NWEO: Europe, Doomed Moral Victor

So my thread on the New World Economic Order has died a bit, partially because it wasn't focused enough, and partially because I failed to give examples straight from economist Shapiro's own mouth (so people were confused about the justifications).

Because I still think its an interesting topic, figured I'd break it up into smaller chunks, starting with what Shapiro thinks will happen to Europe in the next 20 years. If you didn't catch the first thread, this is an except from a book Robert J. Shapiro, former undersecretary to the treasury for Bill Clinton, wrote called "Futurecast", in which he predicts the future of world economics:

"In most respects, globalization, demography, and their combination find China and the United States in stronger positions than Europe or Japan. While the numbers of elderly people will increase faster in both America and China than in Europe or Japan over the next fifteen years, the number of working-age Americans and Chinese also will grow. It will make all the difference in the world. In 2020, elderly Americans, neccesarily contributing little to productivity, will still number less than 28 percent of those working, and elderly Chinese will equal less than 20 percent of China's workers. Compare that to Europe and Japan, where the elderly will equal more than 50 percent of their workers. Moreover, America's social security system provides much smaller benefits than most other advanced nations (with the notable exceptions of the United Kingdom and Ireland), and the vast majority of Chinese recieve no public retirement or health-care services at all. These differences may make European societies more just and equal, and certainly more generous. But the American and Chinese approaches can sustain themselves over the next generation, while Japan and Europe's systems cannot..."

"...Japan and much of Europe cling to old commitments and hopes that globalization and their own demographics will no longer let them realize, which deeply impedes their ability to change. If they cannot manage to do so in the next decade, the world as it is will inexorably erode their economic well-being, political influence, and many of their cherished social values."

So, is Europe the Doomed Moral Victor? Are the very values that Europeans hold so dear morally right but economically wrong? Is Shapiro right, or mistaken? Have at it.

Europeans will accept huge numbers of immigrants to keep the ratio of workers to retirees stable.

It's their only option, aside from fuck the elderly: Young people (especially knowing that they won't be able to retire in return) are not going to tolerate half their paycheck being taken away to take care of some old bum... And they have no reason to.

If the old farts want to keep getting their paychecks, they'll have to open the doors for immigration, it's that simple.

edited 16th Oct '11 1:10:04 PM by SavageHeathen

edited 16th Oct '11 1:11:00 PM by whaleofyournightmare

I die a little bit every time Savage brings his "elderly people can go die" hard-on into a discussion. It's rare, though, so I think I'll be ok.

~shrug~

The whole First World is a Doomed Moral Victor, and the morals aren't very good in the first place...

> Europe the Doomed Moral Victor? Are the very values that Europeans hold so dear morally right but economically wrong? Is Shapiro right, or mistaken?

Not certain, Europe giving good social security might be unrelated to have few children. and not all Europe are doomed with low birthrate (France and Scandinavia have more than 1.8 children per women).

difficulty in finding childcare facilities, reluctance of hiring female employee, school just half-day, social expectation that mother do housework and child-raising might be more important.

Scandinavian nations have relative more children compared to rest of Europe despite good social security. They make childcare obligatory in working, make maternity leave obligatory for female and male, and encourage fathers on childcare duties. Southern Catholic countries with strong beliefs that mothers shouldn't be working have much less children because women prefer single with careers, rather than abandoning it.

That whole thing seems rather sketchy to me. And is also ignoring the current financial crisis. So yeah, I don't think it has anything to do with Europe supporting its elderly. If they fail economically, it won't be because of that.