm that countries do not invade other countries without the sanction of international law from a legitimate body such as the UN, not just for the sake of Ukraine but also for preventing other regional conflicts (in the South China Sea, the Middle East, and so on).

In short, if I were a policymaker, I probably wouldn't want to risk a Russia-NATO war over Ukraine, but I would strongly consider severe punitive sanctions on Russia (such as those being put on Iran).

That Eastern Ukraine has real grievances I grant. On the other hand, Russia's involvement has gone far beyond what such grievances warrant and has changed the whole scope of the conflict. In one sense, it's moved from Gray-and-Gray Morality to Black-and-Gray Morality, which is unfortunate for the area (and the resolution of said grievances), but necessitates a different kind of reaction from the rest of the world.

Take care of yourself and stay safe.

Also - the US and NATO state the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine.

Ukraine is preparing for a full-scale defense in Mariupol.

edited 27th Aug '14 1:46:58 PM by emuran

@Bokhura - One could say the same about the EU/US initial involvement in the West. That ensured Russia would get involved and up the ante. Now the West is discussing upping the ante on their side. It's a seesaw. Eventually Ukraine itself won't have anything to do with this conflict.

Is there a crisis brewing on Ukraine's western border?