Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital
- over 100,000 by some counts
Ukrainian protesters besiege government building
Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU
Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."
What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.
The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.
EDIT (2/24/2022)
This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the beginning of the revolt in Ukraine that eventually over-threw the dictatorship of the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections soon afterward. As of this writing, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion that began on 2/23, it is not clear whether or for how long Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country.
Statements made nine years ago still seem relevant: "The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country... The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society." Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.
The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.
While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."
This map will help track the latest developments.
Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.
No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.
When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented.
Edited by Tabs on Mar 20th 2022 at 4:26:26 AM
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
"Ukrainian intelligence will start an offensive towards Kharkiv and Sumy oblast in late may or early June."
Does Ukrainian intelligence have enough tanks to take Kharkiv? Well, maybe they will show the Russian army how it is done.
The real question is whether or not the Ukrainians will start a counter-offensive this year, or prefer to wait until next spring.
Given the current situation, I would not say this question is more real than most others.
Cringe but free
Most of the Ukrainian frontline force is made up of middle-aged men who haven't been properly rotated out since the full-scale invasion began. Zelensky just signed a new mobilisation law a couple weeks ago to take in more conscripts without cycling out exhausted combat units. Let's just say that Ukraine has a long way to go towards building the manpower base necessary to return to an offensive footing, thanks in no small part to the GOP's stonewalling of materiel aid.
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
I really hope that Ukraine would not try another full-scale offense for at least two years. Right now Ukrainian army is badly attired, EU military complex is still ramping up production and Soviet stocks in Russia are yet to be depleted. Also with depletion of Soviet-era air defense in Ukraine and difficulty of replacing it with NATO ones (since NATO mostly mount AD systems on aircraft, not ground vehicles) Russia now has more air supremacy. And attacking an opponent who has air supremacy would mean taking heavy casualties at very best. Edit: typos.
Edited by RSunny on May 3rd 2024 at 8:28:12 AM
The issue with that is that Ukraine might not last two more years if it comes down to manpower attrition.
That being said, even if they launched another offensive and miraculously managed to achieve their objective of restoring the pre-war border, I don't think Russia would stop throwing bodies at them anyway.
Edited by amitakartok on May 3rd 2024 at 12:58:54 PM
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
I feel like no one has acknowledged that it was a typo and that Risa edited the post to reflect that Ukraine intelligence expected a Russian offensive over the summer.
Ukrainian military casualties estimated by Russia (which are obviously inflated) - 444k wounded and killed (24 February 2022 – 27 February 2024). Ukraine total population now - around 38m.
French casualties in WW 1 were 1150k dead (only included death from combat) and 4266k wounded.France population in WW 1 - 39.6m.
North Vietnam and Vietcong casualties in 1955-1975 war were around 1100k dead and 600k wounded (313k dead and 1170k wounded for South Vietnam). Vietnam population in 1967 was 39.2m, and North Vietnam and Vietcong obviously didn't have economic support and recruiting pool of all those people, since it was also a civil war.
While both Ukraine and Russia are trying to avoid forced mass conscription, both countries are nowhere near running out of people.
Hearing about this particular drone that the Ukrainians could get.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1786379411924619441
Wasn’t that obvious from the start?
That is true, but the demographics of those countries were pretty different.
Edited by Smeagol17 on May 4th 2024 at 10:00:12 PM
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2024
- Ukraine claims that seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts is the goal of Russian summer offensive.
- US aid arrived.
- Ukraine claims that Russian force in Ukraine have not increased in size significantly, but they are more capable.
- Ukraine claims that Russia is not going to have enough soldiers for large scale operations.
- Ukraine claims that neither side, going to be able to win thought attrition.
- Russia defence minister issues a notably honest assessment of recent advances. Likely to temper domestic expectations.
- Several Russian high level commanders have been replaced.
- NATO is concerned by Russian hybrid operations.
- UK claims that they are going to provide aid in long-term. UK agrees with use of their weapons for strikes within Russia.
- Russia made small advances near Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
- Russian conglomerate Rostec is increasing guided-bomb production, according to its director.
Edited by Risa123 on May 4th 2024 at 11:17:43 AM
King of the Rhino Men
Sadly, that’s debatable. Any short term benefits to actually conquering Ukraine won’t even remotely offset the long term consequences this war will have, but at this point Putin’s made it clear that he will accept nothing short of total victory, even if it means throwing every Russian into the meat grinder until it happens.
And unfortunately for Ukraine, it’s not so much that they have to win the war of attrition, but rather the West does. Because the moment the West stops giving aid (unlikely as it is, but I hope it doesn’t happen anyway), is the moment Ukraine effectively loses the war, unless a miracle happens.
Man best be careful. I hear honesty and competence in Russia comes with a fatal side effect of balcony tripping and funny tasting coffee.
Chain an angry nature god at your own peril.
Disasturbator
care to summarize the link?
New theme music also a box
50 year old resident of Donetsk oblast was conscripted by the Russians. He bid his time, then shot six Russians and deserted.
Surrounded by weirdoes
And forcing people from Ukraine into their army will cause one hell of an outlier.
Wake me up at your own risk.
As I said. Maybe. But I think that most of those who would be especially inclined to desert for ideological reasons have already moved west or even volunteered to the Ukrainian army.
Edited by Smeagol17 on May 4th 2024 at 11:30:03 AM
Lost in Space
We appear to need another reminder:
- Social media posts are not proof that a thing happened, only that a thing was said/claimed. Please find reliable sources when making factual assertions, if possible.
- Identify the source when posting a link. For example, "[Person] on [site] said...". If it is not obvious who they are or why they should be found reliable, also give their credentials.
- Always summarize the content of an external link. If it is a short-form source like an X post, it is acceptable to quote it in its entirety, but its context should also be established.
amitakartok has been suspended for repeatedly violating this rule.
Edited by Fighteer on May 4th 2024 at 5:50:26 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Ukrainian marines engage with Russians in Kherson via the left bank.
Apparently, an explosion took place (didn't clear show who/what set it off, which is good in the sense that it's not showing anything bloody).
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2024
- Russia advanced near Addivka after Ukraine decided to withdraw.
- Russia also advanced near Donetsk City and Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
- Russia is centralizing its control over DNR forces.
- Russia raided supporters of Girkin. This may be prelude for a ban of his movement.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2024
- 76th VDV has been redeployed to Kursk.
- Russia is forming a unit to operated in Kursk-Belgorod direction.
- European intelligence agencies claim that Russia is preparing sabotage across Europe.
- Russian Orthodox Church seized on may 5th holiday to do some propaganda.
- Russia advanced near Kupyansk and Robotyne.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2024
- Russia is purging some officials.
- Ukraine attacked a boat patrol in Crimea.
- Russia may decide to switch sides in Sudanese Civil war. Supporting Sudanese Armed Forces would align Russia with Iran and create opportunities for cooperation. Secondly, Russia may gain naval base in Red Sea.
- Russia advanced northwest of Svatove, near Avdiivka, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in east bank Kherson Oblast.
- Russia continues to work on their plans to conscript Ukrainians.
King of the Rhino Men
What would they gain from a base in The Red Sea, aside from it aiding whatever they’re doing in Sudan?
Are they trying to build up a fleet that they could launch from an area Ukraine can’t really reach or something?
Chain an angry nature god at your own peril.
For those interested to keep an eye on the foreign volunteers in the Ukrainian military, the Internationa Legion has a vid on three Canadian volunteers involved in Avdiivka.