The nuclear programme of Iran

So as not to derail the "would Russia back Iran in a war?" thread even more, starting this doozy:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45209267/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

So Iran is in direct violation of the non-proliferation treaty that they signed. What now? Sanctions, or strikes?

NPT doesn't allow strikes. It'd be sanctions.

Repost:

They in for it now. An Israeli strike to put a stop to it is now inevitable and there's nothing anyone can do to contest that on moral grounds.

Considering the fact that the nuclear facilities are underground and specifically designed to survive air strikes, do you think Israel even can take them out with an air strike?

Tom, you said the exact same thing about North Korea. More likely sanctions and Israel won't strike until a missle is built and tested.

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?

...This isn't a dream, is it?

How likely is Israel to just keep sabre-rattling, and not much else?

Israel has the balls and the equipment to make a strike. It's a question of whether it is in their best interest. I'll assume they know where to strike, the question is if they take losses or if it'd be purely damage against Iran.

The other thing is that Iran could open up those secret facilities and say "Hey see, no weapons, you suspected wrongly" and try to diffuse the situation.

For the rest of the world, they're likely to just move ahead with more sanctions.

With this report they no longer have any credibility to prove otherwise.

Gee, Iran is building Nukes? Who would've thunk it...?

Possible solution: Israel gives their units up, and Iran scraps their program.

Not-really-a-solution: Israel scrambels a bombing mission and life as we know it gets real 'interesting'.

The pessimist in me is placing money on option two.

Happiness is zero-gee with a sinus cold.

We really don't need more wars right now. Sanction like it's going out of style but wars are just to expensive right now.

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?

The Israelis do not have the capacity to end the Iranian program by air strikes. If they can use Saudi bases (not impossible) or US bases at the Gulf they can reach Iran (but only then), but even then the Iranian program is way too decentralized for the Israeli airforce to completely destroy it.

Of course. that doesn't mean Israel won't try. Which most likely will have desastrous consequences.

Considering that Israel has nukes itself, yes, I do think such strikes can be contested very much on moral grounds.

Unbent, Unbowed, Unbroken. Unrelated ME1 Fanfic

The moral standpoint of them getting nukes is far from cut and dry. In a neighborhood where everyone relevant either has nukes or is under nuclear protection, this was gonna happen one way or another. Doesn't matter if it was the Shah the Theocracy, or a liberal democracy, this was going to happen. Its a matter of pride and a matter of wanting to attain parity with its neighbors.

At this point I feel like, as sad as it makes me, we have to destroy Iran as a nation. And yes, I am sad about it - the Iranian people aren't really to blame here, more so the crappy situation that the USA created with our own short-sighted goals of preventing "socialism" from spreading during the Cold War. I rather feel like we are Dr. Frankenstein who has to put down his monster, but we HAVE to do it - a nuclear Iran is only a single step away from terrorists detonating an atomic bomb in the middle of Manhattan, and the repercussions of that are too frightening to imagine.

So once more, we have to go to war in the name of our own self-defense, and the sad cycle of hatred continues.

After this war is over, the best way to divide Iran up would be to give part of it to Afghanistan, part of it to Pakistan, and use the north west corner to form Kurdistan, while the south west goes to Iraq.

@pvtnum: The possible solution is pretty much unviable too. Israel won't give up their nuclear weapons 'cos, well, of all the reasons they have them in the first place. No-one would believe them if they said they did. And Iran wouldn't stop weapons development even if they got conclusive proof of such because they're doing this to ward off the United States too, and because of the reasons FF Shinra mentioned.

I don't think the US has the funds to go to war yet again, at least not with a force the size of Iran's. If it did, would the US then have the funds to divide up Iran and stop it from just rejoining again? That would probably demand a massive, permanent occupation force.

edited 8th Nov '11 11:17:07 AM by betaalpha

@ Mygod

That's an insane point of view.

You're speaking from a nation that sports more nuclear weapons than everybody else (minus Russia) combined plus an order of magnitude. And then you say "Well gee, Iran is on its way to get nukes within 10 years, guess we have to MURDER 10s of millions of people". What the hell man?

@ Tom

Well if we can force Iran to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions (how, I'm not sure, since in all regards it is in their best interest and so long as Israel has nukes, they'd be personally crazy not to get nukes themselves), then the situation would be diffused.

I think generally, the west has nothing to offer them that would persuade them to drop the pursuit and we've no carrot worth shoving in their face. We're not going to launch nukes at them just because they are merely getting nukes and we certainly aren't going to engage in armed conflict over it.

@ pvtnum/betaalpha

Well the IAEA could verify if Israel gave up nukes.

If we put forward that plan in the UN, that both Israel and Iran give up nukes under the NPT, and one or the other rejects it, then we have very good political willpower to do something more drastic. As it stands, it's just going to devolve into another one of those stupid cold war divisions in the UNSC.

edited 8th Nov '11 11:16:45 AM by breadloaf

We don't have to destroy them. MAD is very much in effect. If a nuke goes off from now on, they'll be first to go. Only if the west is stupid enough to nuke them first (and they are not), would Iran actually get a legit chance to USE said nukes.

edited 8th Nov '11 11:15:56 AM by FFShinra

A MAD situation isn't desirable but it's better then the alternative.

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?

MGIFOS:

I would MUCH RATHER have Iran have a Green Revolution and kick the religious fundamentalists out of power and head for a more rational secularized state of affairs. Ideally, they would do this without us having to lift a finger, except to extend an olive branch in their direction, and possibly to ensure that the failing regime doesn't start tossing gunfire at anything that moves, aka, civilians. Then I'd smell another Libya thing going down.

I would much rather this happens sooner rather than later.

Think bigger than just us putting boots on the ground, or dropping bombs.

Happiness is zero-gee with a sinus cold.

That's why I think we should grant the lands to other countries - it would be a good way to get them on board, if they knew that its a land-grab.

Also, instead of Kurdistan, because thinking about it that would piss off Turkey, let's give that corner of Iran to Turkey, so they have access to the Caspian Sea.

Also, its not insane, its self-preservation. If you think Iran wouldn't give countries like Syria the power of the bomb, you are a naive fool. And if nukes start getting passed around like candy on Halloween, its only a matter of time until they get into the hands of someone stupid enough to actually use them. I'm sick and tired of using the concept of the right to self-determination as an excuse for allowing authoritarian regimes with evil intentions to get the nuclear bomb. There is a limit, and that limit is nuclear missiles in the hands of theocrats and presidents-for-life. We have to put our foot down and stop this now, before its too damned late.

That would be best, but they had a perfect opportunity and it failed miserably. I don't think we can expect an overthrow of the corrupt government anytime soon, sadly.

edited 8th Nov '11 11:25:19 AM by MyGodItsFullofStars

@ pvtnum

I like Green Movement as well, but don't mistake them for being pro-US. They're still pissed at the US :P

It IS insane man. NK was a much more likely state to directly attack the US and guess what? sanctions and bribes were all that was needed to make them stfu.

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?

breadloaf: Yeah, we won't be all huggy-buddy-buddy with the Greens, but it is a couple of steps in the right direction, and I can live with that.

^ True. Although I'd love it if they would grow some brains-stems and actually work out some sort of rational deal with the SK. Maybe once Dear Leader croaks.

edited 8th Nov '11 11:28:28 AM by pvtnum11

Happiness is zero-gee with a sinus cold.

You seriosuly think you can just go and destroy a nation, naton that has very strong identity and think you can jsut divide it with neighbors?

I tell you what, if USA went and totally destroyed Iranian goverment, it would be clusterfuck that would make Iraq look like toddlers play. Nobody would want to have anything with that.

We really do not need to be entertaining an invasion of Iran. We already had a goat-rope with Iraq, why would we wish to repeat that? We're into S&M and just love inflicting pain on everybody, including ourselves, while our military-industrial complex drools over the thought of more profits?

Happiness is zero-gee with a sinus cold.

@ pvtnum

Yeah, actually and with a Green government, they'd be more willing to listen about nuclear weapons since most of the green movement people are anti-nuke.

I just wonder if sanctions will work for Iran. Unlike North Korea, they have the resources to go ahead with nuclear weapons, not many but some (I mean if Pakistan can do it, then Iran must be able to do so). It's not politically viable for the US to make direct military action against Iran but they can do so through Israel.

But Israeli strikes against Iran, regardless of whether they have a nuclear weapons program, would galvanise the population against Israelis.

I think the American population is into S&M. Just look at the government they elected! :ha:

edited 8th Nov '11 11:33:24 AM by breadloaf