Turkish Politics

The refugee deal is not that important anymore because the Balkan route is sealed shut anyway.

I suspect however that Merkel believes confronting one autocrate per continent suffices. Things could get really bad if Trump, Putin and Erdogan decided that their disdain for her is one thing that unites them.

She's also due to meet the Orange Toupet in 2 weeks, face to hairpiece.

I'm curious about what he'll be trying to rile her up, especially since he likes Putin so much (who tried to bully Merkel in their first meeting).

Merkel seems like she's hard to rile up, and she's been in this game long enough to run circles around Trump. If Trudeau managed to get through a meeting without causing a diplomatic incident, she should be able to hold her (and the EU's) ground.

Helps that Mutti is usually subtle in her burns.

If anything positive he has done in his life, Horst Seehofer probably gave her the patience of a saint.

I'm btw down for 5 euro about Trump spoiling the visit with a tweet.

edited 6th Mar '17 7:19:53 AM by 3of4

Who would bet against that? Are you offering 10000/1 odds payouts?

I was talking about Trump spoiling the visit with a tweet (Even if it doesn't rile Chancellor Merkel, it'll certainly cast a shadow over the meeting in the US press).
Trump tweeting out something foolish is one of the few things in statistics that one can claim has a 100% probability of occurrence.

edited 6th Mar '17 8:33:52 AM by CenturyEye

Merkel doesn't allow anyone to rile her up. She has already drawn the line in the sand when it comes to Trump and while a direct confrontation is not her style, if she is forced to, she can only win in one. It will make her look like a strong leader when she says "No" to Trump. Erdogan is a little bit more complicated, because unlike Trump he actually knows what he is doing.

If she can handle Putin then Trump should be a cakewalk.

Let's put it this way: There is a reason why despots from around the world hate her, and it is not just that she is a woman in a very powerful position. They also hate that there is little they can do to her as long as the Germans insist that she is their chancellor...and even if she ends up not getting reelected, there is a good chance that she will get a high ranking position somewhere else in world politics.

I could totally see her ending up as president of the European Council one day.

Anyway the situation with Turkey is complicated.

On the one side, there is probably no country that has more leverage over Turkey than Germany right now. Germany is Turkeys biggest trading partner, Germans are the second biggest group of tourists travelling to Turkey and Ankara has increased efforts tried to get German companies invest in the countries, especially now when its' economy is slowing down. (I am not kidding, according to one recent article in German, high-ranking Turkish officials are trying to get German support right now).

https://magazin.spiegel.de/SP/2017/9/149766084/?utm_source=spon&utm_campaign=centerpage

So in short, if Germany pulled a Russia it would probably seriously damage Turkey. That being said, it is unlikely that his would really weaken Erdogan's domestic support, since he is already playing the "We against the arrogant EU", apparantly many Turkish newspapers have recently published a lot of articles claiming that Europe, and particulary Germany are trying to prevent Turkey from becoming a truly powerful country. Berlin would also loose its' last way of exerting influence on Ankara, and I could totally see Ankara retaliate by arresting any journalist that has ties to Germany.

Additionally even if Berlin would succesfully put pressure on Ankara, any destabilization of the country could hardly be seen as a success, since the last we need right now are morer refugees trying to enter Europe.

Let's put it this way: As long as Turkey sticks to its border, I doubt that Merkel will go directly against Erdogan. At the end of the day, it is pretty much Turkey's issue who they elect...but naturally membership in the EU is currently off the table, since Turkey is further away from fulfilling the requirements than ever (and aren't we glad that we stalled Turkey joining the EU for so long? We have enough problems with Hungary and Poland).

But that is not what I am actually worried about. I am more worried about the threat Erdogan fanatics become for the inner safety of Germany. We already had Turks fighting Kurds, now we add to this Turks fighting other Turks. This nonsense has no business to happen here. It is high time that the German police is allowed to show a little bit more strength when it comes to matters like this. We can't have people living in our state who don't respect the rules of our state and undermine our justice system. And above all, we need to show support to the moderate Turks (and Muslims, for that matter). They barely have a voice, but they are the ones we need to listen to when it comes to what needs to be done. And in case you are wondering: They also say that the German state has to enforce the rules stricter and add some new ones.

This post was thumped by the Eldritch Flyswatter of Horror

That's not what Swanpride said. At all.

It's about Erdogan supporters trying to silence criticism over here. It's about them assaulting or threatening Kurds and other people they deem "not sufficiently Turkish", like they did with the Turkish-German parliament members who recognised the Armenian Genocide.

It's about a government-related religious organisation using the mosques they sponsored to spy on potential dissidents in Germany.

In short: It's about the Turkish government trying to destabilise our country.

Seriously, can we maybe not put words into other people's mouths to shut them down?

Also: Death threats and physical assault are NOT valid forms of political opposition to anything. If Erdogan's supporters try this shit here, they can leave or get arrested for breaking the law.

edited 6th Mar '17 12:07:42 PM by DrunkenNordmann

Sweet. Can we throw out the violent Reichsbürgers too while we're at it? Maybe send them to Liechtenstein if they like living in a monarchy so much.

I exaggerate somewhat, but still. If we're doing an 'obey the justice system or GTFO' option, that seems like a logical next step. I, for one, would vote for a system like this.

Now, if you're just talking about locking them up after due process and if that leads to deportation in the case of recent migrant arrivals, that's a different story, and still immensely disappointing, because I would like to see what happens to the weepy weapons-hoarding manchildren when they get kicked over the border.

Just don't send them here, please. We like our country weapons-free and I for one don't need more crazy monarchists on this side of the border.

edited 6th Mar '17 12:15:24 PM by math792d

These morons are still German citizens, though. A lot of Erdogan's supporters are not. They're Turkish citizens living in Germany for most of their lives, with a Turkish passport and voting in Turkish elections.

So they actually have a place they can go to if they keep stirring up shit over here. :/

Honestly, if you go to another country and aren't even bothering to respect the law, what are you even doing in said country?

edited 6th Mar '17 12:16:54 PM by DrunkenNordmann

Sorry, I overreacted. Was pissed by something and vented at an undeserving target.

For the record, I live in a street with both Kurdish and Turkish shops. Things got ugly here already a couple of times and only the police prevented the worst. I really don't want to think what happens after the referendum, or if the Turkish military starts to seriously attack Kurdish troops in North Syria.

The police cracked down on a group of Reichsbürger just last month, with multiple arrests for illegal firearms and similar. We have some problems in Saxony, where the police is either incompetent or too ready to look into the other direction (or both), but overall, our police does crack down on right-wing group all the time. Hell, we have tried to get rid of the NPD in years, but so far it was only possible to arrest NPD members, not to dissolve the whole party. I wish I would see the same energy used on the right wing Turks, our police uses to target potential terrorists and German extremists.

edited 6th Mar '17 12:56:42 PM by Swanpride

@Zarastro - I'd be careful of assuming the Balkans are buttoned up. Macedonia is destabilizing, Bosnia is not far behind, and another refugee/migrant wave of millions will not be stopped by a barrier (or rather, it can be, but the optics of that would hurt Europe by villanizing them while making Erdogan look like a hero).

Tensions Escalate Between Berlin and Erdogan

In short, Germany holds the purse strings of Turkey. Economically Turkey is very dependent on the EU and is already in trouble because Erdogan has ensured that tourists have started to avoid the country.

Well, there was article some time ago about Erdogan's efforts to shut down the Istanbul bar scene (among other things). I don't know if it's as bad as the Trump slump, but when one looks to Saudi Arabia for inspiration, expect consequences...

edited 8th Mar '17 4:44:55 AM by CenturyEye

Probably because its easy to support the Strong Leader when you don't face the consequences yourself.

Also, diasporas and immigrant communities are generally more conservative and strict than the ones living in their country of birth. It's about maintaining cultural identity in a foreign place.