South Africa starts a UHC trial.

Barkey, I did give a link earlier to a South-African giving his reasons for leaving the country; the comments had some examples too. It doesn't seem to be one single policy, but rather a lot of small things adding up.

I don't think what a policy did in Canada can tell us that much about what it will do in South Africa, the two countries are very different. For one, South Africa has a much bigger poor / rich ratio, which counts when you're planning to take money from the rich to pay for the poor.

edited 13th Aug '11 12:51:35 PM by SlightlyEvilDoctor

Not having a system that gives the South African poor access to affordable healthcare is one thing that keeps that ratio in place, though. (Besides, can you point to any country where the rich AREN'T outnumbered by the poor? Anywhere?) You might argue the solution, but while doing so, you need to remember to address the problem.

Of course the poor outnumber the rich in most countries (maybe not in Monaco and a few others), I'm just saying that the ratio is even larger in South Africa.

No historical precedent? Two Words: Cuban Revolution.

That was rather extreme, however.

Ah well, I hope it works out for South Africa; they've had a rough time of it, historically. And if it works there, maybe America will have a new role model besides the UK and Canada...

I linked this story because I wanted to show the Yanks on this forum that even being away from the Soviet black hole, people can still think UHC is worth it.

Ideology is a powerful thing. Exclusively speaking, I think UHC is nonsensical, speaking on principle. Practically, however, it's been proven to work, and it does a better job than the current system. Hence is the disconnect in American society, between those who know the ideology isn't perfect and those who won't admit it.

Reviewing my last post, I find it amusing that I suggested that South Africa could be a role model for anyone. That's actually kind of sad. Ah well.

They have been talking about adopting this for over a decade now. I'm really happy to see it finally see some movement, even if it's going to be phased in over fourteen years. The health-care system as a whole in South Africa is definitely one the worst and least funded for a country having a relatively middle-class economy. The horror stories we hear in America (a woman dying a horrible death while waiting 10+ hours in an ER room) are commonplace in South Africa.

The conservative fear (both in and outside of South Africa) is that a successful UHC program will take the steam out of the argument to keep health-care privatized.

edited 13th Aug '11 1:50:23 PM by ForlornDreamer

@ Slightly Evil Doctor

The generalities can be used to judge the possible outcomes in another place. Simply stating that Canada and South Africa are different doesn't mean I can't use empirical outcomes in one place and never reapply them elsewhere. That would be a silly application of "it's different". I mean you might well just throw up your hands and go "I'm totally peeing in the dark, let's see where it hits."

I agree that just saying "it's different" is not enough, which is why I pointed to a specific difference as well as why it would matter.

Well okay in that case, let's analyse.

If there's a far greater rich-poor divide, which statistics show to be abhorrently true, what would be the effect?

A disproportionate amount of the taxes would be levied against the rich instead of the poor. So the poor would likely pay next to nothing, if not nothing, in terms of tax increases relating to healthcare costs. On the other hand the rich will be paying a lot more. But how much more? The usual average spending for UHC countries across the globe hovers between $2000 and $2800. So rich people will start flowing out because of a possible 3k increase in total taxes paid? That seems a bit petty.

But then, you also have to ask this, the rich are usually the ones that own businesses. So if they suffer a 3k increase in total taxes (or heck, let's say 10k in increased taxes) but each employee they have, they pay thousands less in healthcare costs, then actually they might profit. So then you might get more business instead.